Lessons from Coping with Current Climate for Future Adaptation

1. SESSION C:Lessons from coping with current climate for future adaptation:How useful is it to rely on adaptation to current climate as a means for assessing capacity to adapt to future climate change?

2. Conceptualizing the Problem 30 climate change 25 Capacity 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2014 2024 2034 2044 2054 2064 Time, years

3. ‘The Devil’s Advocate’ (Bill) • Why should we consider that the lessons learned from historical/current adaptation measures is a good indicator for adaptation to future changes? • Why should we believe that incremental changes in capacity (I.e. human, physical) will help us to prepare for long term climate change?

4. Initial Issues • Where we currently are in terms of being adapted is important! • We can’t incrementally adapt if we are not already adapted • Climate change is not going to be a static, linear future process • Incremental changes may not work • Depends from sector to sector: incremental change may not be as valid for sea level rise concerns as agricultural sector concerns (precautionary principal may apply) • Temporal dynamic: incremental change— • Band-Aids no longer work on a wounded elbow if the arm suddenly falls off

5. That said… • Historical adaptation has not always been incremental • I.e. migration from drought • Policy change in California agriculture • In some cases incremental adaptation has successfully occurred • Egyptian agricultural practices (change in crops, technologies, etc)

6. Fundamental Issue: Sustainability • Sustainability of past adaptation measures– how robust are they to current climate? • Can they withstand future climate change? • (In many cases a policy change can occur if current practice is not adequate/sustainable) • Adaptation means policy, too • Perverse incentives can effect adaptation

7. So what can we learn? • Key: Looking at past adaptation measures forces you to consider human, social, and cultural aspects of adaptation • What are your REAL obstacles??? • A possible shortcoming of much of the current adaptation work is it is often approached from purely technical point of view • Brings to mind development paradigms of the ’50s • Lessons can be learned from both failures and successes

8. How do we know if adaptation measures are successful? • How to define the adaptation baseline? • The case of climate variability/extreme events, consider ‘damages’ • Health, mortality • Economic • Reduction in mortality • Increases in economic losses

9. That’s It