Series Lecture of Introduction to Sustainability/Survivability Science

1. 京都大學　グロバールCOEプログラム2009-2014 極端気象と適応社会の生存科学 Sustainability/Survivability Science for a Resilient Society Adaptable to Extreme Weather Condition 1 Series Lecture of Introduction to Sustainability/Survivability Science Adaption (2) Dr. Bin HE hebin@flood.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University, Japan

2. Contents

3. www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/csgr/events/.../agriculture

4. What can we do?

5. What is adaption?

6. Adaption

7. Characteristics of mitigation and adaption

9. Definition by IPCC 4th report • Adjustments made to ‘enhance resilience’ or ‘reduce vulnerability’ • Adaptation practices may be looked at from various perspectives: • Spatial scale • Climate stress / hazard • Baseline economic development level of the systems they are implemented in • Relating adaptation to adaptive capacity • Adaptive capacity represents potential rather than actual adaptation

10. Why is adaptation important? • Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and significant degree of anthropogenic climate change • Adaptation is necessary in the short and longer term to address impacts resulting from CC. • Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt. • Adaptation capacity is intimately connected to social and economic development but is unevenly distributed across and within societies.

11. Different level of adaptation International level IPCC, Global modelling etc. Climate change information, scenarios, legislation, monitoring National level Regional/local level Measures, planning, management, crossectorial approach Lars-Erik Liljelund @Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 2009-09-01

13. Regional/local level

14. Adaptation: Reactive, Anticipatory

15. Insurance • Insurance is an instrument for providing ‘risk-cover’ against the impacts of climate change and variability, specifically for extreme weather events. • Public-private partnerships • Disaster risk insurance • Specifically in case of extreme events • Insurance may be an instrument worth exploring

16. Adaptation tools • Simulation tools (hydrologic model, economic models) • Decision tools (cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis) • Integration tools and frameworks (Adaptation Policy Frameworks, National Action Plans for Adaptation) • Cross-cutting technology (geographical information systems, remote sensing)

17. Contents

18. Urban cities • Most urban centres in low-income nations with low levels of GHG emissions; not much to ‘mitigate’. • Strong synergies between mitigation & adaptation for prosperous cities but not for all urban centres. • Urban expansion needs to take into account mitigation – but for most urban centres in low-income nations, adaptation far more important. • Why are northern funded programmes in Africa and Asia emphasizing mitigation above adaptation? www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/SOW09_CC_cities.pdf, www.irfnet.ch/files-upload/knowledges/Are-cities-really-to-blame.pdf

19. Urban areas in low- & middle-income countries • More than a third of the world’s total population • A sixth of the world’s total population • Most of the growth in the world’s population • Most economic growth • 87% of total GDP in low and middle income nations now from industry and services • Successful economies need well-functioning urban centres • Urban and rural development can be hugely complementary • Urban areas as markets and service centres for agriculture and rural populations • Successful agriculture as a key stimulus to local urban development adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/101/adapt_e.php http://www.iccgov.org/files/ADAPTATION/DeBruin&DellinkActorReactversion_25_03_2009.pdf, life.com, yourrealestatetips.com

21. Urban areas and adaptation • Most cities have large populations at high risk from extreme weather • Common for 30-60% of the population to live in informal settlements • A high proportion on dangerous sites – floodplains, steep slopes • Drainage networks rarely cover more than half a city’s population • Climate change imposing new constraints, changing constraints and bringing uncertainty • Adaptation is impossible without • basic protective infrastructure & services for entire population (but very few urban areas have these) • special programmes to address those who are most vulnerable

22. Flood Control

24. Other measures

25. Underground space

26. Construction of flood diversion channels

27. Urban Water (Supply, Wastewater, Stormwater) KI www.mass.gov/dep/public/committee/1009pres

28. Contents

29. Climate is the most significant factor in determining plant growth and productivity

30. Issues in rural areas • Under large uncertainty and potentially large damages, how information about risk and cost define the private strategies of farmers regarding when to invest in adaptation? • Will a farmer adopt a more aggressive adaptation strategy if he or she perceives his risk to be higher than average? • What knowledge does the farmers have today? • Have they already started to adapt? www.hgu.gu.se/Small%20farmers%20adaptation%20climate%20change- Cape%20Town

