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School of Systems and Enterprises Stevens Institute of Technology, USA

ES/ SDOE 678 Engineering of Agile Systems and Enterprises Fundamentals of Analysis, Synthesis, and Performance Session 10 – The Edge of Knowledge and Term Project Planning. School of Systems and Enterprises Stevens Institute of Technology, USA. FEEDBACK REVIEW Applying Agile Concepts.

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School of Systems and Enterprises Stevens Institute of Technology, USA

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  1. ES/SDOE 678Engineering of Agile Systems and EnterprisesFundamentals of Analysis, Synthesis, and PerformanceSession 10 – The Edge of Knowledge and Term Project Planning School of Systems and Enterprises Stevens Institute of Technology, USA

  2. FEEDBACK REVIEW • Applying Agile Concepts

  3. EXERCISE start thinking…later, in a short while 1) Read the Project Guideline Document 2) Start an MS Word document called:678D0-<LastnameFirstname>V1.doc (D0 signifies deliverable zero) 3) In this document: a) Outline section headings of your project report per guidelines you read b) Declare your project intention (same as or different than D1) c) Transfer this document to the instructor now (email or memory stick)

  4. SDOE 675 SDOE 678 SDOE 679 SDOE 683 SDOE 683 – Self Organizing Agile Systems and Enterprises: Architectural Patterns Enabling Self-Organizing Systems of Systems Common patterns converge here in a study of class 2 (reconfiguring) agile systems across a seemingly wide variety of interesting system types, characterized by aspects of complex adaptive systems expressed as self-organized systems of systems. Studies explore 4th generation warfare, swarm systems, systems of systems with willful components, resiliency and vulnerability in infrastructure networks, emergent behavior, interoperability, open-community systems, attractors and generating functions as behavior boundaries, evolutionary systems, and issues at the moving edge of agile system and enterprise knowledge. 679Architecting 678 Engineering 683Designing 675 Thinking

  5. Difference in Relationships System of Systems System of Subsystems Lessons from the Channel Tunnel. Allen Fairbairn, Systems Engineer and Manager – Channel Tunnel Project

  6. Analytical Reductionist Deterministic Behavior Controlled Environment Predictable within defined limits Critical Failure Modes Relational Holistic Emergent Behavior Dynamic Interactive Environment Essentially Unpredictable Degradable Failure Modes Difference in Relationships System of Subsystems System of Systems Lessons from the Channel Tunnel. Allen Fairbairn, Systems Engineer and Manager – Channel Tunnel Project

  7. 683 - Self Organizing Systems of Systems Sense-making…Looking for common patterns in… • Complex Adaptive Systems • Self Organizing Systems • Systems of Systems • Swarm Systems • Evolving Systems • ...and more Autonomous Agent Systems Open Community Systems Network Systems Willful Systems UPAN Systems HIT Systems Resilient Systems Robotic Systems

  8. Overarching Themes for Air Force S&TUnited States Air Force Chief Scientist (AF/ST), 15 May 2010, Report on Technology Horizons, A Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030, Volume 1, AF/ST-TR-10-01-PR.www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-100727-053.pdf • The strategic context and enduring realities identified in “Technology Horizons” lead to a set of 12 “Overarching Themes” to vector S&T in directions that can maximize capability superiority. • These shifts in research emphases should be applied judiciously to guide each research area. • 1. From … Platforms To … Capabilities • 2. From … Manned To … Remote-piloted • 3. From … Fixed To … Agile • 4. From … Control To … Autonomy • 5. From … Integrated To … Fractionated • 6. From … Preplanned To … Composable • 7. From … Single-domain To … Cross-domain • 8. From … Permissive To … Contested • 9. From … Sensor To … Information • 10. From … Operations To … Dissuasion/Deterrence • 11. From … Cyber defense To … Cyber resilience • 12. From … Long system life To … Faster refresh

  9. With SmartBird, Festo deciphers the flight of birds www.festo.com/cms/en_corp/11369.htm Inspired by the herring gull. SmartBird can start, fly, and land autonomously. Its wings not only beat up and down, but also twist at specific angles. File1.75 File1

  10. From MITOpen Course Ware: 16.410 and 16.412: Principles of Autonomy and Decision Making Prof Brian Williams, Prof Emilio Frazzoli and SertacKaraman September, 8th, 2010

  11. Drone-Ethics Briefing: What a Leading Robot Expert Told the CIA15 Dec 2011, Patrick Lin ,www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/12/drone-ethics-briefing-what-a-leading-robot-expert-told-the-cia/250060/ • “Accidents are entirely plausible and have happened elsewhere: In September 2011, an RQ-Shadow UAV crashed into a military cargo plane in Afghanistan, forcing an emergency landing. Last summer, test-flight operators of a MQ-8B Fire Scout helicopter UAV lost control of the drone for about half an hour, which traveled for over 20 miles towards restricted airspace over Washington DC. A few years ago in South Africa, a robotic cannon went haywire and killed 9 friendly soldiers and wounded 14 more. • “Errors and accidents happen all the time with our technologies, so it would be naïve to think that anything as complex as a robot would be immune to these problems. Further, a robot with a certain degree of autonomy may raise questions of who (or what) is responsible for harm caused by the robot, either accidental or intentional: could it be the robot itself, or its operator, or the programmer? Will manufacturers insist on a release of liability, like the EULA or end-user licensing agreements we agree to when we use software--or should we insist that those products should be thoroughly tested and proven safe? (Imagine if buying a car required signing a EULA that covers a car's mechanical or digital malfunctions.) jpg image

