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State of the Snow Sports Market November 2012 Market Conditions. MARKET OVERVIEW. Consumer’s Perspective Last season disappointed. Pent up demand? Economic Uncertainty – “fiscal cliff” Wage growth flat Continued lack of vacation time Overall lack of time “Nobody to go with”
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State of the Snow Sports Market November 2012 Market Conditions
MARKET OVERVIEW Consumer’s Perspective • Last season disappointed. Pent up demand? • Economic Uncertainty – “fiscal cliff” • Wage growth flat • Continued lack of vacation time • Overall lack of time • “Nobody to go with” Retailer’s Perspective • Smaller orders, smaller in-season inventories • Very slow November • Waiting for snow in November Supplier’s Perspective • Pre-season equipment orders for equipment for 2012/2013 down 10% to 50% in equipment • Retailer cash flow issues continuing into buying season • Manufacturing costs overseas increasing due to labor initiatives, tariffs, materials costs increases, and currency policy • Inventory risk – who carries the burden Resort’s Perspective • Skier visits down 5% to 40% at resorts in 2011/12 • Advance season pass sales strong • Participants age 25 to 35 have less time and discretionary income • Baby boomers leaving the slopes at 150,000 per year with smaller Gen X behind them
AUGUST – NOVEMBER 2012 MARKET OVERVIEW Results with Carryover Sales Included • Equipment – down 11% in units, down 13% in $ to $283M • Apparel – down 3% in units, down 4% in $ to $517M • Accessories – down 11% in units, down 7% in $ to $297M Results with Carryover Sales Excluded • Equipment – down 16% in units, down 17% in $ to $253M • Apparel – down 7% in units, down 6% in $ to $487M • Accessories – down 15% in units, down 10% in $ to $276M
AUGUST – NOVEMBER 2012MARKET OVERVIEW: INVENTORIES Comparing Inventory Units Nov 30, 2012 v. Nov 30, 2011 • Equipment inventories - 16% fatter • Alpine Equipment – 17% fatter • Snowboard Equipment – 22% fatter • Nordic Equipment – 9% leaner • Apparel – 3% fatter • Accessories – 5% leaner On Nov 30, 2012, $1.2BM in snow sports gear was sitting in snow sports specialty retail inventories, $112M more than on Nov 30, 2011.
AUGUST – NOVEMBER REGIONAL SPECIALTY SALES • Western Specialty Sales: $181M, down 15% • Northeastern Specialty Sales: $159M, down 18% • Midwestern Specialty Sales: $110M, down 4% • Southern Specialty Sales: $69M, down 19% Source: SIA Snow Sports RetailTRAK™, Topline Regional Category View.
MARKET DISRUPTION OCT/NOV 2012 Hurricane Sandy - Disrupted lives and retail sales in late October and November along much of the length of the Eastern Seaboard. More than one-third of skiers and riders reside in areas directly impacted by this super storm. Snow sports specialty retailers in the Northeast suffered a $35M (18%) decline in season-to-date (through November) dollar sales and the South saw snow sports sales slip $16M (19%). Equipment dollar sales were particularly depressed in these two storm-struck regions, down 23% in the Northeast and down 27% in the South.
August – November 2012 (in-season) Alpine Ski EQUIPMENTExecutive Summary • In all snow sports sales channels alpine ski equipment (In-season - excludes carryover): • Chain Stores: $6M, down 15% in units and down 20% in dollars • Specialty Shops: $115M, down 17% in units and down 19% in dollars • Internet Shops: $35M, up 18% in units and up 9% in dollars • Alpine ski equipment sales (In-season - excludes carryover) in all channels: • Alpine Skis: down 17% in $ sold to $79M, down 11% in units sold to 210,794 • Alpine Boots: down 12% in $ sold to $58M, down 14% in units sold to 212,379 • Alpine Bindings: down 7% in $ sold to 15M, down 7% in units sold to 101,126 • Alpine Poles: down 12% in $ sold to $4M, down 11% in units sold to 107,930 • Alpine/AT boots with a walk mode and Vibram/rubber soles enjoyed a 121% increase in dollars sold through Nov to $5M with 11,222 units sold • The majority of casual skiers are ages 25-34 (21%), while the majority of core skiers are 45-54 (17%) • Carryover ski sales soared 25% to $6.8M. • On-Resort Backcountry trails continue to grow in popularity – 2M alpine skiers reported participating in “backcountry” in lift served areas
