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Experiments!

Experiments!. Direct Influence. Three Degrees of Influence. Alter Influence Persists. Alter ’ s Alter Influence Persists. Period 1. Period 2. Period 3. Period 4. Eleni. Effects Persist Over Time. Lucas. Lucas. Lucas Lysander. 1. Erika James. Erika. Erika. Erika Harla. 2.

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Experiments!

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  1. Experiments!

  2. Direct Influence

  3. Three Degrees of Influence

  4. Alter Influence Persists

  5. Alter’s Alter Influence Persists

  6. Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Eleni Effects Persist Over Time Lucas Lucas Lucas Lysander 1 Erika James Erika Erika Erika Harla 2 Degrees of Separation from Eleni Jay Jay Brecken 3 Behavior Spreads 3 Degrees of Separation

  7. The Network Acts Like aMatching Grant Each a Person Gives in First Round.... CausesOthersto Give

  8. 105 Close Friends in a Dorm

  9. Friends and Ethnic Clubs

  10. Friends, Clubs, Roommates,

  11. Friends, Clubs, Roommates,plus Facebook!

  12. Smilers Non Smilers

  13. Voting • Voting highly correlated in friends & family(Berelson, Lazarsfeld, McPhee 1954) • Mobilization is “contagious” (Nickerson 2008) • Can voting spread online? • We conducted a massive randomized controlled trial on Facebook in 2010

  14. Social Message N = 60,055,176

  15. Message about user voting appears in news feed

  16. Message Only N = 611,044

  17. No Message N = 613,096

  18. Yahtzee! • Hash voter data, use hash to assign a group • Measure groupturnout • Hash Facebook data, use hash to assign a group • Assign turnout based on match groups • Repeat until desired level of accuracy is obtained • Do stats on group turnout vs. group treatment

  19. Vote Validation • 6 Million Users • 13 States (1/3 of population) • “Yahtzee” procedure to protect anonymity • 33% match rate

  20. Randomization Check

  21. a Informational Message Social Message

  22. Measuring Social Contagion Compare political behavior of friends of the treatment group to friends of the control group

  23. Are close friends more influential? • Friendship on Facebook • “Find a Friend” project • Contacts a measure of tie strength

  24. Measuring “Close” Friends Think of the people you have spent time with in your life, your friends with whom you have a close relationship. Your friends might also include family members, neighbors, coworkers, classmates, advisors, and so on. Please list your best friend first, then your next best friend, and so on. You may name up to ten people.

  25. Measuring “Close” Friends

  26. Distribution of Friends • 8.3 Billion Non-close Friends • 767 Million Close Friends • 16 Billion Close Friends of Close Friends

  27. Social Contagion Does your friend’s mobilization affect your voting behavior?

  28. 2/5 3/5 7/15 6/15 10/25 8/25 Testing for Significance RANDOM NETWORK OBSERVED NETWORK

  29. 0 = +0.011

  30. 0 = N.S.

  31. 0 = N.S.

  32. Friend Effects

  33. Total Effects

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