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Portfolio Review & Market Outlook// Greg Matthews, CEO Independent Asset Management

Portfolio Review & Market Outlook// Greg Matthews, CEO Independent Asset Management Manager for All Star IAM Australian Share Fund October 2013. Disclaimer.

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Portfolio Review & Market Outlook// Greg Matthews, CEO Independent Asset Management

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  1. Portfolio Review & Market Outlook// Greg Matthews, CEO Independent Asset Management Manager for All Star IAM Australian Share Fund October 2013

  2. Disclaimer The material shown in this presentation has been prepared and issued by Ventura Investment Management Limited, ABN 49 092 375 258, AFSL 253045 (Ventura). Equity Trustees Limited ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL 240975 (EQT) is the responsible entity of the Ventura and All Star series of funds. Information contained in this document is of a general nature only. It is not intended as advice, as it does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. Investment can only be made on an application form attached to the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or through an IDPS operator . Copies of the PDS are available from Ventura or your financial planner.

  3. Contents • Portfolio Review • Market Review and Outlook • Current Portfolio Positioning • Summary

  4. Performance Review Sep 30, pre fees

  5. Performance Review – Unit Price Outperformance: July 3.2% Aug 2.4% * Since June 30: Unit price up 9.7%* *Aug 10 est.

  6. Performance Review Relative Performance Distribution Chart Jan2002 to 30 September 2013 (net of fees since Jul 2007) • IAM Outperformance statistics: • 69% outperform in up months (62/90) • 39% outperform in down months (20/51) • Market statistics: • Jan02 to Sep13 = 141 months • 90 (64%) up months • 51 (36%) down months

  7. Portfolio Review Recent stock additions/removals/increases/decreases • Move to market weight in listed property • Trim outperforming discretionary retailers • Trim outperforming industrials – steel/transport • Trim outperforming internet stocks • Trim outperforming oil stocks • Trim outperforming iron ore stocks above limit • Increase underperforming gold stocks • Increase insurance and healthcare 7

  8. Market Review & Outlook 8

  9. Target is 6000 to match recovery after5 year bear markets in 1973and 1987 9

  10. ASX300 P/E can support rise to 5800-6000

  11. Consensus earnings revisions

  12. OECD Leading Indicator turns higher

  13. ML “Global Wave” turns higher from shallow drop

  14. ML Global Industrial Confidence Strong

  15. ML Global earnings revisions

  16. Most of the rally has been re-rating

  17. Global investors over weight cash

  18. Global equity inflows +ve but slowing

  19. Chinese market rising again

  20. Resources outperforming since June 30

  21. China growth supports resources • China- Government committed to 7.5% growth in 2013 and minimum 7% thereafter •  Q3 GDP growth rebounded to 7.8% vs 7.5% in Q2 • Capital formation 55.8% of GDP; Consumption 45.9%; X -1.7% • Q4E GDP growth (companies): 65% stable; 23% up; 12% down

  22. Fortescue shorts at 12% of free float

  23. All Resources just moving up from low – outperformed by 6% since end April

  24. Banks outperformance still near high

  25. Resources P/E 13.2x – 13% below average

  26. China crude steel output hits a record

  27. Steel inventories still low as a ratio of sales

  28. Iron Ore Mill Inventories < average

  29. China iron ore port stocks just above 3-year lows

  30. Westpac-MI leading index slows to 3.2%

  31. Housing finance approvals rise

  32. House price expectations rise – good for retailers

  33. It isn’t really about yield!

  34. Current Portfolio Positioning Top active positions(Oct 13) Sector allocations (Oct 13) Top ten positions (Oct 13) 34

  35. Outlook • IAM performed very strongly after GFC • Portfolio positions similar now to post GFC period • Same factors driving markets now • Shares still undervalued relative to bonds and cash • quantitative easing and rising commodity prices • very low ownership of shares and “risk assets” • bubble in “safe havens” • Expect strong rise in very undervalued market led by resources • IAM positioned for move 6000 by March-June 2014 35

  36. Thank you 36

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