31. Response and Adaptations Measures • Optimizing water use efficiency: • Drip irrigation in vegetable and fruit; • Fertigation system (irrigation and fertilizer) • Optimized use of fertilizers to minimize leaching and nitrous oxide emissions. • Evaluate varieties suitable for changing agro-climatic conditions (drought, heat stress, high salinity, disease-resistance, etc) • 4. Evaluation of crop production under protected culture

32. Optimizing energy mix by developing low-carbon and renewable energy

33. Solar radiation

34. Constructing a soil conservation structure, to prevent the topsoil erosion. Promote Sustainable Agricultural practices (soil conservation, integrated plant nutrient management , integrated pest management etc). fi.cnr.it sgp.undp.org uwsp.edu

35. Rice-fish systems • Are risk minimizing and suitable for resource-poor farmers, enabling them to cultivate fruit and vegetables on dikes and bunds and to raise small livestock (pigs and poultry) as is culturally and economically preferred. • Safeguard water, soil resources and agro biodiversity (of both rice and fish) and support a rich cultural diversity and associated management. http://www.cawd.zju.edu.cn/Detail.aspx?type=kycg&id=14 http://news.163.com/09/1105/11/5NBQCJ94000120GR.html http://www.cnlssww.com/News_View.asp?NewsID=2529 ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y4875e/y4875e06.pdf

36. Modify the environment to minimize heat stress (e.g. cooling, shading, etc) Livestock Lower stocking densities to minimise mortality. Provide better quality feed (additives and mineral supplements) Provide adequate water agnet.org coloradodisasterhelp.colostate.edu

37. Others • Adjustments in planting and harvesting dates • Planting of new crop varieties and species • Changes in farming practices – tillage, use of topography • Application of fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides • Use of irrigation – timing and dose • Use of farm equipment – tractors, harvesters, etc • Improved food storage systems • Herd management – splitting, switching, diversification • Transportation

38. Relation between Urban centres and rural development & adaptation • Urban dependence on rural resources and eco-system services (including protective services) • Many urban livelihoods depend on rural (producer and consumer) demand for goods and services • How vulnerable low-income urban populations are to higher food prices or disruptions in food supplies • How many (poor and non-poor) households have rural and urban components to their livelihoods, incomes and asset bases

39. Contents

40. Rapid information chithings.com clipartof.com

41. Flood Gate

42. A non-structural measure “flood hazard map” Flood hazard maps are a tool to show inundation risk areas, evacuation sites, etc. to residents in an easy-to-understand way based on inundation risk area maps produced by river administrators. The maps aim to help residents’ quick and safe evacuation. Tsunami hazard map of Suzaki City

44. Rainwater Harvesting • Concentrating, diverting, collecting, storing, and utilizing and managing runoff for productive use. • Contribute to recovery of agricultural production in dry area as well as provide water for sustainable development. brokencitylab.org

45. Plastic bag http://bee-eazybags.typepad.com/the_buzz/plastic_bag_bans/ icis.com feel-good-friday.blogspot.com

46. Save transportation (Paper, time, energy) http://www.google.co.jp/images

47. Turn off you TV, PC, etc. Each PC consume 60-250 wat/day If so, 83% CO2 can be saved http://www.google.co.jp/images

48. Use public transportations http://www.google.co.jp/images

49. Contents

50. 5. Concluding remarks • Action on adaptation is needed now • Focus on urban areas • Core of adaptation is local development including poverty reduction & good local governance • Effective adaptation for urban areas needs effective adaptation for rural areas • Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover against climate change and variability • Climate Change is a global science; adaption to CC, especially extreme weather events, are local, regional, national and global.