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Workshop Wrap-up

Workshop Wrap-up. Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs, Progress and Gaps. Snapshot analysis of all agency research efforts mapped against research needs and operational priorities

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Workshop Wrap-up

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  1. Workshop Wrap-up Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs, Progress and Gaps

  2. Snapshot analysis of all agency research efforts mapped against research needs and operational priorities Fairly even distribution of TC research investment among agencies cover most operational priorities Intensity/structure change #1, but very difficult Captures >90% research in 75 IHC abstracts Work in progress Summary

  3. Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study Total $ With Facilities: $50.2M Without Facilities: 37.7M Total Man-Years: 228

  4. Areas of Concern / Gaps Little emphasis on forecaster aids (guidance on guidance) Not just an applied research problem Needs greater emphasis in basic as well as applied Include math / probability community Little emphasis on resolution vs. ensemble model output* Summary * First HFIP issue

  5. Intensity Change Genesis Stat Aids QPF Track Fcst Storm Surge Observations Size/Structure SST Gradients Model Res vs Ensembles Fcst Efficiency Wind Analysis Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs Combined Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities Intensity & Structure: ~ 35%

  6. Areas of Concern / Gaps (continued) Continue global model improvement (NUOPC) Major Concern / Gap Lack of inclusion of social science and associated decision-making issues related to TC research Summary

  7. Next steps of WG/TCR Develop set of interagency strategic objectives driven by requirements (intensity/structure, track, RI, genesis) Relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives Document continued work of WG/TCR Formalize executive oversight Address major concern to address social science and decision-making issues Summary

  8. Recommended action to address major concern Form a new OFCM-sponsored Joint Action Group under the WG/TCR Focus and build upon key areas in Section 5.3, Appendix P, and recommendation 2.a.2 of 2007 TC R&D Plan, “Social Science Research” Decision-making Warning process Behavioral response Societal impacts Activity should address the societal / public safety aspects and build upon major concerns / needs such as: Risk mitigation Decision support Summary

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