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Economic Development Perspectives of the area of the Elbe/Oder Chamber Union (KEO)

Economic Development Perspectives of the area of the Elbe/Oder Chamber Union (KEO) Dr. Silvia Stiller Brussels 25th June 2013. Agenda Demographic and economic perspectives Trade and Transportation Fields of action.

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Economic Development Perspectives of the area of the Elbe/Oder Chamber Union (KEO)

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  1. Economic Development Perspectives of the area of the Elbe/Oder Chamber Union (KEO) Dr. Silvia Stiller Brussels 25th June 2013

  2. Agenda • Demographicand economicperspectives • Trade andTransportation • Fields ofaction

  3. KEO: 6 Polishvoivodships, 7 German Federal States, regionof Lüneburg, 2Czech districts (kray), Prague

  4. KEO in Europe • 37.6 m inhabitants (EU: 502.5 m): 7,5 % of EU population • 155.5 inhabitants per km² (EU: 116.4 per km²) • Unemployment rate 9.8 % (EU: 9.6 %) • Employment rate 50.6 % (EU: 53.5 %) • GDP: 720 Mrd. : 5,7 of EU GDP • GDP per capita 19,028 Euro (EU: 25,100 Euro) (asof 2008)

  5. KEO in Europe: Cross borderintegrationarea

  6. Sectoral structure • Large dispairiteswithinthe KEO region • different specialisationpatterns: trade potential • Forthefuture a processofstructuralconvergencescanbeexpected; i.e. structuralpatternsbecomemoresimilar • Overall trend: Knowledgebasedstructuralchange • Expansion ofservicesectors, but servicesandindustriesarecloselyrelated

  7. Sectoralstructure

  8. Sectoralstructure

  9. Preconditions for structural change • Crucial role of qualified person • Investments in research and development as driving forces for structural change and economic growth • Different starting points as to innovation potential

  10. Innovation potential

  11. Income • large income gaps per person between the regions of KEO • German regions and Praha have highest income per capita • Relatively low per capita income in Polish regions • Catching up processes which are expected to go on in the future • But: spatial polarisation, especially between cities and rural areas, might be fostered

  12. Per capita income

  13. Catchingupprocess, reductionofincomedisparities

  14. Demographicperspectives 2030 • overall European trend: ageingandshrinkingpopulation • populationdeclineby 6.4% until 2030 in KEO region • rural areas lose population • citiesareattractivetoimmigrants • populationdecreaseinfluenceslaboursupplyandeconomic potential

  15. Population forecastuntil 2030*

  16. Trade and transportation • Trade between Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic has developed very dynamically during last decades • GDP growth as driving force for cross border trade • Essential factor: cross border infrastructure and transaction • Trade volume as crucial determinant for traffic in KEO region; trade form KEO members will increase and impact on traffic; high demand

  17. Trade expansion

  18. Trade andfreighttraffic, modal split 2009

  19. Trade andfreighttraffic, modal split 2009

  20. Trade perspectives 2030 • GDP rises in all three countries: In Polandby 93.8 %, Czech Republic 59.3 %, Germany 32.9 (HWWI forecast) • Export growthforPolandandthe Czech Republicof 201.4 % orelse 146.5 % • Export growthfor Germany of 92.7 % • Ports ascentresof international trade

  21. Port locations in the KEO

  22. Port locations • Hamburg harbourisoneofthebiggest European portsandcargohandlingdevelops – like in otherregions - verydynamically • Port of Gdansk, outside theregion, also tradecentrefor KEO members

  23. Ports androadnetwork

  24. Port locationsandaccessibilty:Hinterland connectionsandtransportroutes • hinterland connections are competition factors • infrastructural bottlenecks in the hinterland • perspectives of intermodal traffic • heterogenous density of transport routes • regional variation of navigability of inland waterways

  25. Fields ofaction • Supporting knowledge-based structural change • Invesments in research and development, education • Cross-border networ • Ongoing integration of KEO in cross-border international division of labour

  26. Fields ofaction • Crucialfactorsformoreintenseintegrationandhigherbenefitsofcross-borderrelationships • Reductionoftransactioncost • Expandingtransportinfrastructure; specificneedsof urban centres • Strengthenpotentialsofinlandwaterwaytransport

  27. Commissioned by: With kind support of: 5

  28. Contact Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) Dr. Silvia Stiller stiller@hwwi.org Dr. Jan Wedemeier wedemeier@hwwi.org www.hwwi.org

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