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Preliminary Matrix Analysis of Oil Consumption and Deposits

This draft outline presents a summary, data source, modeling, and analysis of oil consumption and deposits. The impact of base oil on delta OC is explored, along with correlations and precision. The analysis includes 32 tests and 24 PC10 oils.

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Preliminary Matrix Analysis of Oil Consumption and Deposits

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  1. Preliminary C13 matrix analysis Elisa Santos October 7th, 2005 Draft 4

  2. Outline • Summary • Data Source • Modeling • Analysis by parameter • Oil Consumption: • Delta OC Pages 8 - 15 • OC % Increase Pages 16 - 23 • Deposits Pages 24 - 43 • CorrelationsPage 44 - 45 • Precision Page 46 • Plots by parameter Pages 48 to 59 • Extras Page 61 - …

  3. Summary (1) • Statistical evidence that Lab F is severe on Delta OCand OC % Inc. • Analysis with 32 tests shows that Lab A is mild for Delta OC • Lab B is severe for TLC and TLHC • Additional Lab differences • UWD: Lab A & Lab B; Lab A & Lab B; Some indication of Lab B severity • TGC: Lab A & Lab G • TGF: Lab A & Lab F ; Lab A & Lab G

  4. Summary (2) • Impact of Base Oil on Delta OCseems to vary with Technology • Delta OC increases with Base Oil (1,2,3) for Technology B • And decreases with Basel Oil (1,2,3) for Technology A • In general, Deposits for Base Oil 3 are higher compared to Base Oil 2 and Base Oil 1 • Correlation of Delta OC with Deposits is very weak: ~ 0.36 or lower, most of them not significantly different from zero • Precision: • E p is greater than 1 for TLC and TLHC • ~ 0.85 for TGC • ~ 0.65 for Delta OC and TGF

  5. Data Source • TMC file with 32 tests; 26 valid matrix tests; 5 valid mini matrix tests; 1 extra test • 24 PC10 oils + 2 Oil A + 3 Oil D + 3 PG10 G • Test 55017 was eliminated from the analysis because was operationally invalid. • Test 55739 was aborted. 24 tests for PC10 oils

  6. Modeling • 24 PC10 Oils: • The model used for the analysis includes Lab, Stand(Lab), Technology Type and Basel Oil Type • PC10 Oils + mini matrix + PC10G: • The model used for the analysis includes Lab, Stand(Lab) and Oil Type • Transformations were used when deemed necessary to satisfy the assumptions of the model and to allow for performing valid tests of hypothesis. • The tests are corrected for multiple comparisons • With respect to the plots with confidence intervals: if the confidence intervals overlap then there are no significant differences between Labs (or Oils). • Precision is the residual standard error of the final model for each parameter. The estimates are given in their original scale.

  7. Oil ConsumptionDelta OC OC % INC

  8. Delta OC: 24 tests • Lab differences • Statistical evidence that Lab F is severe • No differences between Stands inside Labs • Impact of Base Oil on Delta OCseems to vary with Technology • Delta OC increases with Base Oil (1,2,3) for Technology B • And decreases with Basel Oil (1,2,3) for Technology A • Final Model: Lab, Technology, Base Oil and interaction of Technology & Base Oil

  9. Impact of Base Oil on Delta OC • It is observed that Delta OC increases when moving from Base Oil 1 to Base Oil 2 to Base Oil 3 for Technology B.  • There is statistical evidence that Delta OC for Base Oil 3 is larger than the other Base Oils. • It is observed that Delta OC decreases when moving from Base Oil 1 to Base Oil 2 to Base Oil 3 for Technology A.  • Note, however, that there is not enough statistical evidence to conclude that the Base Oils are Different. • For instance, the difference between A1 and A3 is ~20, standard error is 6.6, 95% conf interval for the difference is A1 - A3 is [ -1.68; 41.61]. For the difference to be statistically significant this interval must not include zero.

  10. Details for Delta OC: 24 tests The impact of Base Oil on Delta OC seems to vary with Technology Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  11. Details for Delta OC: 24 tests • No transformation used • … but one may prefer to use square root • The conclusions do not seem to change after applying the transformation • Rsquare adj: 81% • Precision: 6.5 • Statistical evidence that Lab F is severe Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  12. LN Delta OC: 32 tests • Ln transformation was used, but one may prefer the square root • Final model: Lab and Oil Type • Rsquare adj: 79% • Precision: 6.82 • Statistical evidence that Lab F is severe • Statistical evidence that Lab A is milder than Lab G • Evidence that Lab A is milder than the other labs Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  13. Details for LN Delta OC • Oil discrimination at 5% level • Lab and Oil discrimination may change a bit according to the transformation chosen

  14. 95% conf. limits to help visualize Lab differences Look for all comparisons with Lab A: They are all to the left side of the plot Showing that Lab A is always milder compared to the other labs Look for all comparisons with Lab F: All conf intervals are on the left side of the plot and do not overlap zero

  15. 95% conf. limits to help visualize Oil differences

  16. Oil Consumption % IncreaseConclusions are similar to Delta OCon page 60 seeAssociation between OC % Inc. and Initial Oil OC 100 – 150 hoursThis seems to be one of the criticismswith respect to the use of OC % Inc.

