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surviving the recession in merton

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surviving the recession in merton

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    3. Structure of workshop Part One : Surviving the recession in Merton Britain in recession The most vulnerable local economies The most vulnerable local communities Potential impact over the next 12 months Implications for Merton Part Two: Developing a Recession Action Plan

    4. Surviving the recession

    5. Stock markets

    6. A global phenomenon

    7. UK GDP Forecasts

    8. Property transactions

    9. Consumer Spending in last two recessionsQuarters from a year before recession start

    10. UK Car Production

    11. UK internet flights searches, ‘08

    12. UK Employment Change

    13. Unemployment Change

    14. Most vulnerable local economies

    15. Most vulnerable sectors Financial services Other business services Construction Transport Manufacturing Retail, hotels and restaurants

    16. Financial servicesSIC 65 - Financial Intermediation, Except Insurance and Pension FundingSIC 67 – Activities Auxiliary to Financial Intermediation Lloyds/HBOS - 20,000 job losses “Finance axe threatens 70,000” “London set to lose 194,000 jobs in next 2 years” Morgan Stanley – 2,000 redundancies RBS – 3,000 redundancies Friends Provident job losses in Manchester Citi Group 52,000 job losses worldwide, 2,400 in London Credit Suisse begins laying off 600 Goldman Sachs begins laying off 500 Bank of America announces 30,000 global job losses Santander to cut 1,900 UK jobs Barclays cuts 400 IT jobs Newcastle Building society to make 150 redundant Legal & General plans to cut 450 jobs Standard Life cuts 195 sales jobs Nomura 1,000 redundancies HSBC 500 redundancies Royal Sun Alliance to cut 1,200 jobs Barclays announces 4,000 job losses RBS planning up to 2,300 job cuts Newcastle building Society to make 150 redundancies Dunfermline Building Society

    17. Financial servicesSIC 65 - Financial Intermediation, Except Insurance and Pension FundingSIC 67 – Activities Auxiliary to Financial Intermediation

    18. Other business servicesSIC 74.11 – Legal activitiesSIC 74.2 – Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy Hammonds axes 77 jobs Blake Lapthorn announces a further 30 redundancies Linklaters axes 20 lawyers Fosters architects to make 400 redundant Atkins cuts 260 jobs from its UK regional design operations SJ Baldwin launches redundancy talks for 50 posts Conveyancing firm Hammond Support Systems lays off 200 Communications firm EM lays off 40 264 workers at GKN’s Aldridge plant face redundancy Sitel axes 220 workers capita will cut up t0 42 jobs at call centres it runs for PC World DLA set to cut up to 140 in new redundancy round Solicitors A&L Goodbody seeking 45 voluntary redundancies Clifford Chance to axe up to 80 London lawyers Solicitor Freet Cartwright begin redundancy talks with 60 staff Thorntons solicitors set to cut between 40 and 50 jobs Linklaters lets 270 workers go

    20. TransportSIC60 – Land transport; SIC 61 – Water transport; SIC 62 – Air transport BMI abandons long-haul flights from Manchester” “Babcote Marine, Devonport – 300 jobs “Cathay Pacific at risk” Selct Yacht Group, Cornwall” Gwynedd Trailor Manufacturing – 45 National Express – 300 jobs Associated British Ports – 45 jobs Freight company EWS axes 530 jobs Bombardier announces 45 redundancies National Express to cut 750 jobs South Eastern rail to cut 300 jobs Stagecoach cuts profits on London job fears London Underground to axe 1,000 non-operational jobs Car leasing firm Arval makes 8- redundancies Train operators to face fare cuts and fewer passengers Bus builder Wrightbus announces 235 redundancies Atlas Holidays, caravan makers, to shut South West Trains to lay off 480 workers Southeastern Rail to cut 300 jobs New job cuts planned by South West Trains have taken total number announced to 660 in a month Port of Dover seeks 24 voluntary redundancies Felixtowe port to axe 100 workers BA to shed 100 jobs at Gatwick Prestwick Airport to axe up to 120 jobs Air passenger numbers to drop 6.3%