AUGUST – NOVEMBER 2012SNOWBOARD MARKET EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Pre-season orders for snowboards were down 24% overall • In all snow sports sales channels snowboard equipment (In-season - excludes carryover): • Chain Stores: $6M, down 32% in units and down 36% in dollars • Specialty Shops: $46M, down 31% in units and down 31% in dollars • Internet Shops: $30M, up 9% in units and up 3% in dollars • Snowboard equipment sales (In-season - excludes carryover) in all channels: • Snowboards: down 22% in $ sold to $41M, down 22% in units sold to 140,568 • Snowboard Boots: down 23% in $ sold to $21M, down 22% in units sold to 139,711 • Snowboard Bindings: down 20% in $ sold to $20M, down 19% in units sold to 138,550 • Carryover sales in snowboard equipment reached $10M and were up 28% in units and up 17% in dollars sold compared to Aug – Nov sales in 2011. • 7.6 million Americans participated in snowboarding at least 1 time in 2011/2012, down 7.5% from last season. • Decline in participation of those who get on the mountain at least 9 times is nearly four times greater than the overall drop in snowboard participation • Snowboard equipment specialty retail inventories are up 17% in units stored compared to levels on Nov 30, 2011. On Nov 30, 2012, $135M in snowboard equipment was in specialty retail inventories • Through Nov 30, snowboard equipment margins in specialty shops for in-season snowboard equipment are down 6% to an average of 31.1% compared to margins through Nov 2011
CROSS COUNTRY MARKET EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • The 2011/2012 snow sports season was particularly difficult for the Nordic community due to the lack of snow nationwide. • 2012 2013 Pre-season orders down 40%+ • In all snow sports sales channels cross country ski equipment (In-season - excludes carryover): • Chain Stores: $748K, down 48% in units and down 48% in dollars • Specialty Shops: $5M, down 26% in units and down 22% in dollars • Internet Shops: $1M, down 33% in units and down 22% in dollars • Cross country ski equipment sales (In-season - excludes carryover) in all channels: • Cross country Skis: down 27% in $ sold to $3M, down 30% in units sold to 18,398 • Cross country Boots: down 28% in $ sold to $2.5M, down 33% in units sold to 19,921 • Cross country Bindings: down 28% in $ sold to 860K, down 32% in units sold to 13,967 • Cross country Poles: down 21% in $ sold to $676K, down 28% in units sold to 15,660 • Cross country equipment carryover sales were down28% in $ sold and up 21% in units sold through Nov 30, 2012 compared to Nov 30, 2011 • On November 30,2012, Nordic equipment inventories were 7% leaner compared to Inventory levels on November 30, 2011. Lack of equipment orders for this season may be driving this trend. • 4.3 million Americans participated in cross country skiing during winter 2011/2012, down 5% from the 2010/2011 season.
AUGUST – NOVEMBER 2012APPAREL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY(Includes Carryover Sales) • Alpine apparel $ sales were down 4% compared to Aug – Nov 2011 sales. Snow sports retailers sold $517M in apparel through Nov 2012 • Chain Stores: $142K, down 6% in units and down 6% in dollars • Specialty Shops: $197M, down 11% in units and down 11% in dollars • Internet Shops: $178M, up 11% in units and up 8% in dollars sold – carryover sales online grew 138% in $ sold to $16M – 9% of all online apparel sales were carryover • Apparel sales In all snow sports sales channels: • Alpine Tops: down 1% in units to 3.3M, down 1% in dollars to $379M • Alpine Bottoms: down 9% in units to 533K, down 8% in dollars to $48M • Snowboard Tops: down 13% in units to 335K, down 21% in dollars to $37M • Snowboard Bottoms: down 12% in units to 205K, down 19% in dollars to $20M • Soaring alpine top carryover sales indicate that consumers found the bargains they were looking for through November • Carryover alpine tops up 118% in units to 307K units that sold for $19M, an 101% increase in $ sold. In fact, non-carryover alpine tops sales were down 6% in $ sold
AUG – OCT 2012ACCESSORIES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Accessories sales finished the 2011/2012 season down 15% in units and down 8% in dollars sold to $1.1B. Early in the 2012/2013 season, accessories sales are down 11% in units sold and down 7% in dollars sold to $297M • Helmets - down 15% in units to 280K, down 16% in dollars sold to $21M • Goggles – down 22% in units to 249K, down 16% in $ sold to $17M • Gloves –down 13% in units to 712K, down 13% in $ sold to $26M • Headwear – down 13% in units to 1.1B, down 8% in $ sold to $24M • Base Layer – down 15% in units to 1B, down 7% in $ sold to $43M • Carryover accessories – up 53% in units, up 51% in $ to $20M Accessories inventories in specialty shops were down 5% in units compared to Nov 30, 2011 Snowfall and weather overall have enormous impacts on accessories sales because many are bought on the way to, or at the resort. A good snow year could clean out inventories this season.
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR 2012/2013 Dec 29, 2011 Dec 29, 2012
LOOKING AHEAD: THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES • Fallout from a terrible season: • Smaller orders • Conservative product mix • Bankruptcy – retail and supply • Consolidation • Lack of momentum early season 2012/2013 • Opportunity to leverage a better snow season in 2012/2013? Snow Outlook Improving • Will retailers sell through inflated inventories? • How can we work together to keep snow sports healthy?