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Nowcasting of neutral and ion composition of the mesosphere: Ionosphere chemistry module.

Nowcasting of neutral and ion composition of the mesosphere: Ionosphere chemistry module. Egorova, T., E. Rozanov, J.-F. Hochedez, and W. Schmutz PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ROB, Brussels, Belgium SCSL meeting, 29 Nov.-1 Dec., 2006. The project idea:

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Nowcasting of neutral and ion composition of the mesosphere: Ionosphere chemistry module.

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  1. Nowcasting of neutral and ion composition of the mesosphere: Ionosphere chemistry module. Egorova, T., E. Rozanov, J.-F. Hochedez, and W. Schmutz PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ROB, Brussels, Belgium SCSL meeting, 29 Nov.-1 Dec., 2006

  2. The project idea: To evaluate the response of the middle atmosphere to the solar UV irradiancevariability LYRA Instrument on PROBA2 tools for nowcast and short-term forecast of the solar irradiance (solar spectral restoration) On-line LYRA data and nowcast/forecast results for space-weather community Other observations of solar irradiance Chemistry ionosphere climate model (CICM) extension of SOCOL (Egorova et al.,2005) Nowcast and short-term forecast of the neutral and ionic composition of the middle atmosphere

  3. Modeling tool description SOCOL: modeling tool to studySOlar-Climate-Ozone Links General Circulation component (GCM):MA-ECHAM4(Manzini & McFarlane,1998) Chemistry/transport component (CTM): MEZON(Egorova et al., 2003) Main features: ~4ºx4º (T30); L39; ~80km • Winds and temperature • H2O (troposphere) Ported on PC (3.8 GHz): 3 hours => ~ 18 s CPU Documentation: Egorova et al., 2005, ACP GCM CTM • Ozone • H2O(stratosphere)

  4. Solar irradiance at 205 nm

  5. Maximum correlation with I205nm from CCM Hydroxyl Temperature Ozone

  6. Ozone at 40 km from CCM

  7. Comparison 3D simulation and observations: signal of 27-day solar cycle in ozone Red: Ly-alpha Blue: Herzberg (scaled) SUSIM Microwave radiometer: Data provided by Bern University (N.Kämpfer group) SOMORA SOCOL calculations: without ionosphere SOCOL

  8. Maximum correlation with I205nm from CCM Hydroxyl Temperature Ozone

  9. Hydroxyl at 50 km from CCM

  10. Ion chemistry in the D-region: 1-D model Space: 0-90 km, Z = ~ 2 km Time : t = 2 hours Chemistry: Electron density: e 30 positive ions: O+, O2+, O4+, N+, NO+, N2+, H2O2+, H3O+,O2+∙N2, O2+∙H2O, H3O+∙OH, NO+∙H2O, NO+∙(H2O)2, NO+∙(H2O)3, NO+∙CO2, NO+∙N2, NO+∙H2O∙CO2, NO+∙H2O∙N2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2, H+∙(H2O)3, H+∙(H2O)4, H+∙(H2O)5, H+∙(H2O)6, H+∙(H2O)7, H3O+∙CO2, H3O+∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, H+∙(H2O)2∙N2 17 negative ions: O¯, O2¯, O3¯, O4¯, OH¯, CO3¯, CO4¯, NO2¯, NO3¯, HCO3¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH3¯,O2¯∙H2O, NO3¯∙H2O, CO3¯∙H2O 43 neutral species: O3 , O* , O , O2*, NO, HO2, ClO, NO2 , OH, NO3, N2O5, HNO3,HONO3, ClONO2, Cl, N, N*, H2O2, H, HOCl, Cl2, Cl2O2, HCl ,Br, CH2O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO3, BrCl, CH3, CH3O2, CH3O, HCO, CH3O2H, H2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N2O, CH4, CO, H2, CBrF3 ~ 200 reactions for ions and ~ 200 neutral gaseous reactions

  11. Ion chemistry in the D-region: 1-D model • Ionization: - Ly-alpha above 65 km: NO • - Galactic Cosmic Rays below 65 km (Heaps, 1978): N2 and O2 • - Energetic Particles Precipitation (EPP) • - Solar Proton Events (SPE) • Radiation: • - spectral region 120-780 nm with 73 spectral intervals (Rozanov et al., 2002) • - radiation data source: daily SUSIM UARS observations • Simulations performed for 500N, for max and min solar activity

  12. Vertical distribution of electron and total negative ( N- ) and positive (N+) ions density

  13. Daily cycle

  14. Sensitivity study: Solar max- solar min Positive ions Negative ions and electrons • Experiments: 1) – 2) • Solar maximum with GCR at min + NO ionization • Solar minimum control with GCR at max + NO ionization Neutrals

  15. Nowcasting in the D-region: request for hourly data Data in use: LYRA measurements of Ly-alpha and Herzberg fluxes INPUT:sol. sp. reconstruction (how ???) Solar spectrum forecast (up to 3-4 hours) (how ???) Comparison with obs. Availability from web Tool for nowcast: free running global CCM: CICM (SOCOL with ion chemistry) 3-hour long ensemble run (~10) 1 hour – time step • Output parameters • 3D anomalies: • e, NO+, O2+, O2-, O- • O3, OH, NO, H2O • - T, U

  16. Input Solar rad. flux GCR flux SPE flux EEP flux Sun_cur.dat Neutron_cur.dat SPE_cur.dat EEP_cur.dat not important for D-region ? important only for high geom.lat ? Sun_nowcast.dat (t = 1, 2 h) More frequent data input allows the forecast with higher precision 1 hour 0 hour 2 hour 3 hour Takes into account radiation changes every hour

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