Earth System Science Partnership for Global Chan ge Research

1. Earth System Science Partnershipfor Global Change Research Start • an integrated study of the Earth System, • the changes occurring to the System, and • the implications for global sustainability. Integrated Regional Studies

2. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) • Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+) Objectives • To determine the predictability of climate • To determine the effect of human activities on climate

3. Achievements after 25 years of WCRP • Significantly improved observing systems (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere) • Sophisticated coupled climate models • Advanced assimilation techniques and forecast techniques / systems including ones based on ensembles of models • L-T predictions possible, e.g. El Nino… • Another level of knowledge about climate predictability and change • etc.

4. Challenges for WCRP • Seamless prediction problem - medium range, weeks, decades, centuries • Prediction of the broader climate/Earth system • Demonstrate the usefulness to society of WCRP-enabled predictions & projections • Coordinate & implement activities to exploit fully - new & increasing data streams (environmental satellites & in situ observations i.e. the Argo system) - growth in capability & availability of computing - increasing complexity & breadth of models - increasing data assimilation ability

5. WOCE 1990-2002 TOGA 1985-1994 GEWEX 1988  SOLAS 2001 -> SPARC 1992 WGNE WGCMWGSFIPABWGSAT CLIVAR 1995  ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000 CliC 2000

6. WCRP Domains • Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment • Climate and Cryosphere • Climate Variability and Predictability • Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate SPARC Where does integration take place? GEWEX CLIVAR CliC GEWEX CliC CLIVAR SPARC

7. COPES Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System AIM • To facilitate prediction of the climate/earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practicalapplications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society Goals • Determine what aspects of the climate/earth system are and are not predictable, at weekly, seasonal, interannual and decadal through to century time-scales • Utilise improving observing systems, data assimilation techniques and models of the climate/earth system (-> IGBP, GCOS, NWP centres, …)

8. Priorities for the next decade(agreed at WCRP-Conference, Geneva, 1997) • Assessing the nature and predictability of seasonal to interdecadal climate variations at global and regional scales • Providing the scientific basis for operational predictions • Detecting climate change and attributing causes • Projecting the magnitude and rate of human-induced change (as input for IPCC, UNFCCC, ...)

9. 2005: after 25 years of WCRP New overarching and integrating Strategic Framework Prediction of entire climate system (→ Earth System) FGGE → extended weather prediction TOGA → seasonal prediction (tropics)THORPEX → deterministic 2nd week prediction esp high impact weather, GWE COPES → climate system prediction

10. Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System COPES(2005-2015) COPES SPARC GEWEX CLIVAR CliC Project Contributions: • observing system components • process understanding • model components • interaction with global system • (impact and response) • assimilation & reanalysis • prediction & scenarios • contribution to specific themes

11. Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System(2005-2015) COPES TF-4 SPARC TF-3 GEWEX CLIVAR CliC TF-COPES TF-2 TF-SP TF-1

12. WOCE 1990-2002 WGObsAssim Model- lingPanel TOGA 1985-1994 GEWEX 1988  SOLAS 2001 -> SPARC 1 992 WGNE WGCMWGSFIPAB CLIVAR 1995  CliC 2000 TFSP,TF-COPES Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System

13. EXAMPLES of specific objectives • Regional climate change • Systematic errors in AGCM and CGCM • Arid and desert climates • Predictability of monsoons • Contribution to IPCC WG1 report • Improving projection of mean sea level rise • Production of climate data sets • Chemistry – climate models -> ES models

14. WCRP – COPES: Status • Task Force formed to define and initiate a process to plan & implement COPES: report to JSC26 in 2005 • COPES discussion document available to WCRP stakeholders for comments, including suggestions for Specific Objectives Reports to JSC • Co-chairs: B.Hoskins, J.Church • Representatives of core projects • Chairs of modeling and obs. panels • Experts in op. prediction, satellite obs., and funding of large programmes • Will propose organisation and initial objectives of COPES

15. Modelling Panel • Coordinate modelling across WCRP • Focus on climate system prediction • Liaise with WGOA (assim., initial., reanalysis, data gaps) • Oversee data management in modelling activities • Liaise with IGBP and IHDP • Chair: J.Shukla • GEWEX member: J.Polcher

16. WG on Observation and Assimilation • Coordinates synthesis of global obs. through analysis, reanalysis, assimilation across WCRP • Facilitates interaction with WMO, IOC, GCOS, GOOS, etc. wrt to optimization of observing systems • Coordinates information and data management across WCRP • Takes over tasks of WG on satellite matters • Chair: K.Trenberth • Secretariat: G.Sommeria • Members: J.Shukla, J.Key, W.Rossow, B.Randel, A.Lorenc, A.Simmons, G.Duchossois, M.Manton, E.Harrison, CLIVAR ? • Space agencies? Other experts?

