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The Evolution of SIP Modeling from 1970 to Present

The Evolution of SIP Modeling from 1970 to Present. 2012 Region 4 Modelers Workshop Atlanta GA John Calcagni. 1970-1977 SIP Efforts. Initial SIPs due in 1971 SO 2 and TSP were primary pollutants addressed Focus on Big Dirties

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The Evolution of SIP Modeling from 1970 to Present

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  1. The Evolution of SIP Modeling from 1970 to Present 2012 Region 4 Modelers Workshop Atlanta GA John Calcagni

  2. 1970-1977 SIP Efforts • Initial SIPs due in 1971 • SO2 and TSP were primary pollutants addressed • Focus on Big Dirties • Basically used computerized version of Turner workbook (Gifford-Hanna equations). • Ozone and CO SIPs deferred until 1973 • Rollback for Ozone • APRAC 1A for CO • Turner Workbook with Line Source equation for roads

  3. 1970-1977 Big Issues • Region V SO2 FIPs • Sulfur Variability • Ex-Ex Model • Tall Stacks and Supplemental Control Systems • Power Plants • Smelters • Section 123 Stack Heights 1977 CAA

  4. 1970-1977 Big Issues (Cont.) • Ozone • Size of Domain • “Inter-Urban Transport Implausible” • No VOC Inventories • ORD First Efforts • St Louis RAPS Study • Massive Field Effort but no Emission Inventory

  5. 1978 PSD Modeling Begins • EPA models not designed for increments • SIP modeling was case by case • Every vendor developed a proprietary model that met client needs • Consistent tracking of increments not possible • EPA standardized the models in early 1980’s • SCRAM Bulletin Board

  6. 1978-1982 Ozone Modeling • SIP Guidance – Appendix J • Hockey stick graph • Based on Smog Chamber Studies from LA • EKMA • Combined smog chamber data and rollback • Still based on Urban Area • ORD Commits to Develop Ozone Model • SAI Urban Air Shed Model debuts (UAM)

  7. 1983-1990 Ozone Modeling • UAM only Regional Model • Proprietary and Expensive • Used by California and Texas Industries • EKMA remained approved model • 1985-ORD almost cancels model development • States would attain by 1987 and model not needed • 1988 SAI almost shelves UAM • 1988 Five Cities Study • Atlanta, Dallas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, New York • Develop lower cost application • Develop State Capacity

  8. Ozone Modeling in 1990’s • 1991 EPA ORD acknowledges role of NOx • 1993 OAQPS develops Relative Response methodology for models • 1995 Ozone Transport Assessment Group • Used UAM under license • CMAQ still not available • First Credible Regional Ozone Model Application • 1998 ORD release Models 3 and CMAQ

  9. Any Questions?

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