Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 January 2011 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights Australia: More widely scattered rainfall replaced the flooding rains observed across Queensland during the previous several weeks. The GFS forecasts above-average rainfall overspreading southeastern Australia during the upcoming week. Southern Africa:Scattered showers and thunderstorms were observed across southern Africa’s primary summer croplands during the previous week. The GFS forecasts continued showers and thunderstorms, with heavier rain north of South Africa, including Mozambique. South America: Heavy rainfall in southeastern Brazil contrasted with near to below average accumulations elsewhere. In Argentina, below average rainfall was observed along the Parana River Valley. The GFS forecasts heavy rainfall across key corn and soybean regions of Brazil, with near to below average rainfall persisting across Argentina.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. • La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. During the last 4-weeks (12 Dec 2010 – 8 Jan 2011), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 160°E and the South American coast, with departures more than 2.0°C below average in some areas. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status An emerging MJO signal was observed during the previous week. GEFS forecasts indicate a strengthening and eastward propagating MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR December rainfall improved moisture levels across most of southern Africa, but small pockets of persistent rainfall deficits remain across portions of South Africa’s maize triangle and far northern Mozambique. Below average precipitation was observed across much of South America, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, northeastern Argentina, and west-central Brazil. Three-month precipitation across eastern Brazil remained near to above average. Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across most of Australia during the previous 90 days, with much above average rainfall along Queensland’s eastern coast. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During 26 Dec 2010 – 1 Jan 2011, areas of anomalous rising motion (negative omega) were observed across southeastern Brazil, extreme eastern Australia, and eastern croplands of southern Africa.

9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, rainfall became more widely scattered across flooded regions of Queensland, though heavy rain was observed near the New South Wales border.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 15 days, much above average rainfall persisted across northern Australia and much of Queensland, causing extensive flooding.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 30 days, much above average rainfall was observed across northern Australia and Queensland, while a tropical disturbance brought heavy rainfall early in the period to coastal Western Australia.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly • Seasonably hot weather was observed across most of Australia, with below-average temperatures across eastern farmlands.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 10 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (10 – 16 Jan 2011), widespread above average rainfall is expected across southeastern Australia.

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 10 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (17 – 23 Jan 2011), Heavy monsoon rainfall is expected across northern Australia, with the possibility of heavy rains returning to Queensland.

17. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

18. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued across southern Africa’s primary corn croplands.

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, near to locally above average rainfall was observed across South Africa, particularly across the south-central maize triangle.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, above average rainfall was observed across the croplands of southern Africa.

21. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days

22. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Below average temperatures were observed across South Africa’s maize triangle.

23. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 10 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (10 – 16 Jan 2010), scattered showers are expected across South Africa’s maize triangle, with heavier rain to the north, including most of Mozambique.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 10 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (17 – 23 Jan 2011), heavier rainfall is expected across South Africa.

25. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

26. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Below average rainfall was observed in Mato Grosso do Sul, with heavier rainfall to the southeastn across Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. • Scattered showers were observed across Argentina’s farmlands, but below average accumulations persisted across the Parana River Valley. Brazil Argentina

27. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly • Generally below average rainfall fell across Brazil’s key croplands during the previous week, with areas of heavier rainfall observed from eastern Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais. • Generally below average rainfall was observed across northeastern and central Argentina. Brazil Argentina

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly • Below average monsoon rains were observed across central Brazil, with heavier rain observed along the eastern coastline and portions of southern Brazil. • Rainfall accumulations across most of Argentina were below average during the 30 day period. Brazil Argentina

29. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days

30. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Near to above average temperatures were observed throughout Brazil during the previous week.

31. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Near average temperatures were observed across Argentina during the previous week.

32. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 10 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly • For Days 1-7 (10 – 16 Jan 2011), increased rainfall is expected across central and southeastern Brazil, with near to below average rainfall in Argentina.

33. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 10 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly • For Days 8-14 (17 – 23 Jan 2011) drier weather is forecasted across east central Argentina, with near average rainfall across southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Heavy rainfall is expected across north central Brazil.

34. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information