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African Economic Outlook 2007

African Economic Outlook 2007. Measuring the Pulse of Africa. 8 December 2007 Africa EU Summit. Louis Kasekende Chief Economist , African Development Bank Javier Santiso Chief Development Economist , OECD Development Centre. T he African Economic Outlook Project. 1. 2.

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African Economic Outlook 2007

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  1. African Economic Outlook 2007 Measuring the Pulse of Africa 8 December 2007 Africa EU Summit Louis Kasekende ChiefEconomist, African Development Bank Javier Santiso ChiefDevelopmentEconomist, OECD Development Centre

  2. The African Economic Outlook Project 1 2 Africa’s Economic Performance 06/07: Multifaceted Growth 3 Measuring The Pulse of Africa

  3. UNECA Africa, EU, OECD: a unique partnership AEO Lead partner Junior partners Consultants, think tanks … Experts Network Main Financial Partner

  4. An innovative product AEO • Comprehensive, independent analysis • Short-termmacroeconomicforecasts • Special annual focus • 2003: Privatization • 2004: Energy • 2005: SMEs • 2006: Transport • 2007: Water and sanitation • 2008: Technical & vocational training • Overview & annual thematic focus • Comparable country chapters • Statistical annex and indicators

  5. Tunisia Morocco Algeria Libya Egypt Mauritania Niger Mali Senegal Chad Sudan Eritrea Gambia Guinea-Bissau Burkina Faso Djibouti Guinea Nigeria Ethiopia SierraLeone Côte d'Ivoire Togo Central African Republic Ghana Liberia Cameroon Somalia Equatorial Guinea Uganda Congo Gabon Kenya Rwanda Dem.Rep. Congo Burundi Tanzania Angola Malawi Zambia Mozambique Zimbabwe Madagascar Namibia Botswana Swaziland Lesotho South Africa Coverage 2007: 31 African countries AEO New in 2008: Cape Verde Liberia Libya Equatorial Guinea Cape verde Benin Sao Tome et principe 91% of GDP 86% of population AEO 2007 Comores Mauritius

  6. The African Economic Outlook Project 1 2 Africa’s Economic Performance 06/07: Multifaceted Growth 3 Measuring The Pulse of Africa

  7. Africa continues steady growth Growth In 2006, real GDP growth exceeded 5% for the third consecutive year Africa Growth is becoming more broad-based: • 23 countries achieved GDP growth rate of above 5 % in 2006 • 15 countries achieved GDP growth rate between 3% to 5% in 2006 Total OECD Source: AfDB/OECD

  8. The commodity boom: a key role Growth Global commodity prices 2001-2007 Source: World Bank

  9. Vibrant and Stable in oil-producing countries Growth 26.9 % Source: AfDB/OECD Source: AfDB/OECD

  10. Gainingmomentum in oil-importing countries Growth Source: AfDB/OECD (%)

  11. The rewards of economic reform Growth Africa: inflation and fiscal balance (2000-2006) • Public finance management is generally good and improving • Greater macroeconomic stability attained : • Fiscal balance is positive • Inflation is stable Source: AfDB

  12. Improved economic management Growth Source: AfDB

  13. Fewerbullets, more ballots Governance Presidential elections in 2006 Benin Cape Verde* Chad DRC* Gambia Madagascar Sao Tome et Principe* Seychelles Zambia* Uganda *Parliamentary elections also *Weighted sum of events

  14. MDGs: slow progressdespitegrowth Governance

  15. Over the « hump » of debt relief Aid Source: OECD

  16. Aid ODA & debt relief have helped stimulate growth … but aid is still falling short of Gleneagles commitments of doubling assistance to Africa by 2010 … there is little new aid beyond debt relief and humanitarian aid

  17. Oil exporter & importers: divergent paths? Outlook Fiscal Balance Growth Oil and Mineral exporters Challenges: • Capitalise on windfall gains • Maximise spillover to rest of the economy • Avoid Dutch Disease Oil importers Challenges: • Contain inflationary pressure • Finance widening trade deficit • Streamline spending to prioritise poverty reduction Trade Balance Inflation Source: AfDB/OECD

  18. The African Economic Outlook Project 1 2 Africa’s Economic Performance 06/07: Multifaceted Growth 3 Measuring The Pulse of Africa

  19. An African / Europeanpartnership AEO • A Maturing Relationship • An EU/OECD initiative with the African Development Bank • Combining OECD approach (best practice, peer review) and AfDB regional expertise • 2008: AfDB takes over as lead partner • A tool for business, finance & policy actors • Expanding country coverage • Improved modelling, forecasts & indicators • Feeding into the policy-making process • Supporting operational activities • Increased co-operation with local institutions

  20. Comparative, up-to-date and forward-looking tool • Monitoring progress towards MDGs of African countries: 31 countries in 2007 and 35 in 2008! • Sound Statistical analysis and data computation • Original indicators (political troubles, diversification) and macro forecasts • New background research:Working papers on political indicators, privatisation, etc. Analysing crucial themes for Africa development • Previous years: privatisation, energy, SME financing, transport, water • AEO 2008: “Technical Skills Development in Africa” • Deeply rooted in African realities • Network of local experts, constant dialogue with stakeholders • Quality peer review involving AfDB country and sector economists An indispensable tool AEO

  21. A strong African voice in policy dialogue AEO • Promoting public debate on economic policies • At national level (African policy makers) • At regional and continental level (input for African Peer Review Mechanism) • Building indicators tracking main APRM areas of focus • Promoting best practice and lessons learned through experience • Supporting the International Dialogue on Africa’s Development • Monitoring capacity-building in infrastructure, trade, institutions • Monitoring policy reforms, financial flows for development • Millennium Development Goals • Monitoring progress in 31 countries in 2007, 35 in 2008 • AEO, a joint AfDB/OECD/UNECA contribution to Goal 8

  22. Net Progression in Media Impact AEO Citations in mainstream media Source: OECD

  23. Practical involvement in policy outcomes AEO The AEO contributes to the issues debated at today’s EU-Africa Summit • Water • Inefficiencies not in resources, but in management • Transport Infrastructure • Reverse neglect through strategic PPP projects drawing on exterior funding • Energy • Coordination of regional energy investment structures • SME financing • Facilitation of SME-business friendly environments

  24. Questions for the Summit AEO • How can the African Economic Outlook help develop African economies? • How can the AEO contribute to reinforce the co-operation between Africa and Europe? • How can African input more effectively into the AEO process?

  25. Thank you Obrigado More information: www.oecd.org/dev/aeo

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