Understanding & Meeting Needs of the Renewable Energy Industry

1. Understanding & Meeting Needsof the Renewable Energy Industry Priorities, Expectations and Roles 2009 AMS Summer Community Meeting August 12, 2009Norman, Oklahoma Mark Ahlstrom, CEOmark@windlogics.com

2. WindLogics Background • Founded in 1989 by supercomputer architects • Applied meteorology focus • Assessment, forecasting, operations and integration of renewable energy • Intelligent solutions for the world’s energy industry

3. NextEra Energy Resources (formerly FPL Energy) • WindLogics became a subsidiary of FPL Energyin September 2006 • NextEra is the largest renewable energy providerin North American • Wind - 65 wind plants (over 6,400 MW) • Solar - seven solar facilities (310 MW) • Nuclear, hydro and gas plants • More than 17,000 MW of generation • Subsidiary of FPL Group (NYSE: FPL) • 2008 revenues more than $16 billion

4. Electric Utility Perceptions of Wind & Solar Energy • Reliability is job #1 • Wind and solar may be sources of free fuel, but how useful is an intermittent source of power? • In the context of traditional operating practices, both the variability of the power delivery and the uncertainty of the schedule are perceived to add risk and costs to the system • If we must live with variability, can’t you at least provide an accurate schedule (forecast) of the power delivery?

5. Complexity of Wind Power Output Power proportional to cube of wind speed Complex interactions with localized flows and between wind turbines themselves Wind variability in all time scales Shear Diurnals Long-term inter-annual variability Even with a perfect weather/wind forecast, the power forecast will have errors that are perceived to be higher than what the power industry is used to seeing

6. The Unfortunate Reality For a large portion of the U.S. power grid, the system operator is getting their wind forecast from a German company

7. The Unfortunate Reality For a large portion of the U.S. power grid, the system operator is getting their wind forecast from a German companyusing ECMWF

8. Needs from Government & Academia • Enhanced weather data networks • Improved boundary layer understanding • Complex flow regimes (low-level jets, stable layer flows, etc.) • Models tuned to lowest 200 meters - with complex terrain & forest • Highly instrumented test & validation sites • Improvements to NWP models • Collaborative research plans and roadmaps that optimize assets between and among the public and private sector

9. Roles of Public and Private Sector The general policies from other market sectors seem quite appropriate (for example, the NWS support to DOTs): • NWS has a commitment to public safety • Protecting life and property • Understanding evolution and timing of hazardous weather events • Commitment to work with the private sector • Beyond the scope • Site-specific forecasts not related to public safety, life or property • Specialized weather support or customized consulting services • Customized products which are not directly weather related

10. Research Projects • Research benefits from real-world input and real scenarios, so joint projects between government and academic research centers, the private sector and private companies are good • Research projects affiliated with government labs… • Open for public review - regular “technical review committee” meetings • Designed to advance research topics • Avoid any perception of delivering a customized, commercial solution to a private company • Be very mindful of overpromising results • An example with negative perceptions • NCAR RAL / Xcel Energy project

11. The Risk and Danger • Unrealistic expectations, while well meaning and sincere, can harm the industry • By emphasizing weather forecasting and failing have deep understanding of the business realities, disappointing business results could strengthen the perception that renewables are “intermittent” and unreliable • An extremely high level of involvement, integration and support will be needed to solve this problem in the utility control room

12. Role of Private Sector We strongly believe in the role of the private sector in adding domain-specific value. • Perception of results • Technology transfer • Commercialization • Support

13. Perception is Reality • A fragile time in the renewables space • Perceptions are critical – in both utility industry and public • For the electric utility industry, this business transition is extremely complex • Perceived “failures” to achieve expectations may be better handled in the private sector • Don’t become the excuse… We need renewables!

14. Questions & Discussion Mark Ahlstrom, CEO 651.556.4262 mark@windlogics.com