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Can biomass replace fossil fuels? The role of bioenergy in the future energy system

Can biomass replace fossil fuels? The role of bioenergy in the future energy system. Dr. Heinz Kopetz World Bioenergy Association , Stockholm Zagreb, 2 Decemer 2015 6th International Wood Conference.

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Can biomass replace fossil fuels? The role of bioenergy in the future energy system

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  1. Can biomass replace fossil fuels?The role of bioenergy in the future energy system Dr. Heinz Kopetz World BioenergyAssociation, Stockholm Zagreb, 2 Decemer 2015 6th International Wood Conference World Bioenergy Association (WBA) – join the global voice of bioenergy!

  2. World BioenergyAssociation (WBA) join the global voice of bioenergy! – www.worldbioenergy.org

  3. WBA: Bioenergy Equipment Directory

  4. The current issues on energy and climate Climate conference in Paris How to reach the 2°C target? Energy security Economic aspects of fossil and renewable energies What is the future of the energy system? What is the future of bioenergy?

  5. Energymix in different EU countries, 2013relation: available for final consumption to renewables for gross inland consumption. Source: EU pocket book energy 2015 Red: % fossil and nuclear Green: % renewables An increasing share of renewables in Denmark, Finland, Sweden! A low share in Slovak R., Hungary; in between Croatia. The differences: Hungary new nuclear plant; Sweden: vision of a fossil free society, nuclear plants will be closed - too expensive! What is the future of energy?

  6. What will be the future of the energy system? The repetition of the past? - coal, nuclear, oil, gas? Or something completely different, new? This is a question of awareness, of a natural science based analysis of the present problems and finally of political decisions! This leads us to the Climate challenge and the Paris conference and to a brief look to the past!

  7. Natural science base facts and climate mitigtion • CO2 - themaincauseofclimatechange. • Fossil fuels: themainsourceof CO2 emissions! • Theiruseshouldbehalvedby 2035 – not 460EJ but 230EJ! • Not cuttingforestsistheproblem but digging out fossil carbon! Coal, oil, gas shouldremain in theearthcrust! The only alternative to a climatedesaster: Reducing fossil fuelsandreplacethembybetterefficiencyandrenewableenergies

  8. Annual Developmemt of C02 emissions; fossil fuels –the main problem! (source: IPCC 5th assessment Synthesis report – summary for policy makers. 1 Nov 2014)

  9. IPCC on C02 emissions EU target IPCC defined a carbonbudgetforthiscentury in linewiththe 2°C target. Accordingtothisbudgettheemissionsfrom 2012 to 2100 should not exceed1,6 ton C02/capitaandyear (range 0,8 – 2,4 ton)! Croatiaca 4,5t C02/capita! The EU emits at present 3 -4 timesmore C02 thanforeseen in the global carbonbudgetascalculatedby IPCC!! Whathappened in the last years?

  10. Bioenergy: a globally booming pellets production

  11. Bioenergy: leading renewable in Europe

  12. Sweden as examples: 34% bioenergy in Sw 66% of heat comes from RES, mainly biomass, ca 98 TWh! Renewables make more than 50% of final energy, around 34% of this is bioenergy!

  13. The developmentofwindenergy 2004 - 2014 In the new energy world wind energy will play an extraordinary role. Over the last ten year wind energy achieved an annual growth of 22,8%, If the annual growth rate could be managed with 15% wind capacity by 2035 would attain 7 000 GW corresponding to 15 800 TWh; this is 70% of the current global electricity generation! Similar the situation with solar electricity!

  14. Global installed wind capacity 393 GW June 2015

  15. First conclusions in view of Paris, climate mitigation, security: Whatshouldbethefuture? theScandinavianway, gofor 100% renewablesandbetterefficiency! Doing so wesolveseveralproblems: climateissue, energysecurity, regional jobsandcheapenergy! What will bethefuture? The future will depend on politicaldecision, on therightframeworkconditionsforrenewables! Also on publicawareness!

