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Analysis of Risk and Elimination Units for Marine Oil Pollution in EU Waters

Conducting statistical and risk analysis to evaluate oil spill risk in European waters and develop operational profiles for EU-MOP units. Seeking answers to critical questions and assessing high-risk areas for oil spillage.

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Analysis of Risk and Elimination Units for Marine Oil Pollution in EU Waters

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  1. Elimination Units for Marine Oil Pollution Oil Pollution Risk in EU Waters: Analysis & Results Nikolaos P. VentikosLecturer, NTUA Athens, 9 June 06

  2. Overview • Target description • Seeking answers to critical questions • Maritime traffic regarding oil movement • Priority areas according to EMSA • Oil spill analysis for European waters • Study of Environmental Data • Risk Analysis in EU Waters • Preliminary EU-MOP Application Profile

  3. Target Description To conduct a thorough statistical/risk analysis in order to evaluate the risk of oil spills in European waters and develop a preliminary operational envelop for the deployment and application of the EU-MOP solution

  4. Seeking Answers to Critical Questions • What sea conditions will the EU-MOP units face in European waters? • What types of oil will the EU-MOPs be called upon to confront? • During which seasons most of the accidents/spills happen and therefore the EU-MOP units are expected to operate? • What are the typical sizes of oil spills that the EU-MOP units will be called upon to confront? • Which are the high risk areas for oil spillage and therefore deployment of the EU-MOP in EU waters?

  5. Maritime Oil Traffic Major oil trade movements in 2003 (x106 tons) Source: BP, EMSA Indicative tanker traffic and volume of oil transported in 2001 Source: EMSA

  6. Oil Industry in Europe: Ashore & Offshore Major maritime traffic routes, major ports & major offshore installations in EU waters

  7. Priority Areas for Additional Response Priority areas for additional response capacity Source: EMSA

  8. Oil Spill Trends in EU Waters Oil spilled in Europe from 1990 to 2004 (spills > 7 tons)Source: ITOPF

  9. Oil Spill Analysis for EU Waters • Mediterranean Sea • Baltic Sea • North Sea • Kiel Canal • English Channel • British Islands • European Atlantic (France, Spain and Portugal)

  10. Oil Spill Analysis (Mediterranean Sea) Spills in the Med. Seaaccording to Size (1990-2003) Source of Raw Data: REMPEC

  11. Oil Spill Analysis (Baltic Sea) Spills in the Baltic Sea according to Size (1990-2002) Source of Raw Data: HELCOM/MARIS

  12. Oil Spill Analysis (British Islands) Fluctuation of number of spills per annum (1990-2003)

  13. Study of Environmental Data Density Function of Hs (English Channel)Source : NTUA Polar Histogram (%) of Mean Wave Direction, θ (English Channel)Source : NTUA

  14. Study of Environmental Data Distribution of wave direction for the coasts of Portugal and Galicia (Spain)

  15. Risk Analysis in EU Waters Risk Parameters (ordinal/ranking approach) • Level of Past Spill Incidents • Level of Tanker Traffic • Basic Traffic Hazards • Tanker Route Diverges or Merges with Traffic Flow • Geographical Hazards of the Area of Interest • Major Port Activities • Major Refinery Activities • Navigation Hazards • Sea State Characteristics • Particularly Sensitive Areas • Level of Response Capacity • Level of Financial and Environmental Impact

  16. Risk Analysis in EU Waters Assessment of risk ranking for selected areas in the Mediterranean Sea

  17. Risk Analysis in EU Waters Proposed Risk Areas in the EU Waters Mediterranean Sea • The Aegean Sea • The Southern Region of Sicily (Straits of Sicily) • The North Adriatic Sea • The Straits of Gibraltar Atlantic Front (European Atlantic) • The Galician Coast NW of Spain • The English Channel (e.g. its approaches) North Sea • Off the Coasts of the Netherlands and Belgium • The UKCS and the Area of Offshore Oil & Gas Inst., NE of the UK Baltic Sea • The Kiel Canal & the Entrance to the Baltic Sea • The Entrance to Gulf of Finland

  18. Risk Analysis in EU Waters Distribution of Risk Areas within EU waters

  19. EU-MOP Preliminary Application Profile Operational & Environmental Envelop of the Med. Sea • The expected wave height in the area of interest is highly unlikely to exceed the average value of 2 m • Strong currents exist both in western and eastern Mediterranean Sea (e.g. Crete); units operating in these areas should have additional maneuverability • Persistent oil types are responsible for most of the accidents and biggest portion of spilled quantities • Most of the accidents with small spills (0-7 tons) involve oils with specific gravity between 0.85 and 0.95 while large spills (>700 tons) involve almost exclusively oils with specific gravity of more than 0.95 • The probability of occurrence of an accident is the same for all seasons • The spilled quantities are much lower during winter time • Most of the oil spills in this region belong to the small (0-7 ton) and medium category (7-700 ton) while the spilled quantity originates from few large accidents (>700) and medium ones

  20. EU-MOP Preliminary Application Profile Operational & Environmental Envelop of the E.A. • The average expected wave height during the entire year can be above 3 m with the exception of summer when it falls below 2 m • Most of the accidents and spilled oil quantity involve types of oil with specific gravity more than 0.95 • Most of the spills occur in autumn and summer

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