National Urban Transformation Training Urban Trends

1. National Urban Transformation TrainingUrban Trends Rev. Dr. J.N. Manokaran, Managing Director TOPIC-India J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

2. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Global crisis • Market melt down • New American president • Terrorism • WORLD IS HOT, FLAT AND CROWDED • Energy crisis and Environment J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

3. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends • World Densest cities: The list is: 1 Mumbai (29650 per sq. km); 2 Kolkata (29650); 3 Karachi (18900); 4 Lagos (18150); 5. Shenzhen (17150); 6. Seoul (16700); 7. Taipei (15200); 8. Chennai (14350); 9. Bagata (13500); 10. Shangai (13400); 11. Lima (11750)’ 12. Beijing (11500); 13 Delhi (11050); 14. Kinsaha (10650); 15. Manila (10550) 16. Tehran (10550) 17. Jakarta (10500) 18. Tianjin (10500); 19. Bangalore (10100) 20. Ho Chi Minh (9450). J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

4. Indian cities J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

5. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 1: Humanity moving to cities, towns: • Half of world’s people will live in urban areas • 70 per cent will be city dwellers by 2050 there will be 27 ‘megacities’ with at least 10 million population by mid century compared to 19 today • Half the urban growth will be in the many smaller cities with less than 500000 people. • The population is also projected to increase from 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion by 2050. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

6. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends • There were 50.3 million urban households in the country in 2000; this rose to 61.5 million in 2005. • Six metros: Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore and Hyderabad • Eight mini-metros, Ludhiana, Bhubaneswar, Pune, Kochi, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Patna and Lucknow. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

7. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends • Tamil Nadu the most urbanised State: • 44 per cent of people of Tamil Nadu were living in urban areas. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

8. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends • Bangalored or Gangtoked? • Leaders: Bangalore - Bangalore, National Capital Region of Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai and Kolkata. • The Challengers: Ahmedabad, Bhuvaneswar, Chandigarh, Chombatore, Indore, Jaipur, Kochi, Lucknow, Madurai, Mangalore, Nagpur, Thiruvananthapuram, Tiruchirapalli, Vadodara, and Vishakapatnam. • The followers: Aurangabad, Bhopal, Goa, Gwalior, Hubli-Dharwad, Kanpur, Mysore, Nashik, Pondicherry, Salem, Surat, Vijayawada, and Varanasi. • The Aspirants: Allahabad, Dehradun, Durgapur, Gangtok, Guwahati, Ludhiana, Patna, Raipur, Ranchi, Shimla, Siliguri, and Srinagar. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

9. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends • India’s Top 25 emerging markets: Kannur, kerala; Kolhapur, Maharashtra; Thirissur, Kerala; Erode, Tamil Nadu; Puducherry; Alappuzha, Kerala; Patiala, Punjab; Ahmednagar, Maharashtra; Sangli, Maharashtra; Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu; Kollam, Kerala; Gurudaspur; Punjab; Sangrur, Punjab; Panipat, Haryana; Yamunanagar, Haryana; Ambala, Haryana; Shimoga, Karnataka; Rohtak, Haryana; Palakkad, Kerala; Kottayam, Kerala; Karnal, Haryana; Shimla, Himachal Pradesh; Rupnagar, Punjab; Theni, Tamil Nadu; and Namakkal, Tamil Nadu. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

10. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends • Best Cities for Business: The top cities are: 1. Mumbai, 2. Bangalore, 3. Delhi, 4. Chennai, 5. Hyderabad, 6. Kolkata, 7. Ahmedabad, 8. Pune, (called Mega cities) 9. Surat and 10. Kanpur, 11. Jaipur, 12. Lucknow, 13. Nagpur, 14. Bhopal, 15. Coimbatore, (Called Boom towns) 16. Faridabad, 17. Amritsar, 18. Ludhiana, 19. Chandigarh, and 20. Jalandhar. (Called Niche cities) (Business Today, 7 September 2008, p. 70-120) J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

11. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends • 50 cities seen as hub of retail space boom: The top 15 cities in the list will contribute more than 80 per cent of the total national retail business by 2008. Delhi-NCR and Mumbai belong to the “maturing” category. • “Transitional cities” include Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai and Ahmedabad. • Chandigarh, Jaipur, Ludhiana, Lucknow, Kochi, Surat and Vadodara belong to the third category of “high-growth cities”. • “Emerging cities” — Ludiana, Coching, Nagpur, Indore, Nasik, Bhubaneshwar, Vizag, Coimbatore, Mangalore, Mysore and Thiruvananthapuram —The category also includes tourist destinations like Amritsar, Agra and Goa. • Cities where both income levels and corporate activities are limited — Patna, Bhopal, Meerut, Asansol, Varanasi, Kolhapur and Sonepat — are termed as “nascent”. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

12. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Cities are New Mission Frontiers • Pastors, missionaries, church planters moving into cities • New biblical understanding about cities J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

13. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 2: Disparity in the cities increasing • Hex and the city: According to the UN report on State of the World’s Cities, 2008-2009 Indian cities will witness rising levels of inequality • Rich earn four times more than the poorest. • One of every three people in cities live in slums. • Poor - 200000 ragpickers clean up 20 per cent of the 10000 tonnes of garbage in Delhi – • 1 lakh pavement dwellers in Mumbai – • Two third of the population lives in slums. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

14. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Slums increasing • Unemployed poor increasing • White Tiger? How many read this book? • Holistic Missions: Self Help Groups, Community Colleges, Micro-finances J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

15. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 3: Migration an important aspect Human Highways: The 2001 Census • 9 million migrated from Uttar Pradesh, 5.5 million migrated from Bihar. • In the State of Maharastra, UP and Bihar migrants are 5 million of the total population of 96.9 million. • In Mumbai (14 million), 4 million are migrants from UP and Bihar • Child labour migrants: Of all migrants in Mumbai city, 22 per cent are child labourers. (The Week 14 January 2007, p.6) • Delhi (13 million), where UP-Bihar migrants are 3.8 million. • Punjab (24 million) -4 million UP-Bihar migrants there. • Assam- (26 million) - 300000 from UP-Bihar have migrated there. • 100000 UP-Bihar migrants in Karnataka (52 million) • In Bangalore only 34%of the city’s 6 million is Kannadigas. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

16. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Reaching Migrants – families • Reaching students in the hostels • Reaching other language groups in the city • Models – Nepalis, Sindhis etc. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

17. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 4: Direction of migration keeps changing • Migration to city from south falling: • The declining number of south Indian migrants into Mumbai city is visible in all places like: Antop Hill, Matunga, Chembur, Mulund and Dombivli . • Southern migrants have been replaced by migrants from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar who are making their way to Mumbai in ever-increasing numbers, propelled by the support system provided by friends and relatives already in the city. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

18. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Understand the winds of change in migration pattern • Move where people move • Example: Orissa persecution – 5000 people moved into Ernakulam. Plant Oriya church in Ernakulam J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

19. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 5: Children are vulnerable in cities • Street kids -25000 child bonded labour in Mumbai • Elite kids - 10-18 years is vulnerable to mental health disorder AIIMS study • Urban children not getting enough sleep • Training emotional gun on parents – suicide for not purchasing new dress, etc J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

20. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • New Strategies for reaching children • Camps, Games • Internet based outreach material • Magazines, books, cartoons J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

21. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 6: Teenagers and Young are rudderless • Young - 340 million (13-35 age) • 17 per cent of the 1.4 million teenage abortions that take place every year in the developing countries happen in India. More specifically, of the approximately 2.45 lakh teenage abortions reported in India every year, 36700 happen in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bangalore. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

22. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • New youth strategies. How do you understand modern and post modern youth? • Chetan Bhagat books????? • Reaching Post modern youth • Reaching Unemployed youth J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

23. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 7: Women are oppressed in the city • Women – crime against women • 540 rapes in 2004, 640 in 2005 in Delhi • Dowry deaths – urban phenomenon -50 % • University students in Delhi favour dowry • - Domestic violence J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

24. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Women ministries? • New Initiatives? • New tools? • Marrying Anita – Anita Jain???????? J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

25. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 8: Family in crisis in the city • Divorces – 2 divorces for every 5 marriages in Chennai • Live-in-relationships • Extra Marital affairs - 12% of married couples below 30 years indulge in extramarital affair • a high 35 per cent being open to an office romance • A third surveyed saw no harm in romancing a married colleague, while 44% - an affair as strategic move to climb the corporate ladder. • Gays/Lesbianism/AIDS/HIV - 5.1 million people affected • Working parents have just 30 minutes for kids in India J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

26. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends • In India, men unable to keep pace with women’s changing role: Four out of five Indian men said they have been part of a group that has made lewd comments to women. That’s according to a recent Hindustan Times survey of 500 men in the age of 20 to 45 from six India’s largest cities. Nearly half the men surveyed felt women at a pub are ‘asking for trouble’. Around 60% of them preferred stay-at-home wives. • For every five men, there is one woman who works in an income-generating activity. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

27. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Family counselling • Premarital counselling • Chennai Transformation Network – Family Track Model J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

28. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 9: Economic growth and more jobs • Unemployment in major cities declines: survey: Here are some highlights of the 61st National Sample Survey. The unemployment rate has declined from 4.4% to 3.4% in Class I cities of India. Class I cities have population over one million, Class II – population between 50000 and 1 million, Class III with less than 50000. The unemployment rate in rural India stands at 2.1 for males and 3.1 for females. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

29. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Market economy and money economy has two different paradigms • Inflation • Global Boom and Global Gloom J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

30. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 10: Ideology politics to Identity politics • Closure of industries – no trade unions • Slum lords • Sons of soil • Right wing J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

31. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Mumbai • Assam • Bangalore • Unrest, violence J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

32. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 11: New Urban Spirituality • New kind of spirituality • Increase in spiritual quest • 95% believe in God. 89% believe in the power of prayer • Top five spiritual idols are: Vinayaka, Shiva, Krishna, Sai Baba and Jesus. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

33. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Youngsters are more open to spiritual things – but how do they define spirituality • New strategies, tools needed J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

34. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 12: Postmodernism gaining ground • Post modernism – compatible with Hindutva • Modernism is being replaced by Postmodernism J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

35. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Using Modernism tools to Postmodernism society will be a failure • What are Postmodern tools for evangelism? J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

36. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 13: Crisis of urban identity • Identity self – preservation – caste, culture and language • Identity in free market economy- consumerism – capacity to consume Not the capacity to contribute but the capacity to consume J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

37. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Should capacity to consume determine a person’s worth and identity? • What are the alternatives? • How should that be communicated? J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

38. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 14: Lifestyle diseases • 'Indian workforce unhealthy': • 47% of the workforce overweight • 27% were suffering from hypertension • 10% were also found to be diabetic. (35 million diabetic in India) • 50 per cent of Delhi adults are obese • Stress and Suicides: Bangalore is suicide capital: • Suicides kill more people than war every year J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

39. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Eye camps…etc. Good to reach urban poor • “Fitness Camps”, “Diet Camps”, “Heart diseases check up camps”… • Free Gyms in churches for low middle class young people? J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

40. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 15: Health hazard • Cities are vulnerable – Dengue, Chikangunya • Pollution -12% Hyderabad city drinks water -excess uranium • Air pollution, Noise pollution and water pollution J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

41. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Can church be a model? • Environment friendly strategies? • Water Harvesting in Chennai? J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

42. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 16: Technology invades the city • Media – FM radio, Internet….. • 38 million Internet users & 3.1 million Broad band (Internet is information tool for old, relationship tool for youngsters) • Mobile phones – 250 plus million phones • Cyber cafes: India is 250000. • Indians world's third biggest online shoppers: next only to the Turkish and Irish e-shoppers. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

43. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Harness technology for missions • Blogs, scraps, walls….what not? J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

44. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 17: Violence in the city • School children using guns to settle disputes • Kidnap and killing of teenagers by friends • Road rage • “Sudden Provocation” J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

45. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • How can the church respond? J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

46. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 18: Victim of terrorism • Cities are targets for terrorist attacks • Special insurance against terrorist attack has gained market • Islam and Hinduism – religions used for terrorism – Malegaon blasts • Naxalites - terror J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

47. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Voice for peace and reconciliation J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

48. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 19: Right wing ideology inroads in city Saffron Techies: In Bengalure alone, there are 46 IT milans located in different residential areas. A special door-to-door fundraising drive held in Bengaluru over a month in 2007 reportedly raised Rs. 20 lakh for the Vanavasi Kalyan Kendra, a Sangh organization that deal with tribal welfare activities. IT milans in Bengalure are working towards a Sanskrit camp that will be held in the month of November 2008 where 2000 are expected. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

49. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Response • Encourage Christian professionals to be engaged in their own contexts • Educate, train and provide tools for them to work in their work places J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>

50. National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends Trend 20: Entertainment, leisure, eating out • Malls, theme parks, restaurants, increased • 4 theme parks, 50 lakh visitors: Four theme parks in Chennai are dishing out thrills and spills for action hungry citizens of Chennai who seem to want only more. J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <jnmanokaran@yahoo.com>