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Overview of WWRP/WG-Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR) activities Dale Barker,

Overview of WWRP/WG-Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR) activities Dale Barker, WWRP/WG-MWFR Slides supplied by Jeanette Onvlee, Chair (MWFR). Membership (DA Expertise). Jeanette Onvlee (KNMI, Netherlands, Chair) Dale Barker (Met Office, UK) Kazuo Saito (JMA/MRI, Japan)

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Overview of WWRP/WG-Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR) activities Dale Barker,

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  1. Overview of WWRP/WG-Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR) activities Dale Barker, WWRP/WG-MWFR Slides supplied by Jeanette Onvlee, Chair (MWFR) THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  2. Membership (DA Expertise) • Jeanette Onvlee (KNMI, Netherlands, Chair) • Dale Barker (Met Office, UK) • Kazuo Saito (JMA/MRI, Japan) • Volker Wulfmeyer (Univ. Hohenheim, Germany) • Stephane Belair (Environment Canada) • Jimy Dudhia (NCAR, USA) • Mattias Rotach (Univ. Innsbruck, Austria) • Yu Hui (CMA, China) New for 2011: • Peter Steinle (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) • Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC, Italy) THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  3. Activities • Focus on 0.5-5km grid size models, extratropics • Pushing mesoscale weather research questions in several fora • Help set up / involvement in RDP’s/FDP’s (COPS, B08RDP, Sochi?) • Dedicated workshops on specific topics (e.g. Nowcasting10/2011). • Liaisons with other WMO WG (e.g. Thorpex/TIGGE-LAM, WWRP/NWC, JWGV, WGNE, DAOS? …) • Last year activities on: • Organize “grey zone” experimentation (WGNE context) • Define/promote worldwide standards for mesoscale verification, and routine model quality assessment and exchange (together with JWGV) • Make inventory of available mesoscale training material, gaps therein • Next (5th) meeting 10-11 September 2011, Berlin. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  4. Past, present and possible future RDP’s and FDP’s • MAP-DPHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region • COPS: Convective Orographic Precipitation Study. Intense observation campaign in Rhine Valley area, subsequent process and predictability studies, and assimilation experiments • Beijing 2008 RDP: development, improvement, intercomparison and demonstration of LAM EPS systems. Potential future WMO RDP/FDP: • Sochi 2014?: RDP/FDP on high-resolution nowcasting and NWP support of Sochi Winter Olympic Games activities (see later). • HYMEX? THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  5. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  6. 3. B08FDP support 3hour Rapid Update Cycle System THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  7. Technique characteristics for all participants in 2008 THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  8. Accumulated Precipitation ( 04pm Aug.8—06am Aug. 9) National Stadium Example 1: Successful service for opening ceremony (National Stadium)

  9. During the Opening Ceremony, 5 RDP participants forecast a probability of less than30% for 1mm,and 10mm<=10% CAMS NMC JMA 30% ZAMG Canada NCEP 30% Courtesy Yihong Duan, CMA

  10. FROST-2014: FORECAST and RESEARCH in the OLYMPIC SOCHI TESTBED To improve, develop, demonstrate, and exploit: To improve understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in winter complex terrain: To demonstrate/deliver forecasts in real time to Olympic forecasters and decision makers in order to verify and quantify societal benefits of nowcasts and forecasts • Enhanced nowcasting observations in winter complex terrain; • mesoscale (250m-2km) deterministic forecasts of meteorological conditions in complex terrain environment; • regional EPS forecast products (>7km res); • nowcasts of high impact weather phenomena in complex terrain. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  11. Thoughts on DAOS/MWFR Links • WWRP/MWFR (convective-scale DA, <1day) complements WWRP/THORPEX/DAOS (Global DA, 1->=14day). • MWFR closest links so far with other WWRP groups: Nowcasting, Verification, etc. • Existing/potential MWFR/DAOS Interactions: • Shared expertise in DA techniques (tendency for global first, high-res after!) e.g. high-res. obs. sensitivities, but…. • Should MWFR provide guidance on high-res. DA for future global DA (e.g. cloud/precip DA)? • Provision of optimal (latest?) LBCs for MWFR RDP/FDPs. • Added value of high-res. DA vs global/regional NWP/DA. • Treatment of large-scales within high-resolution DA. • Observation selection for low/high-res DA. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  12. COPS RDP • Summer 2007: massive observation campaign • Subsequent analysis of IOP results: • Process studies on the convective life cycle, focussing on selected IOP cases • Research on new observation types: validation, intercomparison and joint interpretation, representativity studies, sensor synergy • Model validation studies (clouds, microphysics) • Tests of advanced data assimilation systems, development of observation operators, observation impact studies • Verification techniques and impact assessment of convective-permitting models • Joint COPS/D-PHASE Database collected, now generally available through DKRZ/Hamburg • COPS project complete in 2011 with production of QJRMS Special Issue. WGNE meeting, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

  13. JDC = Joint D-PHASE/COPS Verification data set D-PHASE Achievements • Unprecedented data set model intercomparison / validation process studies (with COPS) test beds (COST 731 for Data Assimilation, HEPEX) Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (WG MWFR) • Demonstration of operational coupling of hydrological and meteorological models

  14. D-PHASE Achievements Participation of users 45 end users institutions (civil protection ...) workshops & questionnaires feedback exchange of needs Scientific results  advances in ensemble hydrological modelling radar ensemble, high-resolution EPS, high-res reforecasting, fuzzy verification, economic forecast value, …. 22 peer reviewed papers 72 reports and ext. abs. 165 presentations BAMS Paper, Sept 2009

  15. Scientific issues • Mesoscale data assimilation: • What analysis setup is most appropriate for mesoscale/nowcasting? • How best to analyze moist processes, with minimal spinup? • How to add small scale information while retaining the strengths of the larger scale nesting analysis? • What is best way to use radar, cloud, hydrometeor information? • Convection and complex topography: • Grey zone issues (what to do between ~5-10km resolution – WGNE link) • How to best represent steep orography? • Surface modelling • Initiation and modelling of new, more realistic components (e.g. snow, urban) • High-quality high-resolution physiographic data • Predictability and probabilistic forecasting • What influences predictability on convection-permitting scales, and how to describe it? • Towards convection-permitting ensembles: practical methods, cross-fertilization of ensemble and DA techniques? • Underlying all: suitable verification and validation methods, coupled models WGNE meeting, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

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