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Using Data For Decision Making

Using Data For Decision Making. Juliana Víctor-Ahuchogu Global HIV/AIDS Program World Bank. Critical questions in Decision Making. Are we doing the right thing? Are we doing it right? Are we doing enough of it?. Nigeria: HIV Prevalence and sources of transmission.

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Using Data For Decision Making

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  1. Using Data For Decision Making Juliana Víctor-Ahuchogu Global HIV/AIDS Program World Bank

  2. Critical questions in Decision Making • Are we doing the right thing? • Are we doing it right? • Are we doing enough of it?

  3. Nigeria: HIV Prevalence and sources of transmission

  4. Nigeria: HAF 1 & 2 Funding by Thematic Areas

  5. HIV PREVALENCE AND TRANSMISSION SOURCES IN GHANA Adult male infections from Gen Pop Adult male Infections from SW Sources: Cote et al, 2005

  6. HIV PREVALENCE, TRANSMISSION SOURCES AND FUNDING IN ACCRA, GHANA 99.2% 100% 78% 76% 80% 60% 40% 24% 20% 2.2% .08% 0% Sex workers General population HIV prevalence Transmission sources Funding Sources: NACP, GAC, MAP, 2005

  7. HIV PREVALENCE AND TRANSMISSION SOURCES IN KENYA Infections from SW Infections from Gen Pop Sources: Pisani et al, 2003

  8. HIV PREVALENCE AND TRANSMISSION SOURCES IN ZAMBIA Infections from SW, clients, soldiers, truckers Infections from Gen Pop Sources: Shields, 2005

  9. Why is there a mismatch between evidence and response? • What are the critical challenges • How can these challenges be overcome?

  10. What we don’t know • Or what we don’t know enough about • Quality of service – e.g. Loss to follow up • Coverage numbers i.e. over reporting, Under reporting, no reporting • Dose – response relationship of BCC e.g. Uganda • Size estimates of core drivers • Effective models of intervention

  11. Application of Tools and Methods to Answer Key Questions • What is the current and projected prevalence of HIV/AIDS? • What is the current coverage of interventions? • How will the prevalence of HIV/AIDS affect the demographic characteristics of the country? • What resources do we require to fully cover all HIV/AIDS programs? • Given the resources which we are likely to have, how should we allocate resources?

  12. How do the Tools Fit? EPP Model/ Workbook Method What is the prevalence of HIV/AIDS? ANC Surveillance Data Census/UN Pop Division Estimates How will the demography be affected? Spectrum UNAIDS model epidemic patterns including MoT modelling What resources are required? Resource Needs Model Costing and coverage data How should we allocate resources? Existing effectiveness data Goals

  13. Sources of Data • National and sub national M&E systems critical • Investment in M&E critical for program improvement and effectiveness • Operations Research is critical • Impact evaluation is essential

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