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EAST ASIA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVANCED FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECT

EAST ASIA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVANCED FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECT. Proposed International Program Under Both WWRP/THORPEX and TMRP At the WMO TC Landfall Process Workshop In Macao, March 2005. The purpose of this program. To extend the lead time for tropical cyclone forecasts

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EAST ASIA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVANCED FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECT

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  1. EAST ASIA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVANCED FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECT Proposed International Program Under Both WWRP/THORPEX and TMRP At the WMO TC Landfall Process Workshop In Macao, March 2005

  2. The purpose of this program • To extend the lead time for tropical cyclone forecasts • To provide probabilistic forecasts with the new THORPEX synthetic forecast system through enhancing the links and efforts of both WWRP/THORPEX and TMRP projects. • Three key components: Targeting Observations, Data Assimilation, and TC-TIGGE.

  3. Targeting Observations • No field experiments have been done for tropical cyclones in Asia. • We are developingthe wet version of the adjoint system, to apply for the intermittent convective clouds and circulation • This project will focus on a special field program East Asian Special Typhoon EXperiment (hopefully in 2008), which will be coordinated with several other observational efforts, such as DOTSTAR, Wx Scout, KEOP and China TC landfall program.

  4. Trajectories of all driftsonds released from Pohnpei and Wake Island from 6/18 to 6/30 2004 at three altitudes (19500 m, 18000 m, and 16500 m) (Courtesy by Dr. W.-C. Lee)

  5. Typhoon Mindulle (2004) dropsonde distribution on 6/24 and 6/26 2004, driftsondes were released once a day beginning at 6/18/2004 Color represents the launch date, symbols represent the launch site (Courtesy by Dr. W.-C. Lee)

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