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African Economic Outlook 2003/2004. Outline. Background information Macroeconomic projections Poverty outlook Energy focus. Background Information. A joint project by ADB & OECD Development Centre Structure Overview Country Notes Statistical Annex Country coverage.
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African Economic Outlook 2003/2004
Outline • Background information • Macroeconomic projections • Poverty outlook • Energy focus
Background Information • A joint project by ADB & OECD Development Centre • Structure • Overview • Country Notes • Statistical Annex • Country coverage
The 2003/2004 outlook A modest recovery, due to both internal and external factors
Inflation is under control (with a few exceptions)Agregate CPI inflation (%)excluding hyper-inflation countries
Fiscal situation of many countriesis still weakFiscal balance as % of GDP, 2003 estimate
Poverty sub-Saharan Africa will miss the 2015 MDGs target by a large extent
Energy focus The energy sectors may play significant role in poverty alleviation and development: • Energy contributes to improving people’s lives • Energy contributes to the development of economic activities • Energy contributes to the efficiency of economic management
Energy focus However, the African energy sectors hardly play such a role; they are characterized by: • too heavy reliance on traditional energy sources (biomass), related to inadequate supply of modern energy • underutilization of potential sources of energy • mismanagement of resources that are utilized
World structure: Biomass 14% Electricity 16% Petroleum 44 % Structure of energy consumption in Africa (2001) Coal 7 % Gas 16%