  12. File4.5 www.gatewing.com A Belgium Company ~$70,000 Dec2011

  13. File2.75 A Swiss Company 20Dec2011 – Swiss scientists at EPFL have taken drone planes called swinglets built by a start-up called senseFly and are programming them to flock like birds $10,600 28Oct2010 jpg image

  14. What Are We Doing? Repeat-Skip to 10:39 • Questions we seek answers for: • What makes SO-SoSes work (achieve, grow, behave properly, evolve, …)? • What recurring patterns are seen in various kinds of successful SO-SoSes • What are the metrics of SO-SoS success? • What are useful SO-SoSes to observe and analyze for clues? • What knowledge can be utilized now – where and how? • What information can be tested now – where and how? • What data can be experimented with now – where and how? • We are developing a “pattern language” for discourse – we can’t talk about concepts or think about them if we have no words for them, • nor assemble them into meaningful constructions if we don’t have a grammar.

  15. System Security is a Prime SO-SoS Learning Opportunity • Observed Asymmetric Advantages of the Artificial-System Adversary • Adversary leads with innovation and evolution • Adversary is a natural system, current security strategy is an artificial system • Adversary self-organizes as a dynamic system-of-systems Architecture: Multi-agent Loosely coupled Self organizing Systems-of-systems Behavior: Swarm intelligence Tight learning loops Fast evolution Dedicated intent Assumptions: All systems are prey. The goal of a “natural” SO-SoS is survival. Fundamental natural strategies for survival are innovation and evolution. Currently the artificial-system predator has superior “natural” strategies. Natural systems have evolved very successful survival patterns. Artificial-system predators have evolved very successful attack patterns. The best Test & Evaluation is confrontation with the intelligent adversary!

  16. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs(for systems that would live one more day) • Its not about Cyber Security …all systems are prey • Its about co-evolving self-organizingsystems of systems, each with first priority onsecuring and maintaining existence. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs (5) Discretionary: non-functional performance of existence (community impact) (4) Quality: functional performance of existence (3) Functionality: product of existence (reason for, purpose of) (2) Security: sustains existence (1) Energy: enables existence 2nd Order: As affordable 1st Order: Core necessity

  17. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs(for systems that would live one more day) • Its not about Cyber Security …all systems are prey • Its about co-evolving self-organizingsystems of systems, each with first priority onsecuring and maintaining existence. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Harmony (5) Discretionary: non-functional performance of existence (community impact) (4) Quality: functional performance of existence (3) Functionality: product of existence (reason for, purpose of) (2) Security: sustains existence (1) Energy: enables existence 2nd Order: As affordable Performance Functionality 1st Order: Core necessity Security Needs Energy Needs

  18. Reality • SO-SoS scares people - but SO-SoS are all around us - and the adversary thrives on it • SysEs, SecEs and Decision Makers don’t communicate • Only SysEs can enable next gen SecE: SO-SoS • We need a common language and vision = OBJECTIVE - for SysEs, SecEs, and Decision Makers • Patterns reflected from common understandings • - solve communication problem - solve scary problem - brings shared vision into focus • (Should you care to accept the mission….) • You can be in the vanguard of SO-SoS pattern discovery • - choose patterns useful to your work & knowledge dev. • - suggested pattern concepts can be provided - source reference material can be provided - collaboration will be provided

  19. Objective Met with Stories, Graphics, Metaphors, References Decision Maker Systems Engineer • common • language • concepts • comfort Security Engineer

  20. To Start: Mirror the Enemy • Agile system security, as a minimum, must mirror the agile characteristics exhibited by the system attack community: • [S] Self-organizing – with humans embedded in the loop, or with systemic mechanisms. • [A] Adapting to unpredictable situations – with reconfigurable, readily employed resources. • [R] Reactively resilient – able to continue, perhaps with reduced functionality, while recovering. • [E] Evolving in concert with a changing environment – driven by vigilant awareness and fitness evaluation. • [P] Proactively innovative – acting preemptively, perhaps unpredictably, to gain advantage. • [H] Harmonious with system purpose – aiding rather than degrading system and user productivity. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/Pap100226-AgileSecuritySelfOrganizingCoEvolution-ExtAbst.pdf

  21. Axiom*: SAREPH Minimum CombinationsMinimum = S & (A|E) & (R|P) & H Natural systems exhibit all six characteristics. Artificial self-organizing agile systems will have at least one combination that traces a path from S to H, for a minimum of four characteristics. Self Organization Adaptive Tactics S A Trace any/all paths from S to H S means the system dances at the pace set by situational reality. But by itself, if S provides no value (beat is right but dance is independent of situation), it is useless. If we have S and H, without value (benign result), it is still useless. A good example of S-A-R-H is exhibited by the New York subway control room. S w/o A doesn’t ensure things happen when they must/should. Evolving Strategy Reactive Resilience R E Proactive Innovative Harmonious Operation P H * subject to change

