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Autumn 2014 EDP notification

Autumn 2014 EDP notification. Eduardo Barredo Capelot Director Government Finance Statistics and Quality Eurostat. Presentation of the results of the autumn 2014 EDP notification. 2. EU28 debt ratio 2010-2013 (ESA 2010). 3. EU28 deficit ratio 2010-2013 (ESA 2010). 4.

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Autumn 2014 EDP notification

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  1. Autumn 2014 EDP notification Eduardo Barredo Capelot Director Government Finance Statistics and Quality Eurostat

  2. Presentation of the results of the autumn 2014 EDP notification 2

  3. EU28 debt ratio 2010-2013(ESA 2010) 3

  4. EU28 deficit ratio 2010-2013 (ESA 2010) 4

  5. Debt ratio by Member State, 2013 (ESA 2010) % of GDP 5

  6. Deficit ratio by Member State, 2013 (ESA 2010) % of GDP 6

  7. Impact of the introduction of ESA 2010 7

  8. ESA 2010 changes to GDP • Important update of national accounts concepts • Performed every 15-20 years • World-wide adaptation • ESA is the counterpart of the UN's SNA • Changing world and changing economies • Globalisation of the economy • Increasing role of ICT • Growing importance of intellectual property products Opportunity for further improvements 8

  9. Total impact on EU28 GDP level - 20103.67%of which Research & Development accounted for 1.86% 9

  10. ESA 2010 changes to debt and deficit • Delineation of general government sector • A change in the criteria used to determine the scope of the general government sector, which may lead to the reclassification of entities within the general government sector • Lump sums related to pension schemes • A change in the recording of lump sums paid to government in relation to transfer of pension funds • Treatment of swaps • The removal of an adjustment made for net interest flows associated with swaps and forward rate agreements • Other items • Mainly, standardised guarantees, payable tax credits and government issued permits 10

  11. Revision in EU28 debt ratio 2013: -1.8ppfrom 87.1% (April 2014, ESA 95) to 85.4% (Oct. 2014, ESA 2010) Due to revision of GDP -3.0pp Due to revision of debt +1.2pp ESA 2010 +1.0pp Other statistical improvements +0.2pp 11

  12. Revisions to the government debt ratio for 2013 (from April to October 2014) Percentage points of GDP 12

  13. Revision in EU28 deficit ratio 2013: +0.1ppfrom -3.3% (April 2014, ESA95) to -3.2% (Oct. 2014, ESA 2010) Due to revision of deficit 0.0pp Due to revision of GDP +0.1pp ESA 2010 -0.1pp Other statistical improvements +0.1pp 13

  14. Revisions to the government deficit ratio for 2013 (from April to October 2014) Percentage points of GDP 14

  15. Conclusions • No reservations on reported data • Impact on the aggregates relatively limited • More impact on debt ratios than on deficit ratios • No Member State pushed below or above 3% for deficit and 60% of debt because of these changes • Recalculation of back data  no breaks in series 15

  16. Further information • Eurostat website:http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu • Eurostat media support: eurostat-mediasupport@ec.europa.eu (+352) 4301 33408 16

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