Aviation and the Environment – Navigating the Future

1. Aviation and the Environment – Navigating the Future Presented to: Climate Working Group Meeting By: Mr. Carl Burleson, Director, FAA Office of Environment & Energy Date: March 29, 2006

2. Background Legislative Drivers The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) Plan Aviation and the Environment: A National Vision Issues on Aviation & Climate Scientific Uncertainties Relative Growth Policy Trade-offs International Dimension Areas for Research Work Closing Observations Outline

3. FAA Administrator 14 Aeronautics and Space Assistant Administrator for Aviation Policy, Planning & Environment Office of Environment & Energy (AEE) Organizational Context

4. Establishes National Goals Creates multi-agency cooperation (FAA, DOC, NASA, DOD, DHS) Sets 8 Transformational Strategies Develop Environmental Protection that Allows Sustained Aviation Growth US Vision for the Aviation System of 2025 Download .pdf version of the plan at www.jpdo.aero

5. U.S. Roadmap on Aviation’s Environmental Challenges • Engaged 59 stakeholders from 38 organizations • Examined Previous Studies/Reports • Resulted in a Vision Statement for Aviation and the Environment • Provides Roadmap for Environmental Strategy in Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) Plan • Provides framework for PARTNER Center of Excellence strategic plan and guiding investment http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/www/partner/index.html

6. Multiple Environmental Challenges Global climate The potential impact of aviation on global climate Community Noise Impacts Dealing with significant aircraft noise impacts around airports Air Quality Limiting or reducing impact of aviation on local air quality Water Quality Reducing significant impacts on local water quality

7. To Provide Environmental Protection that Allows Sustained Aviation Growth. • By 2025, significant environmental impacts will be reduced in absolute terms, even with the anticipated growth in aviation. • Uncertainties about aviation emissions are reduced to enable appropriate actions to address these effects. • Communities will value airports as gateways to the national and international transportation network. • U.S. aerospace will provide leadership in researching, developing, and implementing technological, operational and policy initiatives that address mobility and environmental needs.

8. Aircraft Emissions in the Environment Sun Figure adapted from 1999 Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project NASA /FAA /EPA Partnership poster ? Aircraft Emissions in the Atmosphere

9. The Many Unknowns “Further work is required to reduce scientific and other uncertainties, to understand better the options for reducing emissions, to better inform decision-makers, and to improve the understanding of the social and economic issues associated with the demand for air transport.” Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, IPCC 1999 Remaining Issues Significant progress has been made in key areas since the IPCC report. The work done has answered many important questions and has helped to focus attention on the remaining open issues: • particle emission characterization, • contrail models, • cloud models, and • General Circulation Models and climate models

10. Radiative Forcing from Aircraft Radiative Forcing From Aircraft Future: CO2 RF lasts ~300 years, cloud RF lasts ~1 day Cumulative fleet CO2 emissions over last ~50 years Short-lived clouds from emissions lasting ~1 day W/m2 2003 revision (>6%) with cirrus impact 1999 estimate (3.5%), cirrus impact uncertain Figure adapted from IPCC (1999) with additional data from Schumann (2003)

11. Aviation GHG Emissions- Relatively Modest

12. Aviation GHG Emissions – Higher Relative Growth Ahead?

13. Noise Other Emissions Fuel Burn/CO2 No Simple Solutions- Trade-offs in Reducing Impacts Continuous Descent Approach • Reduced Noise • Reduced Fuel Burn/CO2 Improved aerodynamic efficiency and reduced weight - Reduced CO2 • Reduced Noise • Reduced NOx Nacelle Modifications • Reduced Noise • Increased Fuel Burn/CO2 Increased Engine Pressure Ratio & Temperatures • Reduced Fuel Burn / CO2 • Reduced HCand CO - Increased NOx Increased engine bypass ratio • Reduced Fuel Burn / CO2 • Reduced Noise • Increased NOx

14. Aviation & Climate Issues- Key International Debate Figure from FAA System for Assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE)http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/aep/models/sage/ Aviation & Climate Issues- Key International Debate

15. An Alternative View on Aviation… “Of all the things which an ordinary person does which damage the planet, flying is far the worst.” page 7 “Flying kills. We all know it, and we all do it. And we won't stop doing it until the government reverses its policy and starts closing the runways.” Guardian, February 28, 2006

16. Recent Assessment http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/www/partner/reports/climate_rpt.pdf

17. Key Areas of Research • Improve models of long term contrail evolution (coagulation, sedimentation, interaction with atmospheric shear & turbulence) • Understand transformation of contrails to cirrus clouds • Assess satellite data to characterize contrails • Improve understanding of what controls supersaturation & cirrus formation • Enhance inventory of particulate matter & sulfate aerosols • Acquire real world measurements from field studies • Assess aviation signature within climate models To be refined at Aviation Climate Workshop June 7-9

18. Closing Observations • Next Generation Air Transportation System Plan Underway • Aviation and climate impacts – key environmental uncertainty • Aviation and climate impacts- the focus of international debate • Need NOAA Support at Aviation Climate Workshop to help define a way forward