  22. When a room has a window with a view, it is a focal point: people are attracted to the window and want to look through it. The furniture in the room creates a second focal point: everyone is attracted toward the point the furniture aims them at (the center of the room or a TV). This makes people feel uncomfortable. They want to look out the window, and toward the other focus at the same time. Rearrange the furniture so its focal point becomes the window, and everyone is comfortable. That's a very simple example, and there are literally hundreds more in this book and its sequel. The book's main idea is much more powerful than that. It applies to almost every aspect of life, not just to architecture. When a situation makes us unhappy, it is usually because we have two conflicting goals, and we aren't balancing them properly. Alexander's idea is to identify those ``conflicting forces'', and then find a solution which brings them into harmony. [Leonard R Budney, Amazon Reviewer] (253 patterns) (read this one) This four-volume work is Christopher Alexander's magnum opus of architectural philosophy, and a book on which he has been working for over twenty years. The essence of that view is this: the universe is not made of "things," but of patterns, of complex, interactive geometries. Furthermore, this way of understanding the world can unlock marvelous secrets of nature, and perhaps even make possible a renaissance of human-scale design and technology. [Michael Mehaffy, Amazon Reviewer]

  23. Alexander’s Pattern FormFrom: Alexander, Christopher. 1977. A Pattern Language. New York: Oxford University Press. • First, there is a picture, which shows an archetypal example of that pattern. • Second, after the picture, each pattern has an introductory paragraph, which sets the context for the pattern by explaining how it helps to complete certain larger patterns. • Then there are three diamonds to mark the beginning of the problem. • After the diamonds there is a headline, in bold type. This headline gives the essence of the problem in one or two sentences. • After the headline comes the body of the problem. This is the longest section. It describes the empirical background of the pattern, the evidence for its validity, the range of different ways the pattern can be manifested in a building, and so on. • Then, again in bold type, like the headline, is the solution—the heart of the pattern—which describes the field of physical and social relationships which are required to solve the stated problem, in the stated context. This solution is always stated in the form of an instruction— so that you know exactly what you need to do, to build the pattern. • Then, after the solution, there is a diagram, which shows the solution in the form of a diagram, with labels to indicate its main components. • After the diagram, another three diamonds, to show that the main body of the pattern is finished. • And finally, after the diamonds there is a paragraph which ties the pattern to all those smaller patterns in the language, which are needed to complete the pattern, to embellish it, to fill it out. • There are two essential purposes behind this format. First, to present each pattern connected to other patterns, so that you grasp the collection of . . . patterns as a whole, as a language within which you can create an infinite variety of combinations. Second, to present the problem and solution of each pattern in such a way that you can judge it for yourself, and modify it, without losing the essence that is central to it.

  24. Our Pattern Form Name: Descriptive name for the pattern. Context: Situation that the pattern applies to. Problem: Description of the problem. Forces: Tradeoffs, value contradictions, constraints, key dynamics of tension & balance. Solution: Description of the solution. Graphic: A depiction of response dynamics. Examples: Referenced cases where the pattern is employed. Agility: Evidence of SAREPH characteristics that qualify the pattern as agile. References: Literature access to examples. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/Pap100317Cser-OnDiscoveryAndDisplayOfAgileSecurityPatterns.pdf

  25. Example of a pattern description synopsis. These descriptions are for path-finder patterns rather than well-known common-practice patterns, full understanding is either obtained from reading the referenced papers or from reading accompanying discussion pages. Note: the 4 rows for context-problem-forces-solution should be generic abstractions; the 2 rows for graphic panels and SAREPH agility should preferably ground the abstractions in a specific example. (not like this one: abstract everywhere) www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/Pap100317Cser-OnDiscoveryAndDisplayOfAgileSecurityPatterns.pdf Dove, Rick and Laura Shirey. On Discovery and Display of Agile Security Patterns. 2010. 8th Conference on Systems Engineering Research March 17-19, Hoboken, NJ. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/Pap100317Cser-OnDiscoveryAndDisplayOfAgileSecurityPatterns.pdf

  26. Dynamic Phalanx Defense Aggressive shield waxes and wanes measure-for-measure in real time • Example: Artificial immune system – detection, selection, cloning and retirement applied to mobile network intrusion detection and repulsion. See (Cheng et al. 2008, Edge et al. 2006). • Example: Botnet denial of service defense – Instantly recruit an unbounded network of computers to shield a server from being overwhelmed by botnets. See (Dixon et al. 2008, Mahimkar et al. 2007). • Example: Just-in-time drone swarms – Load disposable drones with modular sensor and weapon choices, and deploy quantities as needed. See SWARM, JITSA discussion in (Hambling 2006). • Example: Plants – Use volatile signaling compounds to fend off attack, activate neighbor plants to do the same, and call in predators. • See (Wilkinson, 2001). • Above are systemically self-organized – here are some human directed examples • NATO • Internet Storm Center • Fire department mutual aid • Incident response coalitions (Khurana 2009)

  27. circa 2010 Pattern: Horizontal Meme Transfer • Name: Horizontal Meme Transfer (adapting patterns from other domains) • Context: Systemic innovation and evolution. • Problem: A need for improved system survivability, either reactive, proactive, or both. • Forces: Evolution of innovation vs. evolution of robustness. • Solution: Find relevant patterns in other domains and adapt them to the perceived threats and opportunities of the system of interest. Massive shared generation of intrusion detectors for evolving resilient-network vigilance From: Pattern Qualifications and Examples of next Generation Agile System-Security Strategies. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/PatternQualificationsForAgileSecurity.pdf

