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The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health and Crime

The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health and Crime. Carlos Dobkin, Nancy Nicosia. Background on Methamphetamine. Methamphetamine is typically sold in powdered form. It is usually inhaled, but may also be ingested orally or injected. Slows dopamine uptake and creates a euphoric state

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The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health and Crime

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  1. The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health and Crime Carlos Dobkin, Nancy Nicosia

  2. Background on Methamphetamine • Methamphetamine is typically sold in powdered form. It is usually inhaled, but may also be ingested orally or injected. • Slows dopamine uptake and creates a euphoric state • Some users experience violent and psychotic episodes • Hallucinations, paranoia, depression • Some users experience adverse physical symptoms • Chest pains, headaches • Users surveyed in Queensland reported committing both property and violent crimes.

  3. Methamphetamine Abuse Is a Growing Problem in the U.S. • In the 1980s methamphetamine was used primarily by adult white males in western states • Use is increasing among minorities, women and high school students • Nearly one-third of state and local enforcement agencies surveyed in 2003 rated methamphetamine as one of the greatest drug threats in their area (NDIC 2003) • There has been lots of attention to the methamphetamine problem in the press. (e.g. NYTimes 2/10/2005)

  4. The Government Has Three Strategies to Curb Illegal Drug Use • Prevention: Education and community action • Discourage people from starting to use drugs • $2B budget in 2005 • Demand side intervention • Treatment: Programs for drug users • Get people who use drugs to stop • $4B budget in 2005 • Demand side intervention • Enforcement: Reduce Availability • $6B budget in 2005 • Supply side intervention • Unlike treatment and prevention experimental evaluation is not feasible

  5. Goals of this Study • Examine the impact of an extremely successful DEA enforcement effort in the methamphetamine precursor market on: • Price and purity of methamphetamine • Hospitalizations and drug treatment admissions for methamphetamine • Property crime, violent crime and drug crime

  6. Evidence of the Effect of Reducing Methamphetamine Supply • Cunningham and Liu (2003) find that regulation of precursors reduces methamphetamine hospitalizations. • Abt Associates (2000) find that a 1% increase in methamphetamine prices reduces consumption by 1.48% • Numerous studies of price elasticity of cocaine and heroin in U.S. (DiNardo 1993, Yuan and Caulkins 1998, Caulkins 2000 …) • These studies have some limitations • They are identified of changes in price with unknown sources. • They typically use data aggregated to the year and state level potentially masking temporary or local changes. • They do not examine the direct effect of enforcement on outcomes of interest such as crime and adverse health events.

  7. Methamphetamine Production Is Dependent on Precursor Availability • Methamphetamine is “cooked” in illegal drug labs using either ephedrine or pseudoephedrine as a precursor • Ephedrine or pseudoephedrine have many legal uses. • Over the counter medicine such as Sudafed and Tylenol Cold contain pseudophedrine • The DEA works to keep these chemicals from getting diverted to illegal uses

  8. Significant Precursor Legislation (1989-2000) • October 1989: Chemical Diversion and Trafficking Act • Regulated bulk ephedrine and pseudoephedrine • August 1995: Domestic Chemical Diversion Control Act (DCDCA) • Removes the record keeping and reporting exemption for single entity ephedrine products. • October 1996: Methamphetamine Control Act • Regulates access to over the counter medicines containing ephedrine. • October 1997: Methamphetamine Control Act • Regulates products containing pseudoephedrine or phenylpropanolamine • July 2000: The Methamphetamine Anti-Proliferation Act • Establishes thresholds for pseudoephedrine drug products.

  9. Significant Precursor Interventions Resulted from the DCDCA • Two large interventions occurred in May 1995 • Clifton Pharmaceuticals: 25 metric tons of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine • Xpressive Looks International: Distributed about 830 million ephedrine tablets (over 18 months) • Scale of two interventions is enormous • Production potential was 29 metric tons of methamphetamine • DEA seized only 762 kilograms of methamphetamine in 1994 (DEA STRIDE) • ONDCP estimated total methamphetamine consumption was 34.1 metric tons in 1994

  10. Our Analysis Relies on Detailed Data from a Variety of Sources • Census of DEA seizures & purchases • Census of California hospitalizations • Census of drug treatment admissions in California • Survey and drug test of a non random sample of arrestees for three California cities • Monthly reported crimes and arrests in California by jurisdiction

  11. The Interventions Resulted in Temporary Changes in Prices, Purity, and Adverse Health Outcomes • There was a large though temporary increase in prices • Price increased from $30 to $100 • Prices returned to pre-intervention levels within four months • There was an enormous and longer-lasting impact on purity • Purity declined from 90% to 20% • Purity required 18 months to recover to near pre-intervention levels • There was a substantial decline in adverse health outcomes associated with methamphetamine • Amphetamine-related hospitalizations declined by 50% • Methamphetamine-related treatment admissions declined by 35% • Changes in health outcomes track the purity rather than prices

  12. Some Evidence of Substitution to Other Drugs • Poly drug use is high among arrestees • Methamphetamine users also use cocaine, heroin and marijuana • There is some evidence that some methamphetamine users are switching to cocaine and heroin • Decline in cocaine purity • Increase in positive cocaine and heroin tests among arrestees who reported ever using methamphetamine • Still a very large overall reduction in drug use

  13. There is Evidence of an Association Between Methamphetamine Use and Crime • Drug use is common among people arrested for property crimes, violent crimes and drug crimes • Proportion of arrestees testing positive for methamphetamine for all three crime categories drops as a result of the intervention. • How a reduction in methamphetamine supply might impact crime rates is not clear • Property crime may rise or fall depending on the price elasticity of consumption • Violent crime due to the pharmacological effects of methamphetamine may fall • Violent crime due to the enforcement of property rights may fall • Drug crime: arrests for possession and sale are likely to fall as there are fewer transactions to conduct

  14. The 1995 DEA Intervention Had a Large, Temporary Impact on Adverse Outcomes • Price jumped from $30 per gram to $100 per gram and Purity declined from 90% to 20% • Hospital admissions for methamphetamine declined by 50% • Treatment admissions for methamphetamine declined by 35% • Methamphetamine use declined by 55% among arrestees and some arrestees switched to cocaine and heroin. • Felony arrests for “Dangerous Drugs” declined by 50% • Misdemeanor arrests for “Other Drug Laws” declined by 25% • The decrease in methamphetamine availability may have slightly reduced larcenies and motor vehicle thefts • No discernable reduction in violent crime

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