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Emissions Data and Trends from Developed and Developing Countries ______________

Emissions Data and Trends from Developed and Developing Countries ______________. Pre COP Workshop for LDC Negotiators 29-30 November 2007 Bali, Indonesia Ilona Millar FIELD. Where does the Data come from?. UNFCCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (FCCC/SBI/2007/30)

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Emissions Data and Trends from Developed and Developing Countries ______________

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  1. Emissions Data and Trends from Developed and Developing Countries ______________ Pre COP Workshop for LDC Negotiators 29-30 November 2007 Bali, Indonesia Ilona Millar FIELD

  2. Where does the Data come from? • UNFCCC • National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (FCCC/SBI/2007/30) • National Communications from Annex I Parties (FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6 & add.1) • National communications from Non-Annex I Parties (FCCC/SBI/2005/18/Add.2) • IPCC • IEA • WRI • CAIT • Earth Trends • Navigating the Numbers

  3. Emission profiles vary greatly between countries

  4. Annex I Emissions 1990 - 2005

  5. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  6. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  7. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  8. Annex I Trends • Excluding LULUCF • Total AI -2.8% • EIT -35.2% • Non-EIT +11% • Including LULUCF • Total AI -4.6% • EIT -36.2% • Non-EIT +10%

  9. Annex I Trends including LULUCF • 1990-1995 • Fell 6.9% • 1995-2000 • Rose 1.3% • 2000-2004 • Rose 2.4%

  10. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  11. Ex LULUCF Australia +25.6 Canada +25.3 USA +16.3 Japan +6.9 EU -1.5 UK -14 Germany -18 Incl LULUCF Australia +4.9 Canada +54.2 USA +18.4 Japan +7.4 EU -4 UK -15.4 Germany -19.5 Changes in AI emissions 1990-2005

  12. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  13. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  14. Non-Annex I Emissions as reported based on best available data in 2005

  15. FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

  16. Non-AI emissionsGgtonnes CO2e • Botswana 9,291 -29,441 • Congo 1,374 -68,485 • China 4,057,306 3,649,827 • India 1,214,248 1,228,540 • Indonesia 323,262 487,380

  17. FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

  18. FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

  19. Analysis of Trends

  20. Figure 2.3. Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting Countries

  21. Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

  22. Source: WRI Cait

  23. What are the trends? • Global growth in emissions • Growth rates highest among developing countries • Contributing factors – GDP/Capita, Population, Energy intensity, Fuel mix

  24. Future Projections

  25. FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6

  26. % Percent change from 2000 Figure 3.1 WRI. Projected Emissions of GHGs in 2025

  27. (Stabilization Scenarios from WGIII, 4 May 2007, Figure SPM 5)

  28. FIELD www.field.org.uk ilona.millar@field.org.uk Tel: +44 20 7388-2117 Fax: +44 20 7388-2826 3 Endsleigh Street London WC1H 0DD United Kingdom

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