  28. circa 2011 Pattern: Horizontal Gene/Meme Transfer Intrachromsomal genes Extrachromosomal genes Rules Packaging Transfer Entry Establishment Inheritance Available high varietycellular organisms Two modular gene pools Innovative adaptation and evolution Horizontal gene transfer speeds up innovative short-term adaptation and long-term evolution (Dove, Rick. 2011. Webinar: Toward a Systemic Will to Live –Patterns of Self-Organizing Agile Security. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/PatternQualificationsForAgileSecurity.pdf )

  29. Pattern: Horizontal Meme Transfer • Examples: • Horizontal gene transfer and evolution. (Woese 2000) & (Smets 2005). • Cross-domain user-behavior-channeling pattern catalog. (Lockton 2009, 2010) • Cross-domain dynamic-system process-pattern project. (Troncale 1978, 2006) • Universal patterns in human activity and insurgent events. (Bohorquez 2009). • Patterns in behavioral ecology and anti-predator behavior. (Blumstein 2010). • Tradeoff between robustness and fragility in evolving complex systems. • [S]elf organization controls the assembly process. • [A]daptation occurs in assemblies that meet needs. • [R]eactive resilience occurs with sufficient module mix to meet specific needs. • [E]volution occurs in module and protocol upgrades. • [P]roactive innovation occurs with speculative assemblies for unknown needs. • [H]armony is maintained with a Highly Optimized Tolerance (Carlson 2002) small module and protocol repertoire in the knot. • References: (see reference section, only URLs shown here. All accessed 1Jan2011)) • (Blumstein 2010) www.eeb.ucla.edu/Faculty/Blumstein/pdf%20reprints/Blumstein_2010_BE.pdf • (Bohorquez 2009) www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7275/full/nature08631.html • (Carlson and Doyle 2000) www.pnas.org/content/99/suppl.1/2538.full.pdf+html • (Lockton 2009) http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/bitstream/2438/3664/1/Lockton_SI_paper_disclaimer_added.pdf • (Lockton 2010) http://danlockton.com/dwi/Download_the_cards • (Smets 2005) www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n9/pdf/nrmicro1253.pdf • (Troncale 1978) www.allbookstores.com/author/International_Conference_On_Applied_General_Systems_Research_State_Uni.html • (Troncale 2006) http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/112635373/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0 • (Woese 2000) www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC26958/pdf/pq008392.pdf From: Pattern Qualifications and Examples of next Generation Agile System-Security Strategies. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/PatternQualificationsForAgileSecurity.pdf

  30. Pattern: Bow Tie Processor (assembler/generator/mediator) Millions of random infection detectors generated continuously by fixed rules and modules in the “knot” V1 Vn V: 123 Variable segments D: 27 Diverse segments J: 6 Joining segments ~106 VDJ+VJ possible antigen detectorshapes 123 Vs Dn D1 27 Ds Jn J1 increases to ~109 varieties with addition of random nucleotide connections between VDJ & VJjoinings 6 Js 1 random from each + random connect r Dr r Jr Vr Available high varietygenetic DNA input Evolve three fixed V-D-J gene-segment libraries Fixed-rule VDJ assembly with random interconnects Random high variety output with VDJ + VJ assemblies

  31. Pattern: Bow Tie Processor (assembler/generator/mediator) • Example: Immune system--Millions of random infection detectors are generated continuously by fixed rules and modules • Example: For immune system assembly process (Wikipedia 2010). For numbers (Li 2004). • Example: Bow tie architecture for detector generation and sense-making. (Dove 2010). • Example: Bow tie architecture for robust complex networks of many kinds. (Csete 2004). • Example: General bow tie architecture and flexible-standards generation. (Hartzog 2010). • [S]elf organization controls the assembly process. • [A]daptation occurs in assemblies that meet needs. • [R]eactive resilience occurs with sufficient module mix to meet specific needs. • [E]volution occurs in module and protocol upgrades. • [P]roactive innovation occurs with speculative assemblies for unknown needs. • [H]armony is maintained with a Highly Optimized Tolerance (Carlson 2002) small module and protocol repertoire in the knot. • References: (see reference section, only URLs shown here. All accessed 1Jan2011) • (Carlson 2002) http://gabriel.physics.ucsb.edu/~complex/pubs/hot2.pdf • (Csete 2004) http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.173.3019&rep=rep1&type=pdf • (Dove 2011) www.parshift.com/s/110411PatternsForSORNS.pdf • (Hartzog 2010) http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/how-different-is-your-bow-tie/2010/06/21 • (Li 2004) http://bloodjournal.hematologylibrary.org/cgi/reprint/103/12/4602.pdf • (Wikipedia 2011) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V(D)J_recombination From: Pattern Qualifications and Examples of next Generation Agile System-Security Strategies. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/PatternQualificationsForAgileSecurity.pdf

  32. V--D--J V--J Pattern: Drag-and-Drop Framework and ModulesExample: Adaptable Immune SystemBow-Tie Antigen-Detector Generator detector antibody B-Cell Y cell Modules Integrity Management randomnucleotides 27 D segments 6 J segments 123 V segments Module pools and mix evolution genetic evolution Module inventory condition ??repair mechanisms?? Detector assembly bone marrow and thymus Infrastructure evolution genetic evolution Active longchain longchain longchain shortchain shortchain shortchain Infrastructure Passive detector sequence n+1 detector sequence n detector sequence n+2 Use one each V-J Use one each V-D-J Add random nucleotides Combine two assemblies Assembly Rules From: Pattern Qualifications and Examples of next Generation Agile System-Security Strategies. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/PatternQualificationsForAgileSecurity.pdf

