Towards a Climate Impact Monitoring Indicators, archetypes and success factors for action

1. Towards a Climate Impact MonitoringIndicators, archetypes and success factors for action Jürgen P. KroppPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach Budapest, Sept. 4-5th2008

2. COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 29.6.2007 COM(2007) 354 final GREEN PAPERFROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Climate change: building adaptive capacity of local and regional authorities 2. National KomPass Kompetenzzentrum Klimafolgen und Anpassung Chamber of the Regions 3. Regional/Local: ? – issue of ongoing research Hierarchy of Adaptation „Strategies & Concepts“ 1. Global/Supranational Challenge: Strengthening efficiency of institutions, e.g. by adequate facilitation/capacities, but how....

3. Randa/Switzerland 1991 > 8 Mio. to. induced, intensified UK/Norfolk 2007 ? - safe environments - Question: fight against or living with CC? Understanding: Information, Awareness, Communication,Vulnerability, Risk,Preparedness • Difficulties: • Insufficient knowledge • Organisational problems • Capacity problems • Problem of scales Portugal 2003 Tuvalu 2005 No action?

4. Necessary Preconditions for “successful” Adaptation Distinguish between adaptation and adaptive capacity! 1. Systems knowledge 2. Problem awareness 3. Adequate instruments 4. Success measures (time?, which metric) Indicators measuring only a state are not sufficient!

5. Stimulus: Storm Exposed unit: Forest sectors Indicators: Tree types, slope, rel. storm intensity/frequency Actual Damage 2007 after Cyclone Kyrill Sectoral Vulnerability North-Rhine Westphalia/Germany (1999) Nothing happens Source: Kropp et al. 2006, Climatic Change

6. Awareness/knowledge is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for adequate action! Drowning New Orleans by Mark Fischetti Scientific American (October 1, 2001) The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under twenty feet of water. "As the water recedes", says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies". New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh - an area the size of Manhattan - will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (LSU), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers...................

7. Risk prone area below 1m Large scale tourism Tourism, Water & Sea-level rise: Saidia • bad practice: Why developing countries often follow the same pattern: • Economy firstvs. Sustainability first Quelle: Tekken & Kropp 2008

8. „Umweltlimits“ für Saidia/Moulouya 1961-1990 1976-2005 2005 2050ff 383mm 350mm 245mm-100mm 2005 available: Fresh water (~16 mm = 7%of prec.) 880 * 106 m3/J groundwater (partly salinised) 450 * 106 m3/J actual: 1330 * 106 m3/J Demand (* 106 m3) 2005 2015 Population (potable water) ~2.4. Mio ~2.5 Mio. 96 100 (+3.8%) “economy first” golf courses: 1.9ha/hole; 9,000 m3/yr/ha 210ha: 1.9 400ha: 3.6 (+88%) 1 tourist ~ 6-800 l/d 0.5 (?) 2.6 (+420%) irrigated land 6,500m3/ha/J 150 103: 975 180 103: 1170 (+20%) Industry 80 117 (+46%) in 2015 163bnl/yr below sust. level Source: Tekken & Kropp 2008

9. EU Development ProgrammeDeveloping Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Region (ASTRA, finished 2007) Are we ready for adaptation? • 38 Partners from 7 European countries • Most of them administrative bodies, management authorities, etc. • 15 case study areas were situated in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Lativa and Poland

10. Some results from systematic examinations • Problem awareness is primarily framed by potential impacts in the case study regions, little explicit knowledge on policy responses, exposure units are only described in a very vague or general way. • Climate change is still not a priority on the local or regional level, and lack of financial resources hinders adaptation. • Many constraining institutional arrangements are seen as informal. They have the form of complaints about “soft factors” as missing knowledge and citizens’ awareness, inadequate education, political inaction and bad coordination of diverse institutions. • Problems are more found on the local scale, while enabling institutions and actors are seen on higher levels. It is likely that there is a shift of responsibilities to higher institutional scales (mitigation?). • Most existing climate change policies are related to • Natural hazards (event related) • National greenhouse gas mitigation strategies • Although some responses advert at local interactions between actors influencing implementation of adaptation policies, there is little strategic knowledge on who supports or constrains adaptation to climate change. Eisenack/Tekken/Kropp (2007): Coastline Report

11. Management of or Adaptation to risks need knowledge about mechanisms!….but how to analyse entangled dynamics of socio-ecological systems?….how to integrate policy on an acceptable level of abstraction?…how to assess efficiency of management options?

12. Adaptation Functionalsand Archetypes • Challenges • modelling adaptation • entangeled impacts, exposure units and responses – but need for transfer of adaptation strategies • aggregation of damages and adaptations on spatial and institutional scales • Approaches on an intermediate level of abstraction • archetypes of adaptation (including action dimension) • adaptation functionals („classes“)

13. ASTRA: Preliminary Archetypes

14. games causal loopdiagrams Data driven models theories boolean analysis participatory Case A 0 0 0 1 Case B 1 0 0 1 … 1 1 1 0 mathematical models Archetype XYZ scenarios Case A Case B Case C Case … idiographic qualitative models local maps ((M+ x y)) ((U- y z) (0 max)) ((MULT x y z)) global maps Qualitative and Quantitative Methods cf. Kropp & Scheffran 2007

15. Research Themes • Theoretical development • Aggregation and scale issues (adaptation functionals, archetypes of adaptation) • Measuring adaptation and adaptedness • Assessment and use of transparent, science-based vulnerability indicators • Basic questions (e.g. terminology, necessity of policy action and anticipation)

16. Faces of Vulnerability: Useful for comparison Climate Change Climate Change Community Disaster Management Community Development Community Spatial scale Global/regional local individual Socio-economic constraints Millenium Development Goals Current Livelihood conditions Long-term climate development & protection Exposed units and their capacities Disaster „mitigation“ Robust Infrastructure Event oriented view Challenges & Views

17. Vulnerability, subjective but good for comparison Prepared for UN Sigma Xi 2006

18. Top Down: National Policy Science & Stakeholder interaction „Institutional efficiency!“ Bottom up: Local Experience

19. Construction of Archetypes • Is a social process • Style of description based on common methodological ground • Discourse on shape and priority of patterns • Quality control by process documentation, achivement of (external) objectives, case studies, available theories, validation of archetypes • Needs refinement and operationalization • Possible with different methods

20. BaWü NRW-I/II Experiences „Semi-formalised elements“ of Adaptation Measures constructing archetypes Actors & Type Normative orientation Institutional level Individual NGO Time scale Duration (fixed/open) Temporal scope Stream of costs & benefits How adaptation occurs Effect on policy Involved goods/properties Adaptive control Area of intervention Regulatory instrument Society Vulnerability Target impacts Changes of socio-economics Mid-term goal: shared problem solving competence (adaptation wizard) Purpose & Form Spatial scale Structural, legal, financial,... Retreat, prevent, restore Performance Costs Efficiency Implementability

21. Hypothesis: To similar problems can be responded by similar solutions! • Questions: • How vague or concrete are existing measures defined? • Are typical adaptations composed of different measures, or are they simple building blocks? • Are there established classifications that help to distinguish or to generate measures? • What kind of activities are considered to be an adaptation? • .....let us start with the discussions

22. Towards a Global Climate Impact & Adaptation Information System Combining: Scenarios, Impacts Infrastructure, Solutions Information about adaptation experiences, costs (via Geo-Tags), etc. Source: PIK/Kropp & Costa (2008) Kropp & Daschkeit (2008)‏

23. PIK’s Virtual Vegetation Visualiser