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The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts. FUNDING SOURCES: Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Water Program. Stacey Archfield , Ph.D.

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  1. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts FUNDING SOURCES: Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Water Program Stacey Archfield, Ph.D. Research Hydrologist, USGS MA-RI Water Science Center Presentation to the New York Water Science Center December 9, 2009 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Richard Vogel, Tufts University Peter Steeves and Sara Brandt, USGS Stephen Garabedian and Peter Weiskel, USGS The Connecticut River looking north in the early evening, from the French King Bridge at the Erving-Gill town line in Western Massachusetts. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:IMG_3758_view_north_from_French_King_Bridge.jpg

  2. The importance of daily streamflow information Quantity of water available for withdrawal Unimpacted streamflow STREAMFLOW Instream-flow targets USER-SPECIFIED TIME PERIOD Photographs from: http://www.oceanriver.org/images/WestfieldRiverRussellMA_000.jpg; http://image.tutorvista.com/content/ecosystem/food-web-terrestrial-aquatic-ecosystem.jpeg, http://www.labsafety.com/Nalgene-Environmental-Sample-Bottles_24545938/, and http://jphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/ww2.jpg.

  3. Project objectives • Develop an easy-to-use, screening-level, decision-support tool to estimate continuous unregulated and regulated daily streamflow at ungaged locations in Massachusetts POINT-AND-CLICK GIS USER-INTERFACE COUPLED WITH COMMONLY-USED SPREADSHEET AND DATABASE SOFTWARE USER CAN TEST WATER-MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS BY ADJUSTING THE PERIOD OF ANALYSIS AND CHANGING INPUT DATA TECHNICALLY-DEFENSIBLE APPROACH REQUIRING FEW PARAMETERS

  4. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator Flow-duration curve Flow series from index gage State-wide water-use database STREAMFLOW EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY TIME Unregulated streamflow Regulated streamflow The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (Decision-support tool)

  5. Estimating unregulated daily streamflow Estimate basin characteristics Estimate flow-duration curve by solving the regression equations Estimate hydrograph ln(Q50) = a1 + b1 * (ln(Area)) STREAMFLOW STREAMFLOW TIME EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY Area = XX.X mi2 Solve regression equations that relate measurable basin characteristics to flow-duration-curve statistics Convert the estimated flow-duration to a time series of streamflow by use of an index gage Sources: Ries and Friesz (1999), Fennessey (1994), Hughes and Smakhtin (1994)

  6. Selection of an index gage using geostatistics Each point on the map is the Pearson’s r correlation between the natural logarithms of the streamflows at BURL and another gage. EXAMPLE By kriging the correlations, we obtain a correlation map for southern New England, which can be used to determine the correlation between any stream location and the BURL gage. R2 = 0.839 Natural log (Q AT HUBB) Natural log (Q AT BURL) Archfield, S.A. and Vogel, R.M., in review, The Map-Correlation Method, submitted to Water Resources Research

  7. Selection of an index-streamflow gage -- continued We can create a correlation map for each of the potential index gages in our study area. Now suppose we want to select the gage most correlated with our ungaged site. We can obtain kriged estimates of correlation between our ungaged site and each of the index-streamflow gages in the study area. Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the BURL gage = 0.845 Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the OLDS gage = 0.793 Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the GREC gage = 0.882 R2 = 0.882 R2 = 0.845 R2 = 0.793 We will use the GREC gage to transform the flow-duration curve to a time series of flows.

  8. Streamflow gages used in the analysis There are 66 gages identified as least-altered in southern New England. Most sites have no major water withdrawals, discharges or return flows in the basin and the predominant land cover is forest. The MA SYE tool estimates daily mean streamflows from October 1, 1960 through September 30, 2004. Best Worst Each site was jack-knifed to compare estimated and observed streamflows.

  9. Observed and estimated streamflow From Archfield and others (2009)

  10. Observed and estimated streamflow (best and worst) Hubbard River near West Hartland, CT (Best case) STREAMFLOW, IN CFS Burlington Brook near Burlington, CT (Worst case) STREAMFLOW, IN CFS

  11. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator Flow-duration curve Flow series from index gage State-wide water-use database STREAMFLOW EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY TIME Unregulated streamflow Regulated streamflow The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (Decision-support tool)

  12. Estimating regulated streamflow WELL 1 WWTP 1 Ungaged location WELL 2 Regulated streamflowt = Unregulated streamflowt – S (Surface-water withdrawalst) – S (Ground-water withdrawalst) + S (Ground-water dischargest) + S (Return flowst) • If aquifer properties are known, the user has the option to apply the program STRMDEPL, an analytical solution that is used to include the time-varying effects of a ground-water withdrawal or discharge on streamflow Source for STRMDEPL: Zarriello, P.J. and Barlow, P.M. (2000) and Jenkins, C.T. (1968)

  13. Limitations • Regulated streamflow estimates are limited by the availability and quality of the water-use data • Estimates of regulated streamflow do not include other factors that have an effect on streamflow: land-use change, surface-water reservoirs, storm-water returns, and septic discharge • Method requires coincident ground- and surface-water divides • Existing ground-water-flow models are used to compute streamflow at fixed stream locations where divides are not coincident From Archfield and others (2009)

  14. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator Flow-duration curve Flow series from index gage State-wide water-use database STREAMFLOW EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY TIME Unregulated streamflow Regulated streamflow The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (Decision-support tool)

  15. Point-and-click GIS user-interface Users also have the option to export a map and shapefile of the study area. Users begin by opening an ESRI ArcMap document and locating the stream of interest. The user clicks on the stream location to delineate an on-the-fly watershed, compute basin characteristics, and query the water-use database for points within the watershed.

  16. Navigating the tool All relevant data is stored in a user-specified location and project folder. A master Microsoft Excel file guides the user through the post-processing, graphing and reporting of the results.

  17. Scenario testing: Instream-flow targets, period of analysis %xx Estimated streamflows can also be compared to monthly instream-flow targets.

  18. Results Results are summarized for the user in a printable 2-page format.

  19. Application:Mapping streamflow alterationand water availability Weiskel, P.K., Brandt, S.L., DeSimone, L.A., Ostiguy, L.J., and Archfield, S.A., 2010, Indicators of streamflow alteration, habitat fragmentation, impervious cover, and water quality for Massachusetts stream basins, USGS Scientific Investigations Report, 2009-5272 Estimated annual flow alteration Estimated August flow alteration

  20. Application:Relating streamflow alterationto fish data Project contact for “Fish, Flow & Habitat”: Todd Richards, MDFW; Peter Weiskel, USGS Imperviousness Fish-sampling locations DRAFT < 15 % > 15 % Percent fluvial specialists Streamflow alteration Percent net flow alteration (August) for nested basins In cooperation with:

  21. Contact Information Peter Weiskel Massachusetts-Rhode Island WSC US Geological Survey pweiskel@usgs.gov (508) 490-5026 Stacey Archfield Massachusetts-Rhode Island WSC US Geological Survey sarch@usgs.gov (508) 490-5072

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