  33. Pattern: Proactive Anomaly Search Speculative generation and mutation of detectors recognizes new attacks like a biological immune system

  34. Pattern: Proactive Anomaly Search Dove, Rick, Patterns of Self-Organizing Agile Security for Resilient Network Situational Awareness and Sense-Making. 2011. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/PatternsForResilientNetworks.pdf

  35. Pattern: Hierarchical Sensemaking Four level feed forward/backward sense-making hierarchy modeled on visual cortex

  36. Pattern: Hierarchical Sensemaking Dove, Rick, Patterns of Self-Organizing Agile Security for Resilient Network Situational Awareness and Sense-Making. 2011. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/PatternsForResilientNetworks.pdf

  37. Previous Pattern References1/2 • Blumstein, Daniel T. 2010. Flush Early and Avoid the Rush: A General Rule of Antipredator Behavior? Behavioral Ecology, 21: 440-442, 26 March. • Bohorquez, Juan Camilo , Sean Gourley, Alexander R. Dixon, Michael Spagat and Neil F. Johnson. 2009. Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency. Nature, 462(7275), 17 December, pp 911-914. • Carlson, Jean and John Doyle. 2000. Highly Optimized Tolerance: Robustness and Design in Complex Systems, Physical Review Letters 84 (11): 2529–2532, 13 March. • Carlson, Jean and John Doyle. 2002. Complexity and Robustness. PNAS 99: 2538–2545, 19 February. • Csete, Marie and John Doyle. 2004. Bow Ties, Metabolism and Disease. TRENDS in Biotechnology 22(9), September. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.173.3019&rep=rep1&type=pdf • Csete, Marie and John Doyle. 2010. Bow Ties, Metabolism and Disease, TRENDS in Biotechnology 22(9), September 2004. www.cds.caltech.edu/~doyle/CmplxNets/Trends.pdf. • Dixon, Colin, Anderson, Thomas and Krishnamurthy, Arvind, Phalanx: Withstanding Multimillion-Node Botnets, NSDI'08: Proceedings of the 5th USENIX Symposium on Networked Systems Design and Implementation, April 2008. • Dove, Rick and Laura Shirey. 2010. On Discovery and Display of Agile Security Patterns. Conference on Systems Engineering Research, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, March 17-19. www.parshift.com/Files/PsiDocs/Pap100317Cser-OnDiscoveryAndDisplayOfAgileSecurityPatterns.pdf • Dove, Rick. 2011. Patterns of Self-Organizing Agile Security for Resilient Network Situational Awareness and Sensemaking. 8th International Conference on Information Technology: New Generations (ITNG), April 11-13, Las Vegas, NV. www.parshift.com/s/110411PatternsForSORNS.pdf • Edge, Kenneth S., Gary B. Lamont, and Richard A. Raines, Multi-Objective Mobile Network Anomaly Intrusion, International Journal of Computer Science and Network Security, 6(3b):187-192, March, 2006. • Forrest, S., S. Hofmeyr and A. Somayaji. 2008. The evolution of system-call monitoring. Proceedings of the 2008 Annual Computer Security Applications Conference, pp. 418-430. • George, Deleep. 2008. How the Brain Might Work: A Hierarchical and Temporal Model for Learning and Recognition, PhD thesis, Stanford University. www.numenta.com/htm-overview/education/DileepThesis.pdf • Hambling, Dave, Drone Swarm for Maximum Harm, Defense Tech. April 10, 2006. • Haack, Jereme N., Glenn A. Fink, Wendy M. Maiden, David McKinnon, and Errin W. Fulp. 2009. Mixed-Initiative Cyber Security: Putting Humans in the Right Loop. www.cs.wfu.edu/~fulp/Papers/mims09f.pdf • Hartzog, Paul. 2010. How Different is Your Bow Tie? Blog at P2P Foundation, 21 June 2010. http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/how-different-is-your-bow-tie/2010/06/21. • Hightower, R. , S. Forrest and A.S.Perelson. 1996. The Baldwin effect in the immune system: Learning by somatic hypermutation. In Adaptive Individuals in Evolving Populations, R. K. Belew and M. Mitchell, (eds.), Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, pp. 159-167. http://cs.unm.edu/~forrest/publications/baldwin.pdf