    22. ManufacturingSIC 21 – Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products publishing and printingSIC 27 – Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal productsSIC 30 – Manufacture of office machinery and computersSIC 34 – Manufacture of motor vehicles Jaguar Rover – 600 jobs General Motors losses Calsonic Kawai, Llenelli – 60 jobs Nissan – voluntary redundancies Swift Caravans – 99 jobs Castings plc, Black Country, jobs threatened George W King components, Letchworth – 200 jobs Bosch Alternators, S Wales – 250 jobs Tonyefail car parts, Rhondda– 50 jobs Rolls Royce – 2,000 jobs under threat Corus – 400 jobs Caterpillar remanfg, Shrewsbury – job losses Antenna mang, S Warwickshire – 345 jobs Cookson Moulds – unprecedented market conditions Anglo Dutch Steel – 30% reductions Leyland Truckmakers – 250 jobs BAe Systems, Army Division – 200 jobs Nissan plant to shed 1,200 jobs LDV hopes fade Newspaper group to axe 250 jobs Trinity Mirror cuts 70 jobs FT to make 80 redundancies St Ives printers shed 170 jobs

    23. ManufacturingSIC 21 – Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products publishing and printingSIC 27 – Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal productsSIC 30 – Manufacture of office machinery and computersSIC 34 – Manufacture of motor vehicles

    24. ConstructionSIC 45 - Construction Taylor Wimpey – 600 jobs Connex, Cambs – 87 jobs Hanson Bricks, Leeds – 45 jobs David McLean Homes, Flintshire – 130 jobs JCB, Wrexham – 400 jobs Marshalls Wolesley Group – 150 jobs Kingspar Insulation manfg, N Herts – 82 jobs Terrex, Newhouse – 130 jobs Multi Development UK “significant job losses” Cumbria G Middleton collapses Bovis home builders to axe 1,000 jobs Travis Perkins to cut 1,400+ Over 1,000 construction apprentices have now been made redundant G Middleton Builders closes with loss of 48 jobs 90,000 building jobs under threat Travis Perkins to cut 1,400+ jobs Bovis Home builders to axe 1,000 jobs by March Barratt plunges to Ł592m pre-tax loss

    25. ConstructionSIC 45 - Construction

    26. Retail, hotels, restaurantsSIC 52 – Retail tradeSIC 55 – Hotels and restaurants “Plunge in high street sales” “Next sales down 4.4%” “Wave of redundancies expected at Homebase” “Three pubs per week to close across East Midlands” “Punch pubs selling 500 less profitable pubs” “Woolworths retail division likely to be placed in administration” MFI closes, with loss of 1,400 jobs Officers Club closes with hundreds of job losses USC set to close 43 stores with loss of 300 jobs M&S closes 25 Simply Food stores Zavvi closes 18 stores with loss of 353 jobs Shop Direct closes Merseyside call centre with loss of 1,000 jobs Land of Leather closes 33 stores, 95 redundancies Carphone Warehouse to announce 400 job cuts Sainsbury’s to axe up to 300 jobs from head office Reebok closes office in Bolton, with loss of 160 jobs 250 jobs at Halford stores go Electrical goods retailer Empire Direct goes into administration, with loss of 158 jobs Grattan to make four figure redundancies John Lewis closes Stevenage distribution centre, with loss of 140 jobs JJB pulls plug on loss making shoe chains M&S closes 25 Simply Food stores - 750 jobs lost plus 450 head office jobs Punch Taverns to make 100 staff redundant Fortnum & Mason lays off 55 staff Real Hotel Company administrators close 4 hotels with loss of 150 jobs

    27. Retail, hotels, restaurantsSIC 52 – Retail tradeSIC 55 – Hotels and restaurants

    28. Post & telecommunicationsSIC 64 – Post and telecommunication AT&A plans to cull 4% of workforce Vodafone makes 500 staff redundant Yahoo to cut up to 1,500 jobs globally, majority in US and UK Communications firm KCOM axes 150 workers UK parcel delivery carrier, Home Delivery Network axes 700 jobs Cable and Wireless cuts 600 jobs

    30. Most vulnerable local economies Employment in the most vulnerable sectors

    31. Employment in most vulnerable sectors

    32. Profile of employment in vulnerable sectors

    33. Most vulnerable communities

    34. Financial servicesSIC 65 - Financial Intermediation, Except Insurance and Pension FundingSIC 67 – Activities Auxiliary to Financial Intermediation

