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Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003

Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003. 2009 Summer AMS Community Meeting Aug 10-13 th , 2009. Picture. Nick Keener, CCM Director, Meteorology. Picture. DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US.

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Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003

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  1. Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003 2009 Summer AMS Community Meeting Aug 10-13th, 2009 Picture Nick Keener, CCM Director, Meteorology Picture

  2. DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US. • Serves customers in 5 states: North and South Carolina, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. • 3.9 million retail electric customers • 500,000 retail gas customers • 47,000 square miles of Service Area • ~ 37,000 MW Generation in the US and 4,000 MW of Generation in Latin America

  3. Duke Energy North America Power Generation Facilities

  4. Weather Forecasts, Mesoscale Observations and Climate information are used to make daily operational decisions in the following areas: • Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization • Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources • Hourly pricing • Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation • Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories • Seasonal Forecasts for revenue projections • Support energy trading and marketing activities in both the regulated and non-regulated generation • Support Emergency Management for Storm Response

  5. Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization • Hourly forecasts of temperatures, dew points, wind speed and cloud cover for input into load forecast models • Real-time surface observations • Precipitation projections • Forecasts developed from NCEP models, MOS, and local forecast methods developed internally

  6. Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources • Twice daily QPF forecasts that are input into our Hydro Management System (1-3 days) • Medium range QPF projections for lake/river management (4 to 7 days) • Real-time QPE for inflow estimates • Seasonal forecasts for longer range planning and resource availability

  7. Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation • Daily Weather forecast Scenario development to capture uncertainty and project a range of possible loads out to 3 days • Forecasts of convection, timing and coverage for possible load shedding • Temperature/wind forecasts for transmission line ratings and lake/river temperature thermal restrictions

  8. Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories • Monthly/seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation are used for predicting coal inventories, gas storage numbers, and hydro availability • Seasonal forecasts of HDD and CDD are used to estimate revenue projections

  9. Support trading and marketing of energy • Short and medium range forecasts are used for asset management (Day 1 through 5) • Daily market analysis based on region and national weather forecast. • Full suite of forecast projections for 35 cites in the 1 – 15 day range

  10. Support Emergency Management for Storm Response

  11. Weather Forecasts are utilized for resource scheduling in pre-storm planning for utility operations

  12. Future weather forecast needs? • Implementation of a proposed National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) which would provide probabilistic forecast information. • Improving Ensemble forecasts for both short and long range models and make them available through NOAA Port. • Improve the Ensemble MOS product past day 3 by removing climatology as a predictor. • Implement an Ensemble QPF forecast

  13. Real-time surface observations are used for the following operational decisions: • System load management • System load modeling • Resource decisions related to on-going severe weather events • Inflow calculations for hydroelectric operations • Emergency response decisions related to non-routine releases

  14. Future Mesonet Needs? • Increased spatial resolution of surface observations • Real-time SFC data available from a national network via NOAA Port every 15 minutes • Atmospheric boundary layer measurements using remote sensing systems for characterizing the PBL in real-time.

  15. Recommendations under the Human Dimension – BASC Report • The stakeholders should commission an independent team of social and physical scientists to conduct end-user assessment for selected sectors. The assessment…………………added societal impact and value. • Themes – • Weather prediction and climate modeling • Support new applications in physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in expanding the user base • Integrated feedback mechanisms

  16. Main driver in the energy sector • Technology?

  17. Q&A

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