  38. Previous Pattern References2/2 • Hofmeyr , S. and S. Forrest. 2000. Architecture for an Artificial Immune System." Evolutionary Computation 7(1), Morgan-Kaufmann, San Francisco, CA, pp. 1289-1296. http://cs.unm.edu/~forrest/publications/hofmeyr_forrest.pdf • Khurana, Himanshu, Jim Basney, MehediBakht, Mike Freemon, Von Welch, Randy Butler. 2009. Palantir: A Framework for Collaborative Incident Response and Investigation. In Symposium on Identity and Trust on the Internet (IDTrust), Gaithersburg, MD, April 14-16. http://netfiles.uiuc.edu/hkhurana/www/IDTrust20091.pdf • Li, Aihong, et al. 2004. Utilization of Ig Heavy Chain Variable, Diversity, and Joining Gene Segments in Children with B-lineage Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: Implications for the Mechanisms of VDJ Recombination and for Pathogenesis. Blood, 103(12) 4602-4609, 15 June. • Lockton, Dan with Davis Harrison and Neville A. Stanton. 2010. Design With Intent - 101 Patterns for Influencing Behaviour Through Design. Equifine. April. Available at http://www.danlockton.com/dwi/Download_the_cards. • Lockton, Dan and David Harrison. 2009. Design for Sustainable Behaviour: Investigating Design Methods for Influencing User Behaviour. Sustainable Innovation 09: Towards a Low Carbon Innovation Revolution, 14th International Conference, Farnham Castle, UK, 26-27 October. • Mahimkar, A. , Dange, J., Shmatikov, V., Vin, H. and Zhang, Y., dFence: Transparent Network-Based Denial of Service Mitigation, in Proceedings of 4th USENIX Symposium on Networked Systems Design and Implementation (NSDI 2007), Cambridge, MA, April, 2007. • Serre, T., Learning a Dictionary of Shape-Components in Visual Cortex: Comparison with Neurons, Humans and Machines, Ph. D Dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June, 2006. http://cvcl.mit.edu/Papers/SerreOlivaPoggioPNAS07.pdf • Smets, Barth F. and Tamar Barkay. 2005. Horizontal gene transfer: perspectives at a crossroads of scientific disciplines. Nature Reviews Microbiology 3, 675-678 (September 2005). • Troncale, L. 1978. Linkage Propositions Between Fifty Principal Systems Concepts. in Applied General Systems Research: Recent Developments and Trends : N.A.T.O. Conference Series II, Systems Science, G. J. Klir, (Ed.), Plenum Press, pp 29-52. • Troncale, L. 2006. Towards A Science of Systems. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Special Journal Edition on J.G. Miller, Founding Editor (G.A. Swanson, Ed.) 23(3): 301-321. • Wilkinson, Sophie, Plants to Bugs: Buzz Off!, Chemical and Engineering News, June 30, 2001. • Woese, Carl. 2000. Interpreting the universal phylogenetic tree. PNAS. 97(15):8392-6. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC26958/pdf/pq008392.pdf • Zhang, C., Zhang, J., Liu, S., and Liu, Y., Network Intrusion Active Defense Model Based on Artificial Immune System. Fourth International Conference on Natural Computation, Jinan, China, October 18-20, 2008.

  39. On 4-Panel Graphics • The graphic depicts a classic specific example rather than a generic abstraction of key elements. This gives grounded substance to the generic concept. It may be some day that a generic abstracted graphic will be added, but it is doubtful that a specific-example graphic will be eliminated. Abstractions reduce information. • The graphic is a key element of the pattern form. It captures the essence of the concept in a visual (memorable) depiction in four time-series snap-shots. • The graphic depict the dynamics of situational response. Maybe: awareness, assessment, configure, respond. Maybe OODA: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. • Why four panels? • any more and the core essence is “likely” diffused or confused. • any more and it is less memorable. • any fewer and too much intellectual interpretation is “likely” needed. • any fewer and a sufficient communication is “likely” deficient. • What not to do: • Flow charts, SysML depictions, and other such “thinking is required” approaches.

  40. Core Patterns of Biological Systems(wip preliminary thinking, maybe a framework for a Pattern Language) autocatalysis (self-reproductive life itself) (Early pattern work exists for the green area, nothing yet for yellow) Many more eligible: Behavior Attractors Situational Awareness Fast Learning Loops Resilience Adaptation Effortful Learning Experimental Learning 4th Gen Warfare 5th Gen Warfare Disposable Resources SoS Intervention/Repurposing …Etc… horizontalmemetransfer geneticalgorithm modules and framework fractal architecturalreflection hierarchical sensemaking negativeselectionanomalydetection bow tie processor active infrastructure (will to live, ego, personality) This is a current conjecture, and subject to radical evolution

  41. The respected software pioneer and computer scientist, Richard Gabriel, gives us an informative inside look at the world of software design and computer programming and the business that surrounds them. Gabriel discusses such topics as what makes a successful programming language, how the rest of the world looks at and responds to the work of computer scientists, how he first became involved in computer programming and software development, what makes a successful software business, and why his own company, Lucid, failed in 1994, ten years old. Perhaps the most interesting and enlightening is Gabriel's detailed look at what can be learned from architect Christopher Alexander, whose books--including the seminal A Pattern Language--have had a profound influence on the computer programming community. Gabriel illuminates some of Alexander's key insights--"the quality without a name," pattern languages, habitability, piecemeal growth--and reveals how these influential architectural ideas apply equally well to the construction of a computer program. Gabriel explains the concept of habitability, for example, by comparing a program to a New England farmhouse and the surrounding structures which slowly grow and are modified according to the needs and desires of the people who live and work on the farm. "Programs live and grow, and their inhabitants--the programmers--need to work with that program the way the farmer works with the homestead.” From the Foreword by Christopher Alexander:"What was fascinating to me, indeed quite astonishing, was that in Gabriel's essays I found out that a computer scientist, not known to me, and whom I had never met, seemed to understand more about what I had done and was trying to do in my own field than my own colleagues who are architects." Free full-book download from the author’s website:http://dreamsongs.com/Files/PatternsOfSoftware.pdf