    35. Other business servicesSIC 74.11 – Legal activitiesSIC 74.2 – Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy

    36. TransportSIC60 – Land transport; SIC 61 – Water transport; SIC 62 – Air transport

    37. ManufacturingSIC 21 – Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products publishing and printingSIC 27 – Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal productsSIC 30 – Manufacture of office machinery and computersSIC 34 – Manufacture of motor vehicles

    38. ConstructionSIC 45 - Construction

    39. Retail, hotels, restaurantsSIC 52 – Retail tradeSIC 55 – Hotels and restaurants

    41. Workforce in most vulnerable sectors

    42. Profile of workforce employed in vulnerable sectors

    43. Most vulnerable placeslevel of employment in most vulnerable sectors

    44. Impact on local economiesemployment in the most vulnerable sectors as % of total employment

    45. Impact on local communitiesemployment in the most vulnerable sectors as % of total workforce

    46. Most vulnerable placesemployment in most vulnerable sectors as % of employment base/workforce

    48. Job losses 2008-09 - assumptions

    49. Potential job lossesJan-Dec 2009

    50. Potential job lossesJan-Dec 2009

    51. Potential job lossesJan-Dec 2009

    52. Potential increase in unemploymentJan-Dec 2009

    53. Potential increase in unemploymentJan-Dec 2009

    54. Impact on local unemployment ratesProjected increase in unemployment rates to end 2009

    55. Summary of potential impact on Merton

    56. What LSPs can do to help

    57. Measures to support businesses Paying businesses within 10 days of receiving invoices Encouraging local businesses to tender for Council contracts Provision of tailored business support

    58. Measures to support people Encouraging take-up of benefits Provision or augmentation of debt or financial advice Provision of free energy efficiency advice Supporting credit unions Creation of apprenticeship schemes Worklessness projects

    59. Measures to support homes Fats-track authorities for the mortgage rescue scheme Local mortgage assistance schemes Provision of housing advice and guidance services

    60. Measures that LSPs can take

    61. Sectors less affected by recession Agriculture Utilities Chemicals and pharmaceuticals Environmental technologies/renewable energy Home entertainment Education Health Public services

    62. Planning for recovery

    63. Preparing a Local Economic Assessment

    64. How local economic assessments fit into local and regional strategy development

    65. Core principlesCommunities and Local Government Identify the economic linkages, including the links between the urban and rural economies, within the area of the assessment and between it and the wider economy. Identify the comparative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the local economy. Review the key ways in which local authorities and their partners influence local economic development and their impact. Review the regeneration challenges of the area. Analyse causes of worklessness. Consider the impact of local economic development on the environment, and how the local economy will be affected by the transition to a low-carbon economy. Local Democracy, Economic Development & Construction Bill: Local Economic Assessments, Policy Statement, CLG January 2009

    66. Key Principles Association of Regional Observatories Policy decisions should be underpinned by a robust evidential base A clear vision for the future of an area should be based on an understanding of the direction of travel, trends and projections The evidence base underlying the strategy should have a breadth of content whilst retaining a clear, accessible focus The local evidence base should be accompanied by a narrative and context for the area in question Robust data at appropriate spatial levels should be made available Greater use should be made of qualitative data in developing the single evidence base Monitoring and evaluation of programmes and policies should receive increased priority Expertise and capacity to deliver the SNR should be understood, retained and developed The importance of joint approaches, collaborative work and consensus must be underlined and supported

    67. Core evidence baseIDeA/ Association of Regional Observatories Demography: population structure, change and projection Housing: nature of stock, affordability, projections, past/current delivery Economy: drivers of productivity, industrial structure, economic forecasts Labour market: participation, demand for and supply of skills Economic inclusion: deprivation, equalities, barriers to participation Transport: congestion, freight, public transport use, connectivity Infrastructure: construction, property, employment land Environment: emissions, waste, energy, biodiversity, climate change, water use, minerals Social and quality of life issues: education, health, culture, impact of globalisation Regional Observatories/IDeA

    68. A nine step guideIDeA Acknowledge local politics Clarify the role of local stakeholders and partners The understanding of an economic assessment should include a broad definition of ‘economic’ Local economic assessments should include a commonly agreed core while retaining local flexibility Story of place The importance of the other spatial levels The assessments need to be continually reviewed Communication Emphasise and support joint approaches, collaborative work and consensus Improvement and Development Agency

