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Levels of Analysis

Levels of Analysis. Keeping Arguments Clear in International Politics. The Level-of-Analysis Problem. Levels of Analysis 1. Textbook Scheme. SYSTEM RELATIONS SOCIETY GOVERNMENT ROLE INDIVIDUAL. 2. Course Scheme. System Region Dyad State Bureaucratic Group Individual.

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Levels of Analysis

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  1. Levels of Analysis Keeping Arguments Clear in International Politics

  2. The Level-of-Analysis Problem • Levels of Analysis 1. Textbook Scheme SYSTEM RELATIONS SOCIETY GOVERNMENT ROLE INDIVIDUAL

  3. 2. Course Scheme System Region Dyad State Bureaucratic Group Individual

  4. WILLINGNESS OPPORTUNITY System Region Dyad State Bureaucratic Group Individual System Region Dyad State Bureaucratic Group Individual 3. Usefulness of Different Levels

  5. B. What’s So Important? • Problem: Testing Hypotheses at the Wrong Level of Analysis • Fallacy of Equivocation: Using the Same Word to Mean Two Different Things • “Balance of Power” – Does this mean all states are equal (system level), that two states are balanced with each other (dyad level), or that a leader is committed to preserving a balance of power (individual level)?

  6. b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War?

  7. b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War?

  8. b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War?

  9. b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War?

  10. b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War?

  11. b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War? • Answer: It depends on the level of analysis! • A system with more alliances is more war prone • A state in an alliance is less likely to fight a war

  12. 2. Applying Findings at One Level to Another • Aggregation: Building up from lower levels. Results may be unexpected! • Example: The “Democratic Peace” hypothesis • Democracies Don’t Fight Each Other • Autocracies are Less Likely to Fight Each Other Than Average • Democracies Do Seem to Fight Just as Often as Autocracies • Question: Is more democracy in the world a good thing if we want to avoid war?

  13. Democratic Peace Example Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2%

  14. Democratic Peace Example Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2%

  15. Democratic Peace Example Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2%

  16. Democratic Peace Example Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2%

  17. Democratic Peace Example Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2%

  18. Democratic Peace Example Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2%

  19. Democratic Peace Example Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2%

  20. Democratic Peace Example • Solution: Relationship is nonlinear – Adding democracies to a world of dictatorships increases war risk until critical point reached. After that point, more democracy means less war.

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