  42. Eventual Aspiration for our Language of PatternsFrom Richard P. Gabriel. 1996. The Quality Without A Name (essay), in Patterns of Software, Oxford Univ. Press, pp. 33-43. http://dreamsongs.com/Files/PatternsOfSoftware.pdf • Alexander: “I was no longer willing to start looking at any pattern unless it presented itself to me as having the capacity to connect up with some part of this quality [the quality without a name]. Unless a particular pattern actually was capable of generating the kind of life and spirit that we are now discussing, and that it had this quality itself, my tendency was to dismiss it, even though we explored many, many patterns. • “It is a subtle kind of freedom from inner contradictions.” • “…it became clear that the free functioning of the system did not purely depend on meeting a set of requirements. It had to do, rather, with the system coming to terms with itself and being in balance with the forces that were generated internal to the system, not in accordance with some arbitrary set of requirements we stated.” • A system has this quality when it is at peace with itself, when it has no internal contradictions, when it is not divided against itself, when it is true to its own inner forces. And these forces are separate from the requirements of the system as a whole. • Alexander proposes some words to describe the quality without a name, but even though he feels they point the reader in a direction that helps comprehension, these words ultimately confuse. The words are alive, whole, comfortable, free, exact, egoless, and eternal. I’ll go through all of them to try to explain the quality without a name. • [Read (Gabriel 1996: 33-43) for details, or (Alexander. 1979. The Timeless Way of Building. Oxford Univ. Press]

  43. What do sexually transmitted diseases, the World Wide Web, the electric power grid, Al Queda terrorists, and a cocktail party have in common? They are all networks. They conform to surprising mathematical laws which are only now becoming clear. Albert-Laszlo Barabasi has helped discover some of those laws over just the past five years, and though they are some pretty abstruse mathematics, he has written a clear and interesting guide to them. Not only has he attempted in this book to bring the math to non-mathematicians, he has shown why the work is important in down-to-earth applications. It is important for those multitudes who have no taste for math to know that this is not a book full of equations; Barabasi knows that for most of his readers, doing the math is not as important as getting a feel for what the math does. He explains the basic history of network theory, and then shows how his own work has turned it into a closer model of reality, a model that most of us will recognize. Networks are all around us, and they are simply not random. Some of our friends, for instance, are loners, while others seem to know everyone in town. Some websites, like Google and Amazon, we just cannot avoid clicking on or being referred to, but many others are obscure and you could only find them if someone sent you their addresses. Barabasi calls these "nodes" with such an extraordinary number of links "hubs," and he and his students have found laws of networks with hubs, showing such things as how they can continue to function if random nodes are eliminated but they fragment if the hubs are hit. Barabasi is currently doing research to show what intracellular proteins interact with other proteins, and true to form, some of them are hubs of reactions with lots of others. Finding the hubs of cancerous cells, for instance, and developing ways of taking them out, show enormous promise in the fight against cancer. And finding the hub terrorists in Al Queda in order to take them out would be the best way to eliminate the network. [Amazon reviewer Rob Hardy]

  44. There is a lot of good stuff in here. The descriptions of the patch procedure and simulated annealing, for instance, are very nice. This book can be useful to the motivated general reader, and to a scientist who wants to see the very basics of some novel ideas. It can also be useful for those familiar with complexity as an account of how different pieces fit together. • It's important to remember that the book is not a text in, say, biochemistry. Rather, it's about a way to see the world. At this stage of the idea development life cycle and in a basic treatment like this, it would be counterproductive to insist that these modeling tools reproduce everything we know or start at the level of complication of a mature science. If the book deals in toy examples that relate to a different view for pieces of the world and how they relate, it has done most of its job. • [Amazon reviewer]

  45. Order emerges from chaos - ready or not • Review By  C. W. Richards (Atlanta, GA United States) • Global guerrillas practice something Robb calls "open source warfare," which means that in the modern environment, people even on different continents can form or join groups, train, and carry out operations much more quickly than in the past or than the major legacy states can today. • As the groups learn from each other (and a sort of Darwinism selects out the unfit), a larger pattern forms, an "emergent intelligence," similar to a marauding colony of army ants, no one of which is very sophisticated, but operating together according to simple rules, they are survivable, adaptable, and in a suitable environment, invincible. • To construct this model, Robb employs a number of concepts that may be new to people unfamiliar with modern systems theory: close-coupled systems, self-organization, emergent properties (particularly "intelligence"), stigmergy, and the concept of complexity arising from simple processes. • He also introduces new tools for understanding how systems work in the modern world: open source insurgency, global virtual states, superempowerment, systempunkts, and "black swans." • Robb's general strategy is to improve resilience by any means possible. I could imagine, for example, that instead of building new power plants that, along with their distribution systems, are vulnerable to disruption, the government provides market incentives to improve resilience. The government could increase subsidies to utilities and require all of them to buy electricity from homeowners during the day and sell it at reduced rates at night. As more people add power generation capability to their houses - solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, whatever - resilience improves. This may not be the most efficient solution, but in the age of open source insurgency, too much efficiency can be dangerous.Robb makes a compelling case that this model will also work for national security. It is certainly working very well for the groups we are fighting. Publisher: Wiley (April 20, 2007)