    69. Principles A common evidence base Futures thinking A shared vision An inclusive process Monitoring and review

    70. 1. A common evidence base

    71. Joined-up thinking Joined-up thinking In all of our work we try to connect the economic, social and environmental agendas and encourage joined-up thinking. Our frame of reference is this E3 model, which simply tries to illustrate that long-term sustainability requires a balance between economic competitiveness, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This is reflected in Local Knowledge, where in data/content we try to cover all 3 areas off a single platformJoined-up thinking In all of our work we try to connect the economic, social and environmental agendas and encourage joined-up thinking. Our frame of reference is this E3 model, which simply tries to illustrate that long-term sustainability requires a balance between economic competitiveness, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This is reflected in Local Knowledge, where in data/content we try to cover all 3 areas off a single platform

    72. At different spatial levels

    73. Identifying economic linkages

    74. Stories of place

    75. Typologies of place

    76. 2. Futures thinking

    78. Impact and implications

    79. Scenarios for the future

    80. 3. A shared vision

    81. A vision for sustainable economic prosperity Joined-up thinking In all of our work we try to connect the economic, social and environmental agendas and encourage joined-up thinking. Our frame of reference is this E3 model, which simply tries to illustrate that long-term sustainability requires a balance between economic competitiveness, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This is reflected in Local Knowledge, where in data/content we try to cover all 3 areas off a single platformJoined-up thinking In all of our work we try to connect the economic, social and environmental agendas and encourage joined-up thinking. Our frame of reference is this E3 model, which simply tries to illustrate that long-term sustainability requires a balance between economic competitiveness, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This is reflected in Local Knowledge, where in data/content we try to cover all 3 areas off a single platform

    82. A vision for sustainable economic prosperity Joined-up thinking In all of our work we try to connect the economic, social and environmental agendas and encourage joined-up thinking. Our frame of reference is this E3 model, which simply tries to illustrate that long-term sustainability requires a balance between economic competitiveness, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This is reflected in Local Knowledge, where in data/content we try to cover all 3 areas off a single platformJoined-up thinking In all of our work we try to connect the economic, social and environmental agendas and encourage joined-up thinking. Our frame of reference is this E3 model, which simply tries to illustrate that long-term sustainability requires a balance between economic competitiveness, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This is reflected in Local Knowledge, where in data/content we try to cover all 3 areas off a single platform

    83. Core values - Berkshire Championing enterprise, innovation and entrepreneurship Promoting social cohesion Demanding high quality Sustainable policy Embracing diversity Intelligence led policy and delivery A learning culture

    84. Strategic priorities - Berkshire Enterprise and skills Transport infrastructure Global competitiveness Sustainable prosperity

    85. 4. An inclusive process

    86. Key partners Regional Development Agency Integrated Transport Authority Jobcentre Plus Homes and Communities Agency Highways Agency Learning & Skills Council Economic Prosperity Board National Park Authority The Arts Council for England Environment Agency Sport England English Heritage Natural England Museums, Libraries and Archives Council Fire and Rescue Authority Other key partners Local businesses Voluntary and community sector Social enterprises Parish and town councils Representative organisations Environmental partners Neighbouring local authorities

    87. A phased approach

    88. 5. Monitoring and review

    89. Monitoring and review A common/shared evidence base Constant monitoring of a fast-changing world A new culture that shares knowledge and anticipates the future

    90. Critical success factors Leadership Cross sector engagement Holistic approach An inclusive process Core values A single author A phased approach

    91. A vision for sustainable economic prosperity Joined-up thinking In all of our work we try to connect the economic, social and environmental agendas and encourage joined-up thinking. Our frame of reference is this E3 model, which simply tries to illustrate that long-term sustainability requires a balance between economic competitiveness, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This is reflected in Local Knowledge, where in data/content we try to cover all 3 areas off a single platformJoined-up thinking In all of our work we try to connect the economic, social and environmental agendas and encourage joined-up thinking. Our frame of reference is this E3 model, which simply tries to illustrate that long-term sustainability requires a balance between economic competitiveness, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. This is reflected in Local Knowledge, where in data/content we try to cover all 3 areas off a single platform

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