Internships in DC

1. Internships in DC James Ellickson-Brown of the US Department of State is holding an information session as part of the Career Fair. There are internship opportunities in the Office of the Science Advisor and in the Bureau of Oceans and Environment. C4C at 4 PM Thursday January 30. I can also arrange individual meetings Th and Fr

3. https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?EventID=1356389https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?EventID=1356389

4. Home page www.colorado.edu/physics/phys3070/phys3070_sp14

5. Today The future of oil Hubbert curves All power point images are only for the exclusive use of Phys3070/Envs3070 Spring term 2014

8. Science 317, page 437 27 July 2007

9. ‘Casandras’ predictions?----read the Iliad!

11. Oil is a global commodity, hence we care about global reserves. How much? Where? Trends?

12. Reserves? • Proven reserves90% probability of being recoverable with current technology and under current economic and political conditions. Usually, having drilled. • Probable50 % probability. Perhaps by seismic data. • Possible10% probability, usually just by similar geology • AND-the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve=727 million bbl (Fig. 2.2US production 2 billion bbl/year)

17. How long will it last? Time = bbl / (bbl/year) Reserves to production ratio R / P

18. 2008 by region Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio Years 40 years 60 years

20. The Hubbert Curve New resource is found, with a growing market Production rises, initially exponentially The resource begins to be used up Production falls

21. Hubbert (1956) • ‘symmetric logistic distribution’ curve • Rate = Q/t e[(t-to)/t] / {1+e[t-to)/t]}2 (symmetric about t=t0, use the absolute value of |t-t0| • Q= total amount underground ( bbl ) • t0= time of the maximum • t a measure of the width of the distribution • Maximum rate (at t=t0) = Q/4t (bbl/year) • Initially, when t is small,  an exponential initial rate = Q/ t e[+(t-t0)/t] Three parameters to fit the early times

23. Norwegian oil

24. How much oil can we get?‘recovery factor’ • Only about 1/3 of the oil in the ground can be recovered. • Estimates vary widely (Table 2.1), 21 to 458 billion bbl, • Let’s use text value 134 billion bbl • Price ~$100/bbl ‘West Texas Sweet’ or ‘Brent’

25. Projections • Exploration—find it • Extraction technologies—drilling • Location-deep water, Arctic • Shipping—tankers, pipelines • Quality, processing • Anticipated price • Competition, undercutting prices

28. So we just buy oil, right? (At some price)

30. Friday Gas—Chapter 2.8-2.11 Monday Feb. 3- coal Chapter 2.12-2.13 Homework set 2 is due Wed Feb 5, nonconventional oil and gas ‘fracking’ Fri Feb 7, making gasoline extra reading- Coaltoliquids.net; wikipedia; www.liquidcoal.com “Coal in your Gas Tank”

31. ENVS3070/PHYS3070 Homework #2, (oil and gas) due in class Monday February 3. 2014 1.(10 points) Imagine that we can get all of the oil out of the oil shale deposits of the Green River Formation (Table 2.8). The US currently consumes 19 million bbl of oil per day. How many years would the shale oil last if we used only this source? 2. (R and K problem 2.7, altered) On a cold day, a home furnace consumes one million BTU of heat energy from natural gas. A) (5 points) How many hundred cubic feet of gas (CCF) is that? B) (5 points) Some of the heat energy is lost through the chimney stack, with only 80% useful to heat the house. How many BTU is that? How many Joules? c)(10 points) I recently paid $27.02 for 78 hundred cubic feet (CCF) of gas, not including taxes and fees. How much will I pay for gas heat in a very cold week at that same rate of consumption? 3.(10 points) (R and K 11, modified) How many Joules of energy are required to lift one barrel of crude oil from a depth of 25,000 feet? The density of ‘light’ crude oil is 0.828 kg/liter. What fraction of the energy content of the oil is this? This is a very local contribution to ‘emergy’.