One Billion High Emitters: A New Approach for Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions

Background • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • “Common but differentiated responsibilities” • Two-tier world: Annex I (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I (rest of the world)‏ • Kyoto Protocol builds on this • Ignores emission inequality within nations • Guiding principle: agreement between sovereign states

What is a fair distribution of emission allowances among countries? • Based on a negotiated outcome? (Kyoto)‏ • Based on cumulative historical contribution to climate change? • Or perhaps on future contribution to the climate problem? • Based on the reduction potentials (geography, climate)? • Based on national per capita greenhouse gas emissions? (Contraction and convergence)‏ • Based on the emissions of the individuals in a country?

What this paper does (and does not do)‏ It does: • Treat two individuals with the same emissions equally, regardless of their nationality • Provide a simple but flexible ordering principle on which to base emission allocation to countries: both developed and developing It does not: • Prescribe specific policy options • Does not include land use emissions and non-CO2 gases

Per-capita energy related CO2 emissions (2005)‏ Source: IEA WEO 2007

Per-capita energy related CO2 emissions (2030)‏ Source: IEA WEO 2007

National responsibilities based on individual emissions • Focus on the CO2 emissions of individual • Treat every individual the same, no matter in which country they live • Calculate the individual emissions cap: an appropriate emission allowance of any individual in the world • Find the nation’s cap: Add up the individual allowances for each citizen in a country

Individuals ranked by annual emissions

Determine the globally applicable individual emissions cap Individual Emissions Cap

Some people exceed the individual emissions cap Individual Emissions Cap

+ = Individual Emissions Cap + + + + + = Add the capped emissions of the citizens to determine the national target Required Reductions National Emissions Target

Use income distribution data to arrive at individual carbon distributions Apply Country CO2 intensity

Rank all people in the world, highest to lowest emission-wise 75% 50%

Total emissions: 43 GtCO2 Choose a global target: 30 GtCO2 in 2030

Reduction: 13 GtCO2 Target 30 GtCO2 Choose a global target: 30 GtCO2 in 2030 = 10.8 tCO2/person/yr

Other global targets? 2003: 26 GtCO2 2030: 43 GtCO2 13 Gt 30 Gt 2030

China Rest of world Rest of OECD U.S. Regional emissions in 2030 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 t individual cap 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 individual cap For a 30 GtCO2 global cap in 2030, similar population on which targets are based for four groupings

Regional targets change with different global targets in 2030

Headroom for the poor? • Most allocation schemes introduce fairness through a per capita emission convergence component • This allocation scheme introduces fairness through treating every individual the same • However, is it fair if the very poor remain very poor? • Allow the 2.7 billion people at < 1 tCO2/yr to grow • What does 1 tCO2/person/yr mean • 800 kWh coal-fired power; 65km of driving; 14 kg LPG/month • X 2 for indirect emissions

Individual cap: without floor: 10.8 t CO2 with floor: 9.6 t CO2 Combine global-emissions cap and individual-emissions floor “30P” in 2030: 30 GtCO2 global emissions cap plus 1 tCO2 floor on individual emissions 1

Regional targets, with the 1tCO2 floor, for different global targets

Conclusion • It is possible to arrive at national caps based on income-based individual emissions • Only an allocation mechanism: flexibility on policy instrument • Global cap of 30 GtCO2 in 2030 results in about 1 billion people having to reduce emissions • The need of the poorest 2.7 billion people to emit more can be accommodated (but also uncertainty whether the poor will be spared)‏

What’s missing and how do we incorporate it ? • CO2 from land use and non-CO2 gases • Historical emissions: lifetime emissions, link to demographic statistics • Strong levels of convergence • Account for factors other than carbon intensity, e.g. geographical circumstances, climate, population density

One Billion High Emitters: A New Approach for Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions