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UKIP and Immigration

UKIP and Immigration. Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk ; twitter: @ epkaufm ; web: www.sneps.net. Data. Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. 460 UKIP supporters or voters

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UKIP and Immigration

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  1. UKIP and Immigration Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www.sneps.net

  2. Data • Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. • 460 UKIP supporters or voters • Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward • longitudinal • Local Election Data, 2010-12 • UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940 • Census predictors

  3. Source: Understanding Society, 2009-12

  4. UKIP: Not BNP in Blazers

  5. Clusters in UKIP • Southern, Tory-dominated ward, rural, homeowner [traditional UKIP base] • Lower class, low education, older, council house/renter [‘left behind’] • 2 ideological clusters

  6. Local Council Elections UKIP Census Index: • Total Population (ward) • % Retired (ward) • % Degrees (ward) • % No qualifications (ward) • % English as a Share of White British (LA) • Low Deprivation (LA) Predicts around 40% of variation in UKIP vote in councils they contested during 2010-12

  7. Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

  8. Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

  9. UKIP not a response to local ethnic change. BNP vote much more so (i.e. Barking) UKIP supporters dislike immigration in the abstract, BNP more likely to be in close-knit communities directly affected by immigration

  10. Does UKIP own immigration? • UKIP supporters more outstandingly Euroskeptic than anti-immigration (Ford & Goodwin 2014, p. 193), unlike BNP • 82 percent of White British want immigration reduced, 60 percent ‘reduced a lot’. Not a minority. • UKIP long way to go to reach most anti-immigration voters

  11. UKIP a Coalition • UKIP cross-class, multiple issues, unlike BNP • Elderly profile unique. Europe more an old person’s issue than immigration • Can UKIP encompass old and young, middle and working class? • Tension between rural base and urban working class

  12. UKIP: Rural Traditionalists or Working-Class Populists?

  13. e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk;twitter: @epkaufm; web: www.sneps.net

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