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Analysis of Australian Government Securities Market Trends

This report highlights trends in Australian government securities market from October 2002, covering debt types, turnover, yield curves, and financial assets. It includes various charts sourced from official reports and financial institutions.

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Analysis of Australian Government Securities Market Trends

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  1. Chart Pack Review of the Commonwealth Government Securities market Discussion Paper, October 2002

  2. Chart 1: Commonwealth general government net debt Source: Commonwealth of Australia Budget Strategy and Outlook 2002-03, Budget Paper No. 1; Commonwealth of Australia Final Budget Outcome 2001-02; and Australian Office of Financial Management, 2002.

  3. Chart 2: Fixed coupon bonds outstanding by issuer type (June 2002) Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, 2002 (unpublished).

  4. Chart 3: Benchmark Treasury Fixed Coupon Bonds outstanding (June 2002) Source: Australian Office of Financial Management, 2002.

  5. Chart 4: Treasury Indexed Bonds outstanding (June 2002) Source: Australian Office of Financial Management, 2002.

  6. Chart 5: Net short-term assets and Treasury Notes outstanding in 2001 Source: Australian Office of Financial Management, 2002 (unpublished).

  7. Chart 6: State and Territory bonds outstanding (June 2002) Source: Salomon Smith Barney (2002) AusBIG Profile Report, August 2002, Australia.

  8. Chart 7: Corporate bonds outstanding by issuer Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, 2002 (unpublished).

  9. Chart 8: Maturity profile of corporate fixed coupon bonds outstanding (June 2002) Source: Salomon Smith Barney (2002) AusBIG Profile Report, August 2002, Australia.

  10. Chart 9: History of outstanding bonds Note:  The figures for the Commonwealth include indexed bonds and exclude the Commonwealth's own holdings. Corporate estimates include floating-rate bonds but exclude asset-back securities. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, 2002.

  11. Chart 10: Turnover in Australian fixed coupon debt markets Source: Australian Financial Markets Association (2001) Australian Financial Market Report, AFMA‑SIRCA, Australia.

  12. Chart 11: Turnover of Treasury bonds and Treasury bond futures contracts Source: Australian Financial Markets Association (2001) Australian Financial Market Report, AFMA‑SIRCA, Australia.

  13. Chart 12: Turnover of Treasury bonds and interest rate swaps Source: Australian Financial Markets Association (2001) Australian Financial Market Report, AFMA‑SIRCA, Australia.

  14. Chart 13: Turnover in the repurchase market by instrument Source: Australian Financial Markets Association (2001) Australian Financial Market Report, AFMA‑SIRCA, Australia.

  15. Chart 14: Commonwealth Government Securities yield curve (June 2002) Source: Bloomberg, 2002.

  16. Chart 15: Outstandings and turnover in the Australian corporate debt market Note:  Includes floating rate bonds but excludes asset-back securities. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia (2002) Bulletin Statistical Tables; Australian Financial Markets Association (2001) Australian Financial Market Report, AFMA‑SIRCA, Australia.

  17. Chart 16: The interest rate swap curve (June 2002) Source: Bloomberg, 2002.

  18. Chart 17: Spread of corporate bonds to Treasury bonds Note: Bonds with three years to maturity. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia (2002) Bulletin Statistical Tables.

  19. Chart 18: US corporate-government bond spread and Dow Jones Index Note: Credit spread = ten-year BAA minus ten-year US Treasuries. Source: Datastream, 2002.

  20. Chart 19: Australia’s current account balance Source: Australian Bureau Statistics (2002) Australian System of National Accounts, Cat. No. 5204, AusStats Time Series Spreadsheets, ABS, Canberra.

  21. Chart 20: CGS outstanding if retired at maturity and no further issuance Note: Refers to Treasury bonds outstanding. Source: Australian Office of Financial Management and Treasury projections, 2002 (unpublished).

  22. Chart 21: Growing the CGS market in line with nominal growth in GDP Note: Refers to Treasury bonds outstanding. Source: Australian Office of Financial Management and Treasury projections, 2002 (unpublished).

  23. Chart 22: Growing the CGS market in line with growth in financial assets Note: Refers to Treasury bonds outstanding. Source: Australian Office of Financial Management and Treasury projections, 2002 (unpublished).

  24. Chart 23: Australia’s financial asset market size (June 2002) Note: Investment grade bonds refer to debt securities with a credit rating of BBB or higher. Source: Salomon Smith Barney (2002) AusBIG Profile Report, August 2002, Australia; and Bloomberg, 2002.

  25. Chart 24: Size of Government investment possible with investment limits Source: Salomon Smith Barney (2002) AusBIG Profile Report, August 2002, Australia; and Bloomberg, 2002.

  26. Chart 36: Singapore Government securities on issue Source: CEIC Asia Database, 2002.

  27. Chart 37: Hong Kong Government securities on issue Source: CEIC Asia Database, 2002.

  28. Chart 38: US government, corporate and agency securities on issue Note: Government debt refers to government debt held by the public. Source: The Bond Market Association, 2002; OECD (2002) Economic Outlook, No. 71, OECD, Paris.

  29. Chart 39: Korean government and corporate securities on issue Note: Total Government bonds comprise of Treasury Bonds, Foreign Exchange Stabilisation Bonds, National Housing Bonds and Grain Securities. Source: Korea National Statistics Office, 2002.

  30. Chart 40: New Zealand Government asset portfolios: 2002 to 2006 Note: A number of other substantial asset portfolios are held by the Government, including assets held by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the New Zealand Debt Management Office. Source: New Zealand Treasury, (2002) Budget Economic and Fiscal Update.

  31. Chart 41: Accumulated assets in Norway’s Government Petroleum Fund Note: Data for 2002 and 2003 are projections. Source: Norges Bank (2001) The Government Petroleum Fund: Annual Report; Ministry of Finance estimates.

  32. Chart 42: Canadian Pension Plan asset holdings Source: Canadian Pension Plan Annual Report, various years, Government of Canada; Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board, Annual Report, various years.

  33. Chart 43: Accumulated assets in Ireland’s National Pension Reserve Fund Source: National Pension Reserve Fund Commission, 2001.

  34. Table 1: Commonwealth Government Securities outstanding Note: Net of Commonwealth holdings and debt on issue for the States and Territories. Source: Australian Office of Financial Management, 2002.

  35. Table 2: Correlation of changes in interest rate swap rate with other debt security yields Note: Correlation calculations based on monthly yield data fro three-year fixed coupon bonds over the period August 1997 to June 2002. Source: Treasury calculations based on data from Bloomberg, 2002.

  36. Table 3: Holdings of CGS by sector Note: Amount outstanding at the end of the June quarter. Estimates for 2001-02 are for the end of the March quarter. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2002) Financial Accounts, Cat. No. 5232, March quarter.

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