Analysis Concerning the Disaster of the Forest: A Theoretical and Practical Approach

1. Analysis Concerning the Disaster of the Forest: A Theoretical and Practical Approach Debra Larson JJ Smith Dean Howard Smith Northern Arizona University Karen Wattenmaker

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3. RODEO/CHEDISKI COMPLEX • 468,638 acres, or 732 square miles • 426 structures • 30,000 evacuees from 9 communities • Displaced families for 2 weeks • 4,400 fire fighters JD White

4. Rodeo/Chediski Costs • Navajo County $20 million lost property value • Property taxes for schools, fire, etc. • Cost of fighting it at $43 million • Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of timber • Flashflood potential increased • Business shutdowns

5. 2001 Fire Season • Statistical Highlights 2001 • Number of Fires 84,079 • 10 year Average (1991-2000) 106,400 • Acres Burned 3,570,911 • 10-year Average (1991-2000) 4,083,347 • Structures Burned 731

6. 2000 Fire Season • Number of fires 122,827 • 10-year Average (1990-1999) 106,393 • Acres Burned 8,422,237      • 10-year Average (1990-1999) 3,786,411 • Structures Burned 861 • Estimated Cost of Fire Suppression $1.3 billion • Most large fires active in one day 86 • Number of people involved including firefighters and support personnel 30,000+

7. Rocky Mountain West • 120 million acres of national forest • 39 million acres need restoration • Restoration costs $150-$500+/acre • $51 billion total costs • 2001 budget was $400 million • 125+ years of expenditures! • Will likely never reach a reasonable level of success.

8. Stand Replacing Fires • Crown fires or Catastrophic Fires • 100 years of fire suppression • Not just the under story • Yellowstone in 1988 • Yosemite • Glenwood Springs • Rodeo/Chediski 732 square miles

9. Flagstaff Forests • Pre settlement 20-30 trees/acre “Yellowbelly” old growth stands • Pre settlement 60-70 trees/acre typical • Today 200-300 trees/acre • Blackjack stands: 3000 trees/acre

10. Flagstaff Area • 180,000 acres of wildland-urban interface at risk • $150-$1,200/acre for thinning • $90 Million for restoration of the Flagstaff region alone. Karen Wattenmaker

11. Make A Choice Kari Brown

12. Norgaard’s Coevolution Theory • (I)n the coevolutionary paradigm, the environment determines the fitness of how people behave as guided by alternative ways of knowing, forms of social organization, and types of technologies. Yet at the same time, how people know, organize and use tools determine the fitness characteristics of an evolving environment. At any point in time, each determines the other.

13. What is needed? • New ways of Knowing: ERI, SES • New ways of Organizing: policy and legal system • New ways of doing: extracting wood fiber

14. Current Forest Restoration • Thinning • Slash pile burning • Prescribed burning

15. Costs vary according to : • Concentration of stand • Pre-treatment condition • Access to roads • Commercial value of material • Type of disposal • Market conditions

16. Small Diameter Roundwood • Little engineering experience • Wood characteristics • Wood fiber characteristics • What can be produced?

17. Evaluation Criteria • Initial capital cost and flexibility of varying plant size • Waste discharges • Water usage • Wood material properties • Size and suitability • Revenue potential • Jobs • Market outlook

19. Product possibilities Mechanical pulp and related paper and board products Oriented Strand Board Nonstructural particle board Medium density fiberboard

20. Jane Jacobs • “differentiation emerging from generality” • “differentiations become generalities from which further differentiations emerge.” • “development depends on co-developments.” • not the “Thing Theory”

21. Small Roundwood Uses • Firewood • Hogan project • Post and pole • Vigas • Specialty items/furniture etc • Limited possibilities

22. Codevelopments • Entrepreneurial spirit (of the West) • New products and codevelopments • New uses and experiments • New jobs and opportunities • Increased tourism and activities due to fewer forest closures • Improved health

23. Lawsuits: 1 example • "This lawsuit can only harm our local forests and communities . . . These trees must be removed because we face a continual fire hazard. Dense vegetation still exists throughout the forest, and the potential this year for another Rodeo-Chediski-type fire in our area is very real…"

24. Lawsuits: a later example of the same salvage project • Although the plaintiffs did not get what they wanted from the District Court, they are winning the battle of time. If the legal process is spread out over a long enough time period, the dead timber will be unsalvageable. (Baeza, 2003b)

25. Necessary Co-Developments • Transportation • Processing • Developing Markets • Reinvesting in wood utilization industry

26. Governor’s Forest Health Oversight Council • all new or renovated state facilities to consider using commercially based wood pellets or wood chips for heating purposes (schools, universities, etc.). • The legislature should provide a tax credit for homeowners that install and use wood pellet heat. • develop recommendations for achieving greater contribution to energy generation in focusing on utilization of biomass materials

27. Permitting/Contracting Process • founded on the concepts of science-based forest management and ecological sustainability • Market prices between current cost of restoration (negative price) and current harvesting contracts (positive price.)

28. Interesting Market Question • Current restoration costs: $150-$1200/acre (negative price) • Current contracts on Centennial Forest $750/acre – an no market for the wood (Butler) (negative price) • Historical Sales $15/1000 board feet and $7.50/1000 cubic feet (positive prices) (8-10 years ago)

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30. Debra Larson is Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dean Howard Smith is Professor of Economics and Applied Indigenous Studies, and JJ Smith is Senior Research Associate, School of Forestry and the NAU Centennial Forest