PROACTIVE FAILURE PREDICTION (REVERSE “TRIZ”) InfraGard™ MEETING, 6/10/03 ORLANDO, FL Jack Hipple Innovation-TRIZ Tampa,

1. INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC. PROACTIVE FAILURE PREDICTION (REVERSE “TRIZ”) InfraGard™ MEETING, 6/10/03 ORLANDO, FL Jack Hipple Innovation-TRIZ Tampa, FL www.innovation-triz.com 813-994-9999

2. OBJECTIVES • Familiarize you with the basic concepts of Inventive Problem Solving/TRIZ • Explain and demonstrate “reverse” TRIZ or Pro-active Failure Prediction • Change the way you think about solving problems • Introduce you to new ways to think about failure analysis/prediction, and future planning • Discuss linkage with other failure prediction tools you may be using

3. OBJECTIVES • Education and sharing • Desire for input

4. BEFORE WE START….LET’S BENCHMARK • MACHINE REPLACES MAN • CASE STUDY • A robot was brought to a plant to operate a machine. After it was rigged up and switched on, the elderly worker who had operated the machine for years was amazed at seeing the nimble “iron man” performing all the necessary steps. • A half an hour later, however, the robot came to a standstill, to the bewilderment of the service team of electronic engineers. What happened? As it turned out, some chips had fallen from the workpiece into the moving elements of the machine. This situation where a human worker would simply flip the chips away with a broom and continue working brought the robot to a deadlock. The engineers cleaned the machine with a broom, switched on the robot…only to see the robot stop again. How could this problem be solved? Obviously, one cannot attach a human worker with a broom to the robot…… • Source: TRIZ: The Right Solution at the Right Time, p3, used with permission

5. BEFORE “REVERSE” TRIZ, WE NEED TO REVIEW “NORMAL” TRIZ

6. WHAT IS “TRIZ” ? A Russian acronym: Theoria Resheneyva Isobretatelskehuh Zadach (Theory of Solving Problems Inventively)

7. WHAT IS “TRIZ” ? • A way of thinking • A family of tools, tool kits, and software The “way of thinking” can ALWAYS be used, but the tools in the tool kit can be selected depending on the nature of the problem, time available, etc.

8. THE HISTORY OF TRIZ • A discovery of a brilliant patent examiner for the Russian navy, Genrich Altshuller, 1950’s--studied hundreds of thousands of patents • He recognized that the development of technological systems follows predictable patterns that cut across ALL areas of technology--the speed of technical evolution can be accelerated • Also recognized that problem solving principles are also predictable and repeatable--anyone can invent! • Established schools to teach after a Stalin 7 yr. prison term--deceased in 1999 at age 71 • “Reverse” TRIZ was developed around 1970

9. WHAT TO USE TRIZ FOR • Level 2-4 problems • 1--straightforward engineering design • 2--simple contradictions • 3--difficult design and manufacturing contradictions (WHAT IS NORMAL APPROACH?) • 4--extremely difficult system design problems (“intestine problems”) • 5--invention of new science • Level 4 can require looking at hundreds of thousands of potential solutions and take many years of effort within an organization

10. WHAT TO USE TRIZ FOR • Safety/security analogs? • 1--straightforward engineering design • 2--simple contradictions • 3--difficult design and manufacturing contradictions (WHAT IS NORMAL APPROACH?) • 4--extremely difficult system design problems (“intestine problems”) • 5--invention of new science

11. IDENTIFY IMPLEMENT TOOLS Six Sigma, QFD, TOC TRIZ/ CPS/Six Hats Robust design/JIT WHERE DOES IT FIT?

12. VS. OTHER “CREATIVITY” TOOLS • Based on science and not psychology • Takes time to learn and practice • Time consuming on the problem definition side--pays dividends, but some people prefer to solve the wrong problem several times and appear to be doing something useful

13. THE OUTPUT OF THE PROCESS • Generates solution paths and concepts of solution, NOT engineering drawings and detailed plans • A better, more clearly defined problem and project • New and nearly exhaustive set of concepts

14. THINKING OUTSIDE YOUR PARADIGM SPACE IMPOSSIBLE 9/11? POSSIBLE TIME EVENTS AND EXPERIENCES SHAPE OUR BELIEF SYSTEM!!! DISCUSSION

