The Orange Order in the Twentieth Century: A Comparative Perspective

1. The Orange Order in the Twentieth Century: A Comparative Perspective

2. The Orange Order • Formed 1795 in Northern Ireland • Stands for loyalty to British Crown & Protestantism • Associative cornerstone of British dominant ethnicity in Canada, N.I. • Britannic ethno-nationalist • Rapidly spread internationally

3. ESRC Research • Focuses on Orange Order and social change in the 20th century • Issue of how ethnic cores of nations deal with liberal modernity and globalisation • Orange Order as the associational glue behind dominant ethnicity in N.I., Canada, W.C. Scotland • Little study of the Order in the contemporary period

4. Main Research Questions • What factors cause per capita Orange membership strength to rise and fall over time and across place? (social question) • How effective is the Orange Order in determining policy change, and why does its power rise and fall over time and place? (political question)

5. Research Methodology • Quantitative: Compare Orange membership among Protestants with variables from census, police reports, history, polls. Over time and across county and ‘province’ (N.I., Scotland, Nfld., Ontario) • Qualitative: Compare Orange resolutions and organised political activity over time and place. Look at class profile of elite and membership over time. Interviews. • Sources: Previously unseen internal documents; census, polls, violence stats, valuation rolls, some newspapers

6. Canadian Orangeism • First parades in the 1810s • Grand Lodge formed - 1830 • Originally immigrant, later ‘native’ • Not Irish - a mixture of several British ethnic groups and some others

7. Social & Political Influence- Canada • Politically influential by 1867 • Many Tory MPs were members • Involved in most national issues • 1/3 of Ontario legislature was Orange in 1915 • 1/3 of Ontario males were members during 1870-1920 • Hundreds of thousands in the wider Orange fraternity as late as the 1950's

8. Political Influence in N. Ireland • Helped found Ulster Unionist Party • Guaranteed 15% of seats on Ulster Unionist Council • Virtually all Unionist MPs are, and have been, Orange members (Paisley an exception) • Orange Order an influential lobby

9. Twentieth Century Decline • Stable for 100+ years, sudden decline • Also declined in England and Australia/NZ • Did not decline in N. Ireland until later • Delayed or small declines in Newfoundland and Scotland • Why the pattern of decline? What does it portend for N. Ireland politics?

10. Theories of Fraternal Change • Beito: Decline in 1920’s as welfare state emerges • Emery: Decline in 1920’s or 30’s due to private insurance and expanded recreational options • Putnam: Depression caused decline, WWII boosted membership. Differences in ‘Social Capital’ between Generations explains most of post-1960 decline. • Culturalist: Decline of Protestant Religiosity (Bruce), Decline of Loyalty to Crown (Cheal), Decline of British-Protestant Ethnic Identity, Ecumenism • Events mobilise or de-mobilise members

11. Preliminary Research: Qualitative • Based on Interviews & Reports • Leaders and Rank-and-file members point to structural forces • But nearly all admit cultural pressures • Also speak of role of events • Institutional changes not seen as significant by members - though leaders think otherwise • Qualitative evidence inconclusive

12. Quantitative Research • Based on Previously Restricted Membership Data • Previous research has only tracked the number of lodges • Membership data highlights different patterns, contrasts with census and other data

13. Concentrated in Ontario, NB & Nfld, but strength Nationwide

20. Current Trends in N.I. Orange Membership, 1966-2001

22. International Orange Similarities • All jurisdictions experience growth until the 1920’s • All decline in the Depression years • All experience growth after World War II • All experience steady decline in recent decades • N.I; Scotland; Ontario; Newfoundland

23. International Differences • Membership decline sets in as early as the 1920’s in Ontario (1960 in NF) and decline in the 1920-39 period is sharper in Ontario • Membership decline in the post-1960 period has been quicker in Canada, while Northern Ireland and Scotland have declined at similar steady rates

24. Inter-County Patterns, N.I. Orangeism • General decline since membership peak in early 1960’s (mid-Ulster), or 50’s (East) • Height of the ‘Troubles’ (1969-72) boosted membership temporarily, as did Anglo-Irish Agreement and Drumcree • However, general trend is a steady decline • Urban areas suffer heavier declines, even taking into account population flows.

25. Male Orange Lodges, Southern Ontario, c. 1975

26. Newfoundland Male Orange Lodges, 1961

27. Orange Lodges, Co. Armagh, 1991

28. Male Orange Lodges, Scotland, 2001

29. Roman Catholic Percentage, Scottish Counties, 1961

30. Male Orange Density Scotland, 1961

33. Male Orange Density, N.I., 1971

36. N.I. Counties, by Protestant Percentage, 1971

37. Church of Ireland Protestants, N.I. Counties, 1971

38. Inter-Fraternal Patterns • Masons appear to have outdrawn Orange Order from late forties until late sixties in N.I. And since the 1920’s in Ontario ONT; NI 1 • Orange Order has withstood post-1970 declines better than Masonic NI2 • Inter-County Patterns in Masonic match those of Orange • IOOF declined in step with Orange in Ontario ONT

40. Summary • Great deal of similarity in shape of historical patterns of membership across nations and fraternities • Great deal of difference between places and fraternities in terms of slope of rise/decline in membership

41. Statistical Summary – Pooled TSCS • Economic factors less important than cultural, events in between • Scotland and Ontario: Irish-Protestant % key; Catholic competition also important, but less so • N. Ireland and Ontario: Protestant denomination important • 'social capital' theory seems to have some weight in Northern Ireland, but none in Scotland

42. Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across Time • Denominational balance (esp. rise of Methodism and Other Protestant sects) important during 1901-71. • Orangeism in N.I. And Scotland responded to RC population growth until 1970, but not since then • Political events (Troubles, Peace Agreements, Drumcree) have been a factor in N.I. post-1970 • Rate of Protestant fatalities have had little impact in N.I. since 1970 • High-school education appears correlated with membership decline in Ontario during 1955-75 • Still more work needed in this and other areas

43. Conclusion • Orangeism is a worldwide movement historically strongest in Ulster and eastern Canada • Orangeism’s rise owed a lot to both Irish-Protestant emigration and inter-ethnic conflict with a Catholic ethnie. Relatively Catholic counties in N.I., Ontario and Scotland have more ‘Orange’ Protestants

44. Conclusion II • The role of economic change is minimal during the period 1891-1971 in all areas • The role of events is important, but less so than cultural change. Strong evidence against ‘contact’ hypothesis • Some evidence appears to support Putnam thesis (N.I. but not Scotland), though more work needed with respect to generation, as well as time-series analysis • No definitive answer yet as to why Orangeism is in decline over past 20-30 years

45. ESRC Project Web Sites • http://www.kpdata.com/epk/subtheme_A__OO_in_20th_c.html (Fellowship) • http://www.devolution.ac.uk/Patterson2.htm (Devolution Programme Grant, with Henry Patterson)