1 / 7

International Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is Israel Prepared? August 2007

International Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is Israel Prepared? August 2007. Background: US-Israel ‘Special Relations’. Shared Values. Common Interests. US Domestic Support for Israel. US Reassessment of Middle East Interests. Offensive on US Pro-Israel Lobby. 2.

lise
Download Presentation

International Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is Israel Prepared? August 2007

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. International Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is Israel Prepared? August 2007

  2. Background:US-Israel ‘Special Relations’ Shared Values Common Interests US Domestic Support for Israel US Reassessment of Middle East Interests Offensive on US Pro-Israel Lobby 2

  3. Mindset:US-Israel Coordination on Iran Resolution during Bush term;Freedom to act if not 2 US-IL coordination on Iran 1 Stopping Iran: a) International pressure b) US military strike preferred c) Viable Israeli military option 3 3

  4. Reality:Iraq Redeployment is Organizing US Logic Bush admin: Regional diplomacy Military action  2 Pressure to withdraw 1 US ‘overstretch’ Iranian leverages in Iraq Direct US-Iran discussions EU / IAEA willingness to lead negotiations with Iran 3 4

  5. Issues for negotiation: 3 US Iran Entering talks Iran’s nuclear project US-Israel coordinated on Iran Iraq re-deployment is organizing US logic US in Iraq EU / IAEA Changing Reality Mindset Potential Israeli Strategic Surprise: Israel Left Out in Scenario of Int’l Deal 5

  6. Preserving Israel’s Interests in Deal Scenario “Good Deal”: Contains Iranian Hegemony “Bad Deal”: Enables Iranian Hegemony • Enables nuclear weapon; prolonged ‘negotiation umbrella’ • Stop nuclear military threat • Contain Resistance Network • Fails to limit Resistance Network • Maintain US presence / status in region • Iranian regional hegemony; Iraq resolved unfavorably • Enables regional political process • Prevent need for high-risk military confrontation • Iran ‘veto power’ on reg’l process 6

  7. Reut Campaign for Israeli Decision-Makers:Relevancy in All Iran Resolution Scenarios Call GOI attention: 2 1 Blind Spot Identification Knowledge Development Briefings with GOI officials Reut paper: ‘Libyan Scenario’ Barak Ravid, Ha’aretz Exit when GOI enters 3 7

More Related