17. Proposal for development of global climate products (for WGOA) Systematic re-processing and coordinated re-analysis of all available observations acquired from various satellite sensors and other data sources since several decades • Would be complementary to model re-analyses in order to define “present climate” • Would serve as a benchmark to validate climate models and thus improve our ability to forecast climate evolution at all time scales • Would contribute to the development of a coordinated global observation strategy

18. Task Force on Seasonal Prediction • Determine extent to which seasonal prediction of global/regional climate is possible with current models and observations • Identify the current limitations of the climate system model and observational data sets used to determine seasonal predictability • Develop a coordinated plan for pan-WCRP climate system retrospective seasonal forecasting experiments • Reported to the JSC in March 2004, the next report in March 2005

19. Free Running Model PDF Initial Condition (t=0) PDF t=limit of Predictability? Hypothesis • There is currently untapped seasonal predictability due to interactions (and memory) among all the elements of the climate system (Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere) Condition: Seasonal Predictability Needs to be Assessed with Respect to a Changing Climate • Use IPCC Class Models

20. Contributions of WCRP Projects • GEWEX: • provides guidance on how to initialize land surface • proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments: understanding land-surface feedbacks • CliC: • provides guidance on how to initialize cryosphere • proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments • CLIVAR: • provides guidance on how to initialize ocean-atmosphere • proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments: understanding atmosphere-ocean coupling and variability • SPARC: • provides guidance on how to prescribe atmospheric composition • provides guidance on how to initialize the stratosphere • proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments

21. Ice sheets, cryo Veg. C cycle Hydrology • Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) • Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARMIP) • Asian-Australian Monsoon Atmospheric GCM Intercomparison Project • Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) • Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom) • Carbon-Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP) • Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C) • Cloud Model Feedback Intercomparison Project • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) • Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) • Dynamics of North Atlantic Models (DYNAMO) • Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) • Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) • ENSO Intercomparison Project (ENSIP) • GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS) • GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) • GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS) • Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) • Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP) • Models and Measurements II (MMII): Stratospheric Transport • Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP) • Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) • Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) • Project for Intercomparison of Landsurface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) • Potsdam DGVM Intercomparison Project • Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison Project • Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS) • Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for Asia (RMIP) • Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) • Snow Models Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP ) • Stretched Grid Model Intercomparison Project (SGMIP) • Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models (STOIC) • WCRP F11 Intercomparison • WCRP Radon Intercomparison • WCRP Scavenging Tracer Intercomparison • Ice sheet Model Intercomparison Project • Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) • Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2 (SMIP-2) and Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2/Historical Forecast (SMIP-2/HFP)

22. Proposed ESSP Modelling Strategy • Experimentation with current GCMs for • hindcasts and projections (IPCC), • assimilation and prediction of the coupled system on seasonal to decadal time-scales • Improvement and validation of current GCMs used in 1 • GCM components of the carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation, tropospheric chemistry, and a range of biogeochemical cycles • Extending GCMs to include these additional components of the Earth System in turn, as a basis for 1 WCRP WCRP IGBP WCRP/ IGBP cryosphere, CliC

23. Proposed ESSP Modelling Strategy • Development of more holistic models (including EMICs) to • study the interactive aspects of the natural system • simulate longer time-scales, e.g. Ice Age Cycle • compare and validate with GCMs where possible • Development of models of the interaction between the human and natural systems based on the more holistic models • Simple models for design of the diagnosis of complex coupled models IGBP IGBP/ IHDP/ DIVERSITAS ALL

24. Time frame for COPES • COPES will use the 1979-2004-2009 period to develop reference climate data sets and advanced forecasting techniques. This period will be used for retrospective forecasts of weekly?, seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variations • The period 2010-2019 will serve as a testbed for real time forecasts • Need and use of special observing periods? • Defining and planning of COPES will continue and will be widely presented at the 2006 Global Change Conference which markes the WCRP’s 25th anniversary

25. Recent and future WCRP Conferences WOCE Final, San Antonio, 11-15 November 2002 ACSYS Final, St. Petersburg, 11-14 November 2003 CLIVAR 1st Science Conference, Baltimore, 21-25 June 2004 3rd SPARC General Assembly, Victoria, 1-6 August 2004 1st SOLAS Open Science Conference, 13-16 October 2004 CliC 1st Science Conference, Beijing, 11-15 April 2005 5th GEWEX Science Conference, Irvine, 20-24 June 2005 2nd Global Change Conference, Beijing, October (?) 2006

26. JPS for WCRP David Carson D/WCRP,ESSP V. SatyanD/modelling, WGNE, WGCM, START, MP Gilles Sommeria GEWEX, WGOA Valery Detemmerman CLIVAR Vladimir Ryabinin CliC, SPARC, fluxes Ann Salini Anne Chautard Margaret Lennon-Smith

32. THE TASK (simplified, after Kevin Trenberth) • Take a large almost round rotating sphere ~8,000 miles (~12,800 km) in diameter. • Surround it with a murky viscous atmosphere of many gases mixed with water vapour, aerosols, etc.. • Tilt its axis so that it wobbles back and forth with respect to the source of heat and light. • Freeze it at both ends and roast it in the middle. • Cover most of the surface with a flowing liquid that sometimes freezes and which feeds vapour into that atmosphere as it shifts up and down to the rhythmic pulling of the moon and the sun. • Condense and freeze some of the water vapour into clouds of imaginative shapes, sizes and composition. • Then try to predict the future conditions of that system for each place over the globe.

33. The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical and Human Components

34. Extended Range Weather Forecasts Operational Observing Systems Coupled Atm.-Ocean Models WOCE 1980 2000 1990 2010 Science Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting Regional Anomaly Prediction Anthropogenic Climate Change, Detection & Attribution Data Assimilation Techniques Atmosphere Ocean Coupled Tools Operational Prediction Systems Earth System Models Coupled phys.-biol.-chem. Models FGGE TOGA CLIVAR GEWEX core projects ACSYS CliC SPARC