Energy Future and Policies: AIM-China Activities

1. Energy Future and Policies: AIM-China Activities AIM-China/Emission Team 13th AIM International Workshop, Feb.17-18, 2008

2. AIM-China Modeling Activities • Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030 • 2050 Study • Energy Tax Assessment • Post-2012 options for China • Key technology options and assessment • Assessment for Summer time • AIM-Local/China

3. Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030 • Energy Strategy energy scenarios • World bank energy scenarios: Baseline and rebalance scenario • IEA WEO-2007

4. GDP and Its Growth Rate Projection in China from 2000 to 2030

5. Projection on China’s Population during 2000~2030, million units

6. China’s GDP Per Capita Projection

7. 2006 Results

8. 2007 Results

9. 2007 Results

14. National Energy Expenses 200000 150000 Base scenario A hundred million 100000 Policy scenario 50000 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Year

15. 2006 Results

16. Investment Demand of Energy Industry 10000 8000 Base scenario A hundred million 6000 Policy scenario 4000 2000 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Year 2007 Results

17. Ownership of Vehicle vehicle/1000people 600 US Canada 明显的左移效应 500 Italy Sweden France 北京2020 400 UK Spain 300 台湾 北京2007 Greece 200 杭州2007 中国2030PPP法 中国2030汇率法 东营2005 100 上海2007 新加坡 香港 韩国 India 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 GDP per Capita (1997 $ PPP) Source: RIIA, 1997 Chatham House Forum

18. Forecast of vehicle, 2008 results IPAC-2004 IPAC-BaU 10000 IPAC-policy Year

19. Distance for commute and time Distance Time

20. Times to take vehicle and distance， per week Times Distance

21. Output of Vehicle 10000

22. 2007 Results

23. 2050 studies • Energy Strategy energy scenarios • LCS • China’s Low Carbon Economy development path study

26. Domestic Willing Low carbon tech and change of consumption Demonstrated by Developed Countries 70% to 80% emission reduction?

27. Population in 2005 Population in 2030

28. Population in 2050

29. IPCC Range

30. IPCC Range

35. Energy Tax System Design: Objectives  Review, assess international experience for energy tax  By using model, make a quantitative cost-benefit analysis of application of energy tax  Design energy tax system in China, with full consideration of existing tax system

36. Tax rate 1

37. Tax rate 2

38. Tax rate 3

39. Tax rate 4

40. Tax rate 5

41. Tax rate 6

42. Tax rate 7

43. Impact on GDP Impact on Energy Demand

44. Impact on sector energy Impact on sector output

46. Energy Tax System • Levy on: coal, petroleum, natural gas • Exception : renewable energy, energy as feedstock • Who pay: energy mining industry • Energy import: levy by custome • How to calculate: based on physical unit, ton, m3 • Period to levy: • scheme 1, based on month • Scheme 2, each half year • Where to pay: headquarter, site for energy mining • Tax rate: increase step by step, suggest to use tax rate 2

47. Post 2012 option road map of China

48. 夏时制实施国家图：110个国家 蓝色:目前正实行夏令时间的地区；橙色:曾经实行夏令时间但目前沒有使用的地区；红色:从来沒有实行过夏令时间的地区

49. Summer time map

50. What is summer time impact on User of Lighting, air conditioner mainly include residential, service and industry Urban residential is the major party impacted by summer time. There is strong social time regime. - Time for office - Shopping, consumption time. - Media time