15. THE SOLUTION SPACE Mechanical Effects & Technology Thermo-Dynamics P roblem Chemical Effects & Technology Electrical & Magnetic Effects & Technology S olution ®Ideation International, used by permission

16. HOW WE SOLVE PROBLEMS USING THE TRIAL & ERROR METHOD Variants Variants Variants Concept 3 Variants Concept N-1 Concept 2 Psychological Inertia Vector Variants Concept N Concept 1 P problem S solution ®Ideation International, used by permission

17. PSYCHOLOGICAL INERTIA COMES IN MANY FORMS • Habits • Beliefs • History/Tradition • Policies/Procedures • Rules/Guidelines • Education • Past experiences OTHERS? ®Ideation International, used by permission

18. “A GOOD THING” • Psychological inertia is “good” • Basis for our brain’s stability • Usually good that we follow it • Protects the mind from doing unproductive work • Utilizes past experiences and knowledge • Good that we can remember, memorize and use • Storage of ready-made decisions keeps the brain free which allows work to be done in parallel • Basis for stable society • Any kind of change is potentially bad or dangerous • There is always a need to stabilize situations ®Ideation International, used by permission -

19. A “NORMAL” PERSON’S VIEW... How does a centrifuge work?

20. INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC. THE BAKER’S VIEW The Waissenberg Effect When the motion of certain liquids is altered, the liquid achieves a highly plastic state. This state is caused by stress which is normal to the plane of the altered motion. For example, if a rotating shaft emerges from a pool of liquid, the liquid will rise along the shaft. This effect is observed in solutions, in molten polymers, and in gels of low molecular weight. The effect is used to develop extruders that do not use spiral impellers. A characteristic of this effect is that, as the speed of motion increases, the stability of the flow decreases

21. PARALLEL UNIVERSES • Many other industries or technologies face the same type of problems in a generic sense • It’s almost impossible to follow all areas of technology, read all literature, go to all meetings • Accidents or alerts sometimes change this, but it is normally not proactive in most organizations • In planning the future, it is CRITICAL to be aware of advances in ALL fields of technology • Advances in unknown areas can forecast advances in known areas

22. INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC. WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Let’s take a look at some examples…..

23. AN INVENTIVE PRINCIPLE: CONCEPT OF AN OPERATOR Operator Example Specific problem Specialized solution 3x2+5x+2 = 0 x = ???? ALGEBRA DOES NOT EXIST--HOW DO WE SOLVE?

24. AN OPERATOR Operator Example Specific problem Specialized solution 3x2+5x+2 = 0 x= -1, -2/3 Trial and Error!!

25. AN OPERATOR--THE BASIC PRINCIPLE OF TRIZ Operator Example Abstract problem Abstract solution ax2+bx+c = 0 x=(-b+/-b2-4ac)/2a Specific problem Specialized solution 3x2+5x+2 = 0 x= -1, -2/3 TRIZ DOES FOR PROBLEM SOLVING AND FORECASTING WHAT ALGEBRA DOES FOR EQUATION PROBLEM SOLVING!

26. INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC. I am designing a food processing plant requiring “destemmed” peppers----how would I do this?

27. PATTERNS OF INVENTION Processing Sweet Peppers ®Ideation International, used by permission

28. WHAT IS THE “INVENTIVE PRINCIPLE”?HOW DID WE SOLVE THE PROBLEM? “Slowly raise pressure and suddenly reduce it” or “slowly store energy and suddenly release it” • A path to a solution • An approach to solving a problem • A direction towards an answer

29. PATTERNS OF INVENTION • Removing stems from bell peppers • Removing shells form sunflower seeds • Cleaning filters • Unpacking parts wrapped in protective paper • Splitting diamonds along micro-cracks • Producing sugar powder from sugar crystals • Explosive depulping

30. PATTERNS OF INVENTION • Removing stems from bell peppers (1945) • Removing shells form sunflower seeds • Cleaning filters • Unpacking parts wrapped in protective paper • Splitting diamonds along micro-cracks (1972) • (+27 years after pepper patent) • Producing sugar powder from sugar crystals • Explosive depulping

31. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 My Problem n Many Typical Recommendations for Solutions (Knowledge base) Many Typical Problems A large number of typical problems are available for consideration TRIZ help to marrow the search to a manageable range of typical problems For each typical problem, there are one or more potential solutions 1 2 3 To Corresponding Solutions Prism of TRIZ - Analytical tools 4 5 6 7 8 9 n My Solution ®Ideation International, used by permission

32. BOEING RETHINKS AIRPLANE BUILDING

35. THE STORY OF THE CAVIAR EGGS AND BALL BEARINGS

36. THE BOTTOM LINE... MOST PROBLEMS THAT WE SOLVE AND MOST PATHS OF EVOLUTION OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS ARE ALREADY KNOWN----THIS IS A MAJORPSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER WHAT WE HAVE TO DO IS TO RECOGNIZE OTHERS’ PROBLEMS AND TECHNOLIGIES IN GENERIC FORM (IN DISGUISE?) SOME PEOPLE MAKE A CAREER OUT OF MAKING THEIR PROBLEM SEEM TRULY UNIQE

37. “DEFALCATION” From a Bank of Montreal problem questionnaire: “The purpose is to reduce/eliminate defalcation when criminals use false ID to impersonate real customers” Does anyone know what this word means?

38. GENERICIZING OPERATORS • Defalcation • Fraud • Substitution of one thing for another • What differences would you see in a literature search for these various topics?

39. EXAMPLES OF JARGON IN YOUR AREA... JARGON PHRASE MORE GENERIC DESCRIPTION 1. 2. 3. 4. FLIP CHART

40. OTHER INDUSTRIESWITH SIMILAR PROBLEMS--FAILURE PROBLEMS? • Food processing? • Water quality? • Chemical releases? • ? • ? • ?

41. INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC. IDEALITY AND RESOURCES THE BASIC TRIZ PRINCIPLES THAT UNDERLIE SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND PATTERNS OF PROBLEM SOLVING

42. WHAT IS IDEALITY (IDEAL FINAL RESULT)? Ideality All Useful Functions All HarmfulFunctions = The ideal system performs a required function without actually existing. The function is often performed using existing resources. ALL systems evolve in this direction over time by resolving contradictions. ®Ideation International, used by permission

43. CHAMBER DESTRUCTION PROBLEM Container Acid Specimen ®Ideation International, used by permission

44. CHAMBER DESTRUCTION PROBLEM Acid Specimen ®Ideation International, used by permission

45. CHAMBER DESTRUCTION PROBLEM Acid Specimen/ Container ®Ideation International, used by permission

46. INNOVATION-TRIZ,INC. IDEALITY WHAT’S THE IDEAL FINAL RESULT/DESCRIPTION OF IDEALITY IN THE “NEW MACHINE” PROBLEM?

47. LET’S REVISIT THE NEW MACHINE • MACHINE REPLACES MAN • CASE STUDY • A robot was brought to a plant to operate a machine. After it was rigged up and switched on, the elderly worker who had operated the machine for years was amazed at seeing the nimble “iron man” performing all the necessary steps. • A half an hour later, however, the robot came to a standstill, to the bewilderment of the service team of electronic engineers. What happened? As it turned out, some chips had fallen from the workpiece into the moving elements of the machine. This situation where a human worker would simply flip the chips away with a broom and continue working brought the robot to a deadlock. The engineers cleaned the machine with a broom, switched on the robot…only to see the robot stop again. How could this problem be solved? Obviously, one cannot attach a human worker with a broom to the robot…… • Source: TRIZ: The Right Solution at the Right Time, p3, used by permission

48. HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE “REVERSE” IDEALITY IN THIS CASE?

49. HOW DO WE GET TO IDEALITY? • TRIZ provides two general approaches for achieving close-to-ideal solutions (that is, solutions which do not increase system complexity): • Use of resources • Use of physical, chemical, geometrical and other effects (remember the Waissenberg effect?) -

50. WHAT’S A RESOURCE FROM A TRIZ PERSPECTIVE? • A resource: • is any substance (including waste) available in the system or its environment • has the functional and technological ability to jointly perform additional functions • is an energy reserve, free time, unoccupied space, information, etc.