Three Lectures on Economic Efficiency and Growth

1. Three Lectures on Economic Efficiency and Growth CESifo Thorvaldur Gylfason

2. Outline and aims Present a policy-oriented overview of the theory and empirical evidence of economic growth Trace linkages between economic growth and its main determinants: saving, investment, and economic efficiency • Exogenous vs. endogenous growth • Liberalization, stabilization, privatization • Education, institutions, natural resources

3. Outline and aims Lecture I Saving, efficiency, and economic growth Lecture II Economic policy and growth Lecture III Education, natural resources, institutions, and empirical evidence

4. 1 Introduction Growth theory As old as economics itself Smith, Marshall, Schumpeter, Keynes Explicit growth theory started with Harrod and Domar in 1940s Why important? Unfashionable in 1960s and 1970s Limits to growth, etc. Growth and development

5. Growing apart Country B: 2% a year • Investment • Efficiency • Institutions • Policy Threefold difference after 60 years GNP per capita Country A: 0.4% a year 60 0 Years

6. Economic growth: The short run vs. the long run Economic growth in the long run Potential output Actual output Upswing National economic output Business cycles in the short run Downswing Time

7. Other comparisons • West-Germany vs. East-Germany • Austria vs. Czech Republic • US vs. USSR • South Korea vs. North Korea • Taiwan vs. China • Finland vs. Estonia • See my Pictures of Growth • www.hi.is/~gylfason/pictures2.htm China vs. Europe: 1:1 in 1400 1:20 in 1989

8. Further comparisons Thailand vs. Burma Mauritius vs. Madagascar Botswana vs. Nigeria Tunisia vs. Morocco Spain vs. Argentina Dominican Republic vs. Haiti

9. Singapore and Malaysia: GNP per capita 1962-2001 6.1% Current US$, Atlas method (1.02)40 = 2.2 4.1%

10. Botswanaand Nigeria: GNP per capita 1962-2001 Current US$, Atlas method

11. Spain and Argentina: GNP per capita 1962-2001 Current US$, Atlas method

12. Mauritius and Madagascar: GNP per capita 1962-2001 Current US$, Atlas method

13. Ireland and Greece: GNP per capita 1962-2001 Current US$, Atlas method

14. Basic growth theory Harrod-Domar model Solow model Endogenous growth model Let’s do the algebra

15. A Harrod-Domar model Two assumptions Fixed saving rate Fixed capital/output ratio Implications for growth replacement net gross

16. Harrod-Domar model Three propositions about growth Saving increases growth Efficiency increases growth v = K/Y 1/v = Y/K Depreciation reduces growth

17. B Output growth equals labor force growth Solow model Four assumptions Full employment Constant growth of labor force Constant returns to scale Saving equals investment

18. Solow model Endogenous output/capital ratio Exogenous Exogenous Endogenous Need to determine k and hence y/k

19. Solow model Dynamic stability of output/capital ratio Stable equilibrium

20. Solow model Dynamic stability of output/capital ratio Stable equilibrium E

21. Solow model Two equations in two unknowns, y and k Long-run equilibrium

22. Solow model E Output per head Comparative statics: E moves in response to changes in s, A, n, and  Output/capital ratio Capital per worker

23. Solow model Four propositions about long-run growth Increased saving increases income per capita Increased efficiency increases income per capita Increased population growth reduces income per capita Increased depreciation reduces income per capita

24. Closed-form solution to Solow model Labor-augmenting technological progress

25. Closed-form solution to Solow model

26. Closed-form solution to Solow model a(+n+q) is the speed of convergence

27. Closed-form solution to Solow model time

28. Solow model: Convergence Takes 17 years to close half the gap Takes 40 years to close 80% of the gap

29. Solow model: Convergence Output per head Rich country’s initial income per head Poor country must grow faster if it is to catch up Poor country’s initial income per head Capital per worker

30. An Increase in the Saving Rate C C’ P F Output per head E Capital per worker

31. An Increase in Static Efficiency C P’ F P Output per head E Capital per worker

32. An Increase in Population Growth or Depreciation C’ C P E Output per head F Capital per worker

33. An Increase in Dynamic Efficiency (Technical Progress) C’ C F P’ P Output per head E Capital per worker

34. Solow model: Conclusion Three main points to note Long-run growth is exogenous: g = n + q • No role for economic forces, policy or institutions, just technology • But education is good for growth Model implies convergence • Poor countries grow more rapidly than rich The medium term can be quite long • Growth is endogenous for a long while

35. Solow model with education H = skilled labor L = raw labor, b = years of schooling AH grows at n + q + b Education stimulates long-run growth

36. C Endogenous growth E = efficiency E = 1/v in Harrod-Domar Harrod-Domar, again, without the drawbacks Two equations in two unknowns, g and q

37. Let’s take four examples Endogenous growth Saving rate times efficiency minus depreciation Economic growth, g C A B 45° O Technological progress, q Population growth

38. 1 A tax on education and endogenous growth G = government spending on education G is financed by tax on capital Constant returns to capital A tax to finance education is good for growth

39. 2 Inflation, money, and endogenous growth Output is made by financial and real capital Inflation reduces the use of financial capital Inflation impedes growth

40. Education and endogenous growth, again 3 R&D model (Romer) b = fraction of labor force engaged in R&D bL = number of workers engaged in R&D A = stock of existing knowledge Growth depends on R&D

41. Education and endogenous growth, once more 4 Human capital model (Lucas) c = human capital Less education means less growth h = fraction of time spent on work Let’s look at some evidence, but first …

42. How growth becomes endogenous Solow model: when s rises, E = Y/K falls due to decreasing returns to capital, so g stays put Endogenous growth: when s rises, E stays put due to constant returns to capital, so g rises

43. Empirical growth research • Cross-country regressions • Large samples, beginning in 1960 or 1970 • Cross sections vs. panels • Averages vs. initial values of independent variables • Cost of simultaneity bias vs. cost of discarding available data • Recursive modeling vs. instruments • Levels of income vs. rates of growth

44. Recursive modeling Growth regression g = a0 – a1y0 + a2x + a3z (1) where x is exogenous and z is endogenous z = b0 + b1y0 – b2x (2) where z is, say, education and x is natural resource reliance Eq. (2) makes z exogenous, so (1) and (2) can be estimated by OLS TSLS calls for instruments that help explain z without being correlated with g: Not easy

45. Levels of income vs. rates of growth

46. Levels of income vs. rates of growth

47. Levels of income vs. rates of growth

48. Levels of income vs. rates of growth

49. Levels of income vs. rates of growth Conditional convergence requires b > 0  < 1 One-to-one correspondence between parameters

50. Absolute convergence: Growth rates Equatorial Guinea b = 0.864 165 countries