  16. What are these needed decisions? Stopp subsidies and investments in fossil fuels Introduce a carbon tax promote renewable electricity: Wind,PV, hydro and cogeneration biomass/biogas – feed in tariffs! Go for renewable heat (biomass, solar) – financial support! go for biofuels (1st and 2nd generation) Improve efficiency

  17. Carbon tax: key tool to promote bioenergy. Sweden 121 Euro/ton C02

  18. Italy: themostdynamic European pelletsmarket Reference: A. Paniz and L. Pau, AIEL, presentation Jan. 2014 bioenergy Graz Consumption 2012: 2.2 million tons, annual growth 200 – 300.000 tons, 90% stoves, 10% boilers Annual growth rate 2003 -2013: 29%

  19. Bioenergy markets – heat, biofuels, electricity If Paris will besuccesful, ifthe countries taketherightdecisionsbioenergy will boom: Bioenergyforcities: Stockholm, Copenhagen, Güteborg, Paris, Ulm, Pecs, Graz? Wood aschips, aspelletsis a growingenergysourcefor European cities! The market will grow after a succesfulclimateconference. Districtheatingas a keystrategy! Combine biomass, wasteheat solar heat – lowertemperature, Denmark! Biomassasfirewood, chips, pelletsforfamilyhouses, companies, servicesectorandtheindustry. Biomassforcogeneration – heatdrivenifpossiblewith high efficiencyincludingbiogas Biomassforbiofuels, also forestbiomass will become a feedstockfor 2nd gen biofuels!

  20. Mobilize the potential of the wood sector! -Harvest the sustainable available increment -Improve the chain from the tree to the user: roads, harvests, -Transport, storage, processing, logistics -Improved training, education, consultancy -Plant short rotation forests to increase the supply -Develope a fair balance between protection of Natural resources and the needed economic use!

  21. Poplars, 5 years, Upper Austria January 2015 About 20t dry matter/year and ha Picture of srf

  22. Harvest of 5 year poplar, Westtech equipment The trees are cut and then put on the remorque

  23. Harvest II: storage on piles or chipping After cutting the trees are stored in piles or chipped and brought To a district heating plant with flue gas condensation!

  24. Willows, two year harvesting period

  25. Bioenergy in Austria: regional jobs and improved energy securtiy • 2108 biomassdistrictheatingplants • Biomnasscogenerationplants • 300 biogasinstallations • 38 pelletsproducer (ca 1 Mtcapacity) • 21 producerofbiofuels (ethanol, biodiesel • 22 thermal gasificationplants • 60 centersforresearchandeducation • 96 companiesalongthechain (boiler • producer, logisticsuppliers, • consultants etc.!

  26. The storageofenergy – synergiesbetween wind andbiomass Biomass is stored solar energy, The cost to build a storage space for biomass are low! It is expensive to store electricity. At least on the northern hemisphere more than 50% of the energy is needed as heat. In Europe 84%, in the USA and Japan more than 90% of this heat comes from fossil sources.

  27. The cost of energy storage Howtostoreenergyandwhataretheinvestmentcost? - aselectricity? - ashotwater? - in chemicalstoredenergy in biomass? Integrated systemsusingbiomass, waterstorageandelectricityforheatingcansolepartofthestorageproblemverycheap.

  28. Table: cost of storage on 1kWh energy, Euro/kWh The cost of energy storage Biomass is by far the cheapest choice for seasonal storage from summer to winter! Biomass in winter for heat and for CHP solutions!

  29. Whatshouldbe 2035? More than 50% RES in the global compositionof final energy EJ

  30. 2035, global compositionof RES for final energy more than 200 EJ – the world would move towards the climate targets!

  31. Global developmentsofbioenergy2 ½ foldincraseofbioenergy, 8 foldincreaseofother RES (solar, wind) The needed change in the composition of the energy supply until 2035 to comply with the mitigation pathway! World Bioenergy Association (WBA) – join the global voice of bioenergy! – www.worldbioenergy.org

  32. Can biomass replace fossil fuels? My answer: Yes, Biomass in combination with wind, PV, hydro and geothermal energy can replace fossil fuels. More distinctly: renewables have to replace fossil fuels to avoid a climate desaster and prevent a loss of our forests!!

  33. WBA message to COP 21 in Paris general Commit to reduce fossil fuel use by 50% until 2035 Promote all renewable technologies in all regions and countries Renewable Energy Action Plans: On the global, continental, national and regional level Carbon tax the key instrument to transform the energy system in all countries. On bioenergy High renewables means high bioenergy: e.g. Sweden, Brazil, Kenya etc.; biomass is the dominating renewable energy source.. Various instruments needed for bioenergy: agriculture sector, forestry sector, capacity building, market development and carbon taxes. Significant potential: Sustainable use of biomass can generate more than 140 EJ of energy by 2035 as compared to 56 EJ now..

  34. Can biomass replace fossil fuels? Globally biomass can cover 25 – 30% of the demand with big variations from country to country! Biomass in combination with other RES will replace fossil fuels! The future development is a question of political will and enterpreneurial initiative. Bioenergy needs a strong international voice. I invite you to join the World Bioenergy Association. Thank you very much!

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