Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopter Using tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts

1. Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopterUsing tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts

2. Too much new product research is a waste of money because it talks to the wrong people

3. Not all consumers are equal - most consumers are followers… Late Majority Early Majority mass market followers EarlyAdopters Laggards LEADCONSUMERS mass market followers Innovators mass market followers _ _ _ _ x + sd 16% 2.5% x - 2sd 13.5% x - sd 34% x 34% Key Adopter Categories. Source: Rogers (1995) Diffusion of Innovations

4. Followers’ opinions are based on those of others… …so they are of little use in indicating where the market is heading

5. So, I need to talk to early adopters, right? The adoption “chasm” Product Adopters Early Adopters, visionaries Early Majority, pragmatists Late Majority, conservatives Innovators, enthusiasts Laggards, skeptics Time Well, yes, but… Source: Moore, 1999

6. Talking to Early Adopters is not the final answer… • Early Adopters… …all too often Early Abandoners • Their interest in a new product is often a passing whim • based primarily on its novelty value • once the novelty has worn off so does their interest • For this reason Early Adopters can be as much Fad Creators as they can be Trend Creators • Is there a better definition of the elusive ‘Lead Consumer’?

7. A step in the right direction: a few key consumers drive diffusion… a special kind of early adopter: Connectors

8. Connectors • Connected early adopters • Hubs of social networks • Gatekeepers to product diffusion • Connect you to your mass market                         

9. But this is still not enough….. • It takes more than a curiosity in new things and the connectedness to spread new ideas before an individual can truly be considered influential in any long-term, meaningful way… • …a way that will generate and sustain long-term growth prospects for new ideas. • What’s still missing? • 2 things…

10. 1. New Consumers Rule OK

11. The 5 Key Pillars of New Consumerism 1. They value Authenticityand Originalityin all that they buy and experience 2. They are well Informedand hugely Involved in the products, services and brands that they buy 3. They are Individualistic – they do things “my way” – and increasingly demand companies do too 4. They are Time Poorand value anything that saves them time 5. They are Socially Responsible– and exercise their ethical awareness via their product and brand choices These traits can be measured at an individual level

12. 2. Category Matters

13. Future Shapers: 10% of the market EarlyAdopter Connector NewConsumer Finding the Future Shapers in a category Involved in Category

14. The hierarchical model of Future Influence: developed category by category Connected Early Adopters Unconnected Laggards New Consumers (Informed, Active) 10% Future Shapers 20% Future Makers 40% Today Consumers 20% Yesterday Consumers (Uninformed, Passive) Old Consumers 10% Yesteryear Consumers

15. FutureView in NPD… who to involve when Purpose Creation Development Testing Method Qualitative Quantitative Future Shaper Panels General Consumer Panels Resource Future Shapers Future Makers Today Consumers Yesterday Consumers Yesteryear Consumers

16. Their knowledge of and involvement with products and brands, their acceptance of change, means they are great Idea Generators-don’t limit their role to evaluation Future Shapersmake great participants! • Great for breaking through the inertia and familiarity that surround established brands and stifle great innovation • Future Shapers are not so blinkered! • Build an ongoing dialogue with Future Shapers to keep abreast of what’s happening in their world - what’s hot and what’s not! • Inspiration Panels offer a dedicated insight resource Idea Generation and Development:Forget ‘respondents’ and think ‘participants’

17. Working with Future Shapers to build winning ideas • Incubate: • On-the-spot brainstorming with strangers doesn’t work • Incubating ideas in own time, own place, with peers DOES • Spark! • Bring them together to spark off one another • Identify Issues and build powerful Ideas Idea Generation and Development:The Consumer Genesis Process • Engage: • Treat participants as intelligent equals – engage them in the task • Consumer Consultants

18.  Within three months of launch, JJ Bubbles has become the No.2 fruit-flavoured CSD in service stations Case Study: Just Juice Bubbles • Just Juice a successful juice brand in NZ, but struggling to find exciting, meaningful innovation • Consumer groups commonly rejecting new ideas because… “that’s not my familiar Just Juice – please don’t change it” • An Inspiration Panel, made up of cold beverage Future Shapers uncovers opportunity for new product idea – Future Shapers are already mixing Just Juice and lemonade themselves in an effort to make a “personalised, healthy alternative CSD” • Concept of Just Juice Bubbles was born (50:50 Juice:Lemonade mix) • Given an ‘Okay’ by Today Consumers in groups BUT generates real excitement amongst Future Shapers • Subsequently shown to be a future-proofed idea in quantitative concept screening

19. Case Study: Hello, my name is “Frank” • Frucor Beverages (part of Danone) very successful in Australasia, based on strong juice, water and energy drink brands • But very weak in fizzies - require ground-breaking innovation to make an impact on the market • Consumer Genesis workshops with cold drinks Future Shapers found a viable path: • An ‘adult only’ range (most fizzy brands very youth-focused) • Simple, no-nonsense, tell it like it is brand values and personality (“frank” is the perfect description of this personality) • A range of flavours that is “familiar, but with a twist” • Not excessively sweet or sugary; light flavour and light sparkle • Glass bottles, small serving size to emphasise ‘adultness’ • The result… A very successful brand launch

20. Why you shouldn’t trust an early adopterUsing tomorrow's consumers to create tomorrow's concepts