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ENERGY SECURITY , GLOBAL GROWTH AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Dr. Andrey P. Vavilov Member of the Council of Federation of the Russian Federation IFS Academic Director CRIFES Scientific Advisor. ENERGY SECURITY , GLOBAL GROWTH AND RISK MANAGEMENT. March 2009. UNCERTAINTY risks. Reserve evaluation. Oil price volatility. Investment risks.

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ENERGY SECURITY , GLOBAL GROWTH AND RISK MANAGEMENT

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  1. Dr. Andrey P. Vavilov Member of the Council of Federation of the Russian Federation IFS Academic Director CRIFES Scientific Advisor ENERGY SECURITY, GLOBAL GROWTH ANDRISK MANAGEMENT March 2009

  2. UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth Global energy security risks

  3. UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth Global energy security risks

  4. Global peak oil estimates

  5. Shut down oil and gas projects in the Caspian Sea region

  6. Oil reserves in unstable economies

  7. UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth Global energy security risks

  8. Rebased price fluctuations (2008 data)

  9. Nominal oil price fluctuations 1990, The first Iraq campaign, 41$/bbl 2008, Record high, 147,5$/bbl 1981, Iran-Iraq conflict, 31,7$/bbl

  10. UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth Global energy security risks

  11. UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth Global energy security risks

  12. Energy consumption vs. GDP in developed countries and China

  13. Savings and debt fluctuations in the US

  14. Mechanism of oil dependency in the global growth model Oil dependency Decline in oil supply Lower rate of return on capital Growthof consumption Low mobility of capital Saving rates in Asia-Pacific countries

  15. Sales channels diversification PRODUCER Resource nationalism Control over reserves COOPERATION Is this a cooperative behavior?

  16. Sales channels diversification PRODUCER Resource nationalism Control over reserves COOPERATION Diversification of imports Financial protectionism CONSUMER Decline in imports Is this a cooperative behavior?

  17. Conditions for global growth Producer GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH COOPERATION Consumer

  18. RUSSIA Resource potential management Foreign non-energy assets management Access to technology 1. Participation in the global development 2. Risk diversification 3. Preconditions for technological advance 4. Lower volatility of stock exchange indexes Advantages of risk exchange

  19. Stock exchange index volatility

  20. Center for Research on International Financial and Energy Security

  21. Dr. Andrey P. Vavilov • Member of the Council of Federationof the Russian Federation • IFS Academic Director • CRIFES Scientific Advisor CRIFES www.econ.psu.edu/CRIFES/ IFS www.ifs.ru/en/

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