April 10, 2007

1. Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Reno, NevadaMay 8-12, 2011 Presented by: Jaesup Lee, Virginia Department of Transportation Paul Agnello, Virginia Department of Transportation Patrick Coleman, AECOM April 10, 2007

2. Overview • Project under consideration • Potential travel markets for new facility • Forecasting tool (soon to be) available • Potential Forecasting Methodology • Questions

3. Proposed Project • South of US 17 in Spotsylvania County to just south of Route 234 in Prince William County • Proposed to operate as HOV (and Bus)/HOT facility • Overlaps/connects with I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes project (to DC area) Source: USDOT/FHWA/VDOT, Environmental Assessment, I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes Project, August 2010

4. The project, con’t. • Two-lane, reversible, limited access express route in I-95 median • Buses, HOV-3, and motorcycles travel free • Electronic tolling (EZPASS) for other users – rate could vary by time of day, travel speed, etc. • Conceptual operations plan: • Midnight to 10 am – northbound • 10 am to noon – closed for switchover • Noon to 10 pm – southbound • 10 pm to midnight – closed for switchover Source: USDOT/FHWA/VDOT, Environmental Assessment, I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes Project, August 2010

5. Potential Travel Market- Person Trips to DC Core Year 2009 Average Weekday Person Trips I-95 Source: 2009 NHTS Virginia Add On Version 2 Project

6. Potential Travel Market - Travel to DC Core by Transit Virginia Railway Express (VRE) Fredericksburg Line Potomac and Rappahannock Transportation Commission (PRTC) Commuter Buses Source: 2008 MWCOG Regional Bus Survey Other private commuter bus operators Source: 2007 VRE On Board Survey

7. Slug Travel Market (We’re not talking Mollusks)! • Unique to DC area (and maybe SF) • Casual carpools • Pick up/drop off at designated areas • Free ride, drivers get HOV access • “Slug” coined by bus operators – similar to counterfeit tokens Source: www.sluglines.com

8. Slugs, con’t. Source: SIR/VDOT, Survey of Northern Virginia Sluggers, January 2011

9. The Tool - Fredericksburg Area MPO (FAMPO) model • Current Version (3) • Assigns highway trips to three time periods (AM Peak, PM Peak, Off Peak) • Models HOT lanes using a diversion curve from I-394 MnPass project • Contains a process to estimate Virginia Railway Express (VRE) commuter rail trips from Fredericksburg to Washington, DC area • No full mode choice • Version 4 under development • Part of VDOT Major Models Update plan • Updated trip generation/distribution using NHTS Virginia Add On • Final highway assignment in four time periods (AM Peak, Midday, PM Peak, Night) • Revised volume-delay functions (and forecast tolling methodology)

10. More FAMPO model enhancements • Expanded model area to include the southern Prince William County region below the Occoquan River. • The zones, nodes and links are from the NCRTPB model network (v2.2 with 2191 zones) and renumbered • Select link analysis procedures in the NCRTPB model to obtain the additional trip flows from/to southern Prince William County • Transit networks coded and skim procedures set up for the “regular” transit (FRED buses and VRE feeders) and “commuter” transit (PRTC, MARTZ, QUICK and VRE routes). • Full mode choice models • Internal trip purposes (FRED Routes) • Commuter (HBW IE) trip purpose (travel on I-95 corridor to DC area) • CUBE Scripts and catalogs consistent with other VDOT models

11. Fredericksburg Expanded Model Area

12. Updated FredericksburgHighway Network

13. Potential Forecasting Methodology • No existing toll facility in immediate area • No available Stated Preference (SP) survey in corridor • Current FAMPO model uses toll diversion curve on experience in Minnesota (SP data from I-394 MnPASS Express Lanes) • New model will use a logit-type assignment based procedure • start with South Florida SP data • addresses differing values of time • constants to capture reliability and other unquantifiable aspects

14. Toll Choice Model from South Florida Source: RSG, Documentation for South Florida SP Travel Survey and Toll Mode Choice Models, July 2006

15. $5 toll comparison between MSP and South Florida • Illustrates differing VOTs by region • For 20 minute savings 20% toll in MSP but 30% in South Florida Source: AECOM

16. Potential Implementation in Fredericksburg • Coefficients: • Transfer Palm Beach coefficients to the FAMPO model • Adjust cost coefficients to reflect differences in income between Palm Beach County and Fredericksburg • Examine Dulles Toll Road SP survey for more localized VOTs • Constants: • Not transferable due to unique nature of travel in South Florida • No existing facility in Fredericksburg for calibration • Use a relatively close Peer facility to do a simple “calibration” in a spreadsheet • Careful testing to ensure any modeled results are reasonable

17. Dulles Greenway – potential peer facility • 12.5 mile privately owned toll road in Northern Virginia • Connects end of Dulles (Airport) Toll Road with the Leesburg Bypass (U.S. 15/SR 7) • Best regional candidate because of “base” and “congestion management” toll rates and electronic (EZPASS) discounts similar to many HOT lanes

18. Questions?