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Embodying Standards in a Textbook

Embodying Standards in a Textbook. Dr. Tim Walton Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis at CIA. Dr. Tim Walton. B.A. College of William and Mary, Ph.D. University of Virginia 1970 – 1976 US Navy 1982 – 2006 CIA Now at CIA’s Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis

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Embodying Standards in a Textbook

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  1. Embodying Standards in a Textbook Dr. Tim Walton Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis at CIA

  2. Dr. Tim Walton B.A. College of William and Mary, Ph.D. University of Virginia 1970 – 1976 US Navy 1982 – 2006 CIA Now at CIA’s Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis Also teaches for: • Mercyhurst College program in Washington DC • Johns Hopkins University • DNI’s Analysis 101

  3. Fundamentals of Intelligence Analysis • The first textbook on how to actually do intelligence analysis • Basic standards for what intelligence analysts need to know • Drawn from experience as a practitioner and an instructor

  4. Guiding Definition of Intelligence Analysis • Systematic collection and evaluation of data to improve decision making • So applies to national security, law enforcement, and business • Goes beyond emphasis on clandestine sources; value of open sources, as well

  5. Goals Based on Detailed Assessment of Successes and Failures • Standards for assessing data • Correct and useful context, overcoming stovepipes and mindsets • Ability to generate a range of plausible, possible outcomes

  6. Perspectives • Interagency (CIA, DIA, FBI, DEA, etc.) • Interdisciplinary (political, military, economic) • International (global examples) • Historical (examples going back 3000 years) • Practical (relevant, balance speed and rigor) • Web-friendly (associated website)

  7. So what are the standards for being an intelligence analyst? Balance Rigor Imagination

  8. Rigor: Importance of a Structured Approach:Frameworks, Checklists, Tools • Formulate a clear goal • Roadmap of how to proceed • Measure progress along the way • Identify gaps in data and logic • Educators’ perspective: Structured techniques easier to pass on through teaching than experience and intuition

  9. Frameworks • Organization analysis • Systems analysis • Network and link analysis • Nonlinear thinking (non-Western perspectives) • Red Team (adversary’s point of view) • Devil’s Advocacy (counter conventional wisdom)

  10. Checklists: Steps for Dealing with an Analytic Problem • Asking the Right Questions • Gathering, Organizing, and Assessing Data • Recognizing and Countering Mindsets and Biases • Conducting an Assumptions Check • Generating and Testing Hypotheses • Constructing a Sound Argument

  11. Tools • Intelligence Question Refinery • Collection Plan • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Matrix • Quadrant for Generating Scenarios

  12. Intelligence Question Refinery

  13. Collection Plan

  14. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

  15. Quadrant for Generating Scenarios

  16. Imagination: Complement Structured Approach with Creativity Creativity and imagination especially required when there is a shortage of data; ways to prompt more creative approaches: • Guidance for better brainstorming • Other specific techniques for generating new ideas and different perspectives • Visualization

  17. Creativity through Visualization • Puts a problem in a different form that prompts other perspectives and possible solutions • Summarize large amounts of data; capture key elements without oversimplifying • Move easily between overall picture and details • Easier to detect the context: patterns, relationships, trends • Communicate with those who are visually oriented (used to absorbing information from television, internet) • Detect gaps in analysis and collection

  18. Characteristics of Outstanding Graphics:Integrating Multiple, Related Factors • Napoleon’s army shrinks from 422,000 men to 10,000 over five months (June-November 1812) and 1,700 miles (out and back), with the temperature dropping during the return

  19. Value of a MatrixBesides communicating your information as it arises . . . You might make out a table or something in the way of columns, under which you might arrange, their magazines of forage, grain and the like, the different corps and regiments, the works, where thrown up, their connections, kind and extent, the officers commanding, with the numbers of guns . . . This table should comprehend in one view all that can be learned from deserters, spies, and persons who may come out from the enemy’s boundaries. General George Washington

  20. MatrixStoplight Indications for Warning of Attack

  21. MatrixStoplight Indications for Warning of Attack

  22. Timeline

  23. Flow Chart

  24. Force Field Diagram

  25. Decision Tree

  26. Link Analysis Chart

  27. Presentation • Pull it all together • Communicate effectively • Written, oral, graphic options • Create a permanent record

  28. What Does an Analyst Need to Know/Do? Things that can be passed on, more or less easily, through education and training • Knowledge of intelligence structures, products, processes, systems • Geography, culture (disciplines: political, economic, military, leadership, social, etc.) • Analytic techniques (critical thinking, frameworks/tools, analysis/synthesis, trends/patterns/relationships, multiple outcomes and explanations) • Computers, software • Online, offline research techniques

  29. What Does an Analyst Need to Know/Do? Things that are harder to communicate through education and training (need experience, models to follow) • Curiosity • Persistence • Objectivity, honesty • Flexibility • Focus: attention to detail, but still see big picture • Cooperation

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