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Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification

Integration of NCAR DART-EnKF to NCAR-ATEC multi-model, multi-physics and mutli- perturbantion ensemble-RTFDDA (E-4DWX) forecasting system.

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Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification

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  1. Integration of NCAR DART-EnKF to NCAR-ATEC multi-model, multi-physics and mutli- perturbantion ensemble-RTFDDA (E-4DWX) forecasting system Linlin Pan 1, Yubao Liu 1, Gregory Roux 1, Wanli Wu 1, Yonghui Wu 1, Jason Knievel 1, John Pace 2, Scott Halvorson 2, Frank Gallagher 2 1NCAR/Research Application Laboratory 2Dugway Proving Ground, US Army

  2. Outline • Introduction: E-RTFDDA • New enhancement to E-RTFDDA • Preliminary verification • Summary and future work

  3. RTFDDA  E-RTFDDA

  4. E-RTFDDA Perturbation Approaches Perturbations in components may be combined Radiation Precipitation Upper-air weather forcing Vegetation … ECMWF GFS NAM LSM LDAS Stat. perturb. Other. Perturb. Parameters Physics Schemes and Parameter perturbations MM5 WRF Cycling Perturbations And scaling Obs Data Assimilation ETKF Weights  200+ members

  5. E-RTFDDA Design and New Features • Multimodal models WRF-ARW, MM5, WRF-NMM • Multi-boundary conditions GFS, NAM, GEM • Multi-physics Major WRF physics parameterization schemes; Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscattering • Multiple data assimilation RTFDDA, 3DVAR, DART-EnKF

  6. Case description and experiment design • 2012033118 – 2012040318 • Western US

  7. 06 Z, April 1, 2012 (6h Forecasts) GEM GFS DART NAM

  8. Surface Observations DART-ENKF

  9. Wind Speed GEM NAM GFS DART Wind Direction GEM NAM GFS DART

  10. Spread of U, valid at 20120406, 6h fcsts GEM GFS NAM DART

  11. Spread of V, valid at 20120406, 6h fcsts GFS GEM NAM DART

  12. Spread of T, valid at 20120406, 6h fcsts GEM GFS NAM DART

  13. Combined spread U U V V All gfs+nam

  14. (need a meaningful title here!)

  15. Summary • NCAR E-RTFDDA is a multi-model, multi-physics, multi-boundary conditions, multi-data assimilation scheme, mesoscale ensemble weather analysis and forecast system for real-time operational forecasting. • In the present work, we introduces several enhancements to the E-RTFDDA perturbation schemes， using WRF-NMM, GEM, DART-ENKF and SKEB model and/or technologies. • Initial tests show that these additional perturbation schemes work properly， and help mitigate the known underestimation of the E-RTFDDA spread. • Currently we are implemented these technologies into the operational E-RTFDDA systems. Validation of the real-time forecasts will be conducted to further quantify the effect.

  16. Combined spread T

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