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The state of THE State Constitution

The state of THE State Constitution. Political Science 103A, Lecture #2. California’s Year of Reform? . How Well (or Poorly) Does California Government Perform Today? Conventional Commentary and Academic Research How Should it be Fixed? What’s the Right Process? Proposed Solutions

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The state of THE State Constitution

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  1. The state of THE State Constitution Political Science 103A, Lecture #2

  2. California’s Year of Reform? • How Well (or Poorly) Does California Government Perform Today? • Conventional Commentary and Academic Research • How Should it be Fixed? • What’s the Right Process? • Proposed Solutions • UC San Diego’s Role in Reform

  3. Our Twin Challenges Partisan Polarization in Legislature Per Capita State Spending (LAO)

  4. Judging California Today • California’s Two Governments • Legislation: A majoritarian system • Budget and Taxes: A consensus (2/3) system shifting half way to a majoritarian system • Two Ways to Evaluate Government • Efficiency: How quickly are issues resolved? • Responsiveness: Does the final decision reflect what voters want?

  5. Legislative Efficiency:Does Polarization Predict Gridlock?

  6. Legislative Representation(Best in the Nation) From analysis of 39 policy areas by Justin Phillips and Jeff Lax (Columbia University)

  7. Budget Efficiency:Delays No Matter Who is in Charge Dept. of Finance data courtesy of Eric McGhee

  8. Budget Representation • Recipe for Solving Deficits: Leans right lately • Long tradition of mixing cuts with tax increases • 2009, 2011 red budgets in a blue state

  9. Are We in a Constitutional Crisis? • Partisan Polarization is Here to Stay • Sacramento’s divide reflects demographic trends across the state, voters matching ideology to party (not just gerrymander) • Our Two Governments Perform Differently • Our majoritarian legislative process works better than the budget, but is far from perfect • Popular Consensus on Problems, Less Consensus on Solutions

  10. Three Routes to Reform

  11. Constitutional Convention

  12. Constitutional Conventions:A Risky Route

  13. Legislative Revision

  14. Piecemeal Reform: Constitutional Amendments from Citizens or Legislators

  15. An Appetite for Constitutional Reform • October, 2009 Field Poll on Reform • 51-38% favor “fundamental changes” to constitution • 51-39% prefer convention to legislative commission • 32% would be “very likely” to serve as delegates • 48-42% think illegal immigration should be part of constitutional debate • But few specific reforms have majority support, and “Repair California” convention call fizzled

  16. So, What Reforms do Voters Want? • Traditional Polls Ask Voters for Quick Judgments About Complex Issues (October 2009 Field Poll): • 23% support for flattening California’s income tax • 23% support for creating a new type of sales tax • 27% support for allowing legislature to raise taxes with a majority rather than 2/3 vote • 37% support for limiting Prop. 13 protections to houses

  17. Alternative Approach:Get California Together in a Room • June 2011 “deliberative poll” on constitutional reform in California • 400 randomly sampled voters spent a weekend together in Torrance after doing “homework” • Polled on Friday and Sunday

  18. Deliberation Led to Consensus

  19. Piecemeal Reform Round 1 (2010) June 2010 Primary November 2010 General • Vote for Budget Changes from 2/3 to 50%+1 (P) • Vote For Fees Changes from 50%+1 to 2/3 (P) • Protect City Finances (P) • Expand Citizens Redistricting Commission to Congress (P) • Eliminate Citizens Redistricting Commission (F) • Prop. 14 -- PASSED • Creates a “top-two” primary designed to open the door to legislative moderation • Prop. 15 -- FAILED • Allows a pilot program of public financing in Secretary of State elections, funded by tax on lobbyists

  20. Piecemeal Reform, Round Two (2012) June 2012 Primary November 2012 General Election • Series of budget reforms from deliberative poll, backed by California Forward and Think Long (Prop. 31) FAILED • Competing tax increases from Governor PASSED and Molly MungerFAILED (30 and 38) • Redistricting referendum (40) FAILED • Limits on corporate giving, union fundraising and giving (32) FAILED • Prop. 28 -- • Amends term limits by allowing legislators to spend up to 12 years in one house of state legislature • Does not apply to today’s legislators • Passed 61-39%

  21. CaliforniaChoices.org website viewed by 100,000 Californians for an average of 5 minutes in the weeks leading up to the November, 2012 election

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