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Motivation. Visit to South Africa John from Kenya. Acknowledgements. Institute for Policy & Social Research (IPSR) Undergraduate Research Assistantship Fund Department of Economics Research Assistants: Komla, Kay and Ibrahima. Why is HIV/AIDS a Challenge?.
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Motivation • Visit to South Africa • John from Kenya
Acknowledgements Institute for Policy & Social Research (IPSR) Undergraduate Research Assistantship Fund Department of Economics Research Assistants: Komla, Kay and Ibrahima
Why is HIV/AIDS a Challenge? “We cannot talk about more inclusive and sustainable development in Africa without also committing to the long-term battle against AIDS, the largest single cause of premature death on the continent” Robert B. Zoellick, President,World Bank, 2007
Why is HIV/AIDS a Challenge? “If nothing changes the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa will be 18 percent less by 2020, representing a cumulative shortfall of $144 Billion in lost growth due to HIV/AIDS.” International Labor Organization (ILO), 2005.
Presentation Plan • Establish that HIV/AIDS is more prevalent in SSA than in other regions. • Show the trends in HIV prevalence in selected countries in SSA. • Discuss the effect of the epidemic. • Use Lesotho and Uganda as a case study for discussion.
People living with HIV/AIDS (33.0 million):2007 The majority of people living with the disease live in SSA.
Newly Infected People (2.7 million):2007 SSA has the highest (new) infection rate.
Deaths due to AIDS (2.0 million), 2007 The number of deaths due to AIDS is higher in SSA than other regions.
High HIV/AIDS Countries, 2007 Countries with highest HIV prevalence rates are in Southern Africa
Percentage of Firms in South Africa reporting that they have hired extra people to compensate for the anticipated loss in productivity, absenteeism and mortality (shadowing)
Percentage of Firms in South Africa reporting that HIV/AIDS will have a significant adverse impact on future profits
Other Effects of HIV/AIDS include • Loss of household income • Low investment in education • Higher spending on health care (less resources for infrastructure, education) • Decline in current and future growth
Is Africa a lost case? “We can see where countries are starting to gain the upper hand against AIDS, and we need to learn from these examples, multiply these results, and be unrelenting in fighting this disease.” -Robert B. Zoellick , President, World Bank
What did Uganda do right? • Embarked on an aggressive campaign to educate people about HIV/AIDS. • Launched the ABC program: • A=Abstain from sex • B=Be faithful to your partner • C= Use condoms
Knowledge of HIV/AIDS: Survey Data Examine the percentage of adults who know that: • A healthy looking person can have HIV/AIDS. • The risk of getting the AIDS virus may be reduced by • Abstaining from sex • Using condoms • Having sex with just one uninfected partner • AIDS can be transmitted from mother to child. • AIDS cannot be transmitted by • Mosquito bites • Sharing food
Uganda:% of Population who know that AIDS can be prevented by
Information Campaign in Lesotho Question: Which population group should be targeted? Which group has the highest prevalence rates? • Rural/Urban? • Male/Female? • The educated? • The poor? • Catholics?
Prevalence Rates for Population Groups in Lesotho, 2004 Description of Data Source: Demographic Health Survey • Representative sample • Adults aged 15-49 years • No. of people tested: 5043 • Females: 60% ; Males: 40% • Rural:77%; Urban: 23%
Some Puzzling Results: HIV/AIDS Prevalence among Couples in Lesotho Number of couples: 580 Both HIV negative: 385 (66%) Both HIV Positive: 117 (20%) Man Positive, woman negative: 52 (9%) Woman positive, man negative: 26 (5%)