  46. Through a very insightful book, Peter Miller turns to Nature to explain crowd behavior. Leveraging upon numerous scientific studies, Peter elaborates the principles through which even insects with low individual intelligence perform extraordinary feats of brilliance as a group. That too without hierarchy or elaborate rules! • Peter Miller calls this intelligent group behavior - the smart swarm. He then explains how the smart swarm works - using biology to unlock the secrets of collective behavior. The dangers of group behavior are also brought out through the examples of locusts - which is useful to understand how human groups also sometimes turn violent. • What are the principles of smart swarms? • The first principle of a smart swarm is self organization. Through the basic mechanisms of decentralized control, distributed problem solving and multiple interactions, members of a group without being told can transform simple rules of thumb into meaningful patterns of collective behavior. This is explained through the functioning of ant colonies - that is "Though Ant's aren't smart, why Ant colonies are?“ • The second principle of a smart swarm is 'diversity of knowledge' - which is basically achieved through a broad sampling of the swarm's options, followed by a friendly competition of ideas. Then using an effective mechanism to narrow down the choices, swarms can achieve 'wisdom of crowds'. The honeybees example of choosing a new nest illustrates this very clearly - and Peter shows how communities and businesses can build trust and make better decisions by adapting this. • The third principle is indirect collaboration. If individuals in a group are prompted to make small changes to a shared structure that inspires others to improve it even further, the structure becomes an active player in the creative process. This is explained beautifully with the example of how termites build huge structures. We also see this in our internet world through Wikis!!! • The fourth principle is adaptive mimicking. With the example of flight behavior of starlings, Peter shows how the basic mechanisms of coordination, communication and copying can unleash powerful waves of energy or awareness that race across a population evoking a feeling of mental telepathy. • [Amazon reviewer Sam Santhosh ] Publisher: Avery (August 5, 2010)

  47. Not an official text – but highly recommended “Well known in statistical circles, Bayes’s Theorem was first given in a posthumous paper by the English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne provides a fascinating account of the modern use of this result in matters as diverse as cryptography, assurance, the investigation of the connection between smoking and cancer, RAND, the identification of the author of certain papers in The Federalist, election forecasting and the search for a missing H-bomb. The general reader will enjoy her easy style and the way in which she has successfully illustrated the use of a result of prime importance in scientific work.”— Andrew I. Dale, author of A History of Inverse Probability From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and Most Honorable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes Copyright 2011

  48. Hawkins is a founder of two leading mobile computing companies—Palm Computing and Handspring—and also of the Redwood Neuroscience Institute, which explores memory and cognition, and now…Numenta, which is developing artificial cortex. • Systems Analysis: The Brain • A Pattern Memory and Prediction System • The brain constantly compares new sensory information with stored memories and experiences and combines the information to anticipate the future. In essence, as we wander around, we build a reserve of information from which we construct an internal model of the world. But we constantly update that model. • The continuous interplay of sensory input, memory, prediction and feedback—which occurs instantly through parallel processing in the neocortex—ultimately gives rise to consciousness and intelligence. • Hawkins proffers a "comprehensive theory of how the brain works," of "what intelligence is," and of "how your brain creates it." • This book provides some provocative thoughts on how the brain and the mind may actually function. • Richard Lipkin, Scientific American Not an official text – but highly recommended

  49. Photo: Ethan Hill Scientific American, Aug 2006 The Expert Mind Studies of the mental processes of chess grandmasters have revealed clues to how people become experts in other fields as well. Effortful study is the key to achieving success in chess, classical music, soccer and any field of expertise. Research indicates that motivation is a more important factor than innate ability. 200,000 patterns, 10,000 hours

  50. Masters Projects – SO-SoS Patterns – Class 2 Systems Craig Nichols 678 Project: Agile Integration Process Master’s Project: Self Org. Patterns INCOSE Paper: June 2011, Denver INSIGHT Essay: July 2011 SSTC Invited Presentation Jena Lugosky 678 Project: Boyd OODA/On Intelligence Master’s Project: Stigmergic Patterns INCOSE Paper: June 2011, Denver INSIGHT Essay: July 2011 Cognitive Research J. (invited, declined) • Steve Anderson: Agile Aircraft Integration for QRC Programs (IS13 Paper) • Barry Papke: Last Planner Applied to Aircraft Structural Modification (IS13 Paper) • Jason Boss: Agile Aircraft Installation for QRC Environment (IS10 Paper) • Art Brooks: On Adding a Fourth “Artificial” Simulation Environment Category to the Live-Virtual-Constructive Simulation Environments (ITEA Paper) • Billy Crews: The Agile Contractor • Kim Elliott: Real-Time Open Semantic Interoperability: A Network Centric Warfare Key Enabler • John Goodman: Planning for unplanned work • Tom Hadden: On Detecting Aberrant Behavior in Unmanned Autonomous Systems Using Peer Trajectory Monitoring Techniques • David Schaab: Agile Development of Requirements and Capability Maturity Model • Randy Wolf: Applying CMMI-DEV to Department of Defense Quick Reaction Capability Projects www.parshift.com/s/110620AdversarialStigmergyPatterns.pdf www.parshift.com/s/110701AdversarialStigmergyPatterns-Essay.pdf www.parshift.com/s/110620ArchitecturalPatternsForSOSoS.pdf www.parshift.com/s/110701ArchitecturalPatternsForSOSoS-Essay.pdf Masters Projects – Class 1 Systems

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