  17. sqrt OC % INC: 24 tests • Lab differences • Statistical evidence that Lab F is severe • No differences between Stands inside Labs • Impact of Base Oil on Delta OC • It varies with Technology • Delta OC increases with Base Oil (1,2,3) for Technology B • And decreases with Basel Oil (1,2,3) for Technology A • Final Model: Lab, Technology, Base Oil and interaction of Technology & Base Oil

  18. Details for sqrt OC % INC: 24 tests • Square root transformation used • … but one may prefer LN • Rsquare adj: 82% • Precision: 22.61 • at 5% level: Statistical evidence that Lab F is severe Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  19. Details for sqrt OC % INC : 24 tests Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different The impact of Base Oil on Delta OC depends upon Technology

  20. LN OC % INC: 32 tests • Ln transformation was used, but one may prefer the square root • Final Model: Lab and Oil Type; Rsquare adj: 77% • Precision: 22.73 • Statistical evidence that Lab F is severe • Statistical evidence that Lab A is milder than Lab G, but for the other labs the differences are not significant at 5% level. Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  21. Details for LN OC % INC: 32 tests • Oil discrimination at 5% level • Lab and Oil discrimination may change a bit according to the transformation chosen

  22. 95% conf. limits to help visualize Lab differences Look for all comparisons with Lab A: They are all to the left side of the plot Showing that Lab A is always milder compared to the other labs Look for all comparisons with Lab F: All conf intervals are on the left side of the plot and do not overlap zero, except for one that is F minus and therefore is on the right side of the plot

  23. 95% conf. limits to help visualize Oil differences

  24. Deposits For CLW 6 outliers were in cylinder 1

  25. Outlier screened UWD: scrnd UWD 24 tests Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers • No transformation used • Final Model: Lab and Base Oil; Rsquare adj: 63% • Precision: 8.15 • No significant differences among Stands or Technologies • Lab discrimination: Lab A & Lab B; Lab A & Lab G • Some indication that Lab B may be severe compared to the other labs. Differences not significant at 5% Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  26. Outlier screened UWD: scrnd UWD 24 tests • Impact of Base Oil on scrnd UWD • Higher values of scrnd UWD correspond to Base Oil 3 Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  27. Outlier screened UWD: 32 tests Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers • No transformation used • Final model: Lab and Oil type; Rsquare adj: 55% • Precision: 8.5 • No significant differences among Stands inside Labs • Lab discrimination: Lab A & Lab B; Lab A & Lab G; Lab B & Lab D • Potential severity of Lab B. Differences not significant at 5% Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  28. scrnd UWD: 32 tests Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  29. Outlier screened TGC (scrnd TGC): 24 tests • No transformation used • Final model: Lab and Base Oil; Rsquare adj: 58% • Precision: 5.85 • No significant differences among Stands or Technologies • Lab discrimination: Lab A & Lab G Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  30. Outlier screened TGC (scrnd TGC): 24 tests • Impact of Base Oil on scrnd TGC • Higher values of scrnd TGC correspond to Base Oil 3; borderline significant

  31. Outlier screened TGC (scrnd TGC):32 tests Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers • No transformation used • Final Model: Lab and Oil Type; Rsquare adj: 56% • Precision: 5.74 • No significant differences among Stands inside labs • Lab discrimination: Lab A & Lab G Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  32. Outlier screened TGC (scrnd TGC):32 tests • No Oil differences; borderline discrimination for Oil D & PC10 C; Oil D & PC10 F Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  33. Outlier screened TLC (scrnd TLC): 24 tests Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers • No transformation used • Final Model: Lab, Technology, Base Oil and interaction of Technology & Base Oil • Rsquare adj: 63% • Precision: 4.02 • No significant differences among Stands • Statistical evidence that Lab B is severe

  34. Outlier screened TLC (scrnd TLC): 24 tests • Impact of Base Oil on scrnd TLC depends upon Technology • Technology B/Base oil 3 seems significantly higher than the other Technology/ Base Oil combinations, except for Technology A/Base oil 3 Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  35. Outlier screened TLC (scrnd TLC): 32 tests Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers • No transformation used • Final model: Lab and Oil Type • Rsquare adj: 52% • Precision: 4.25 • No significant differences among Stands inside Labs • Statistical evidence that Lab B is severe

  36. Outlier screened TLC (scrnd TLC): 32 tests • Oil discrimination: • PC10 F & all the other oils, except for oil A & PC10 C • Oil A & PC10 A

  37. Outlier screened TGF (scrnd TGF):24 tests Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers • No transformation used • Final Model: Lab; Rsquare adj: 47% • Precision: 7.32 • No significant differences among Stands,Technologies or Base Oil • Lab discrimination: Lab A & Lab F; Lab A & Lab G; Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  38. Outlier screened TGF (scrnd TGF):32 tests Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers • No transformation used • Final model: Lab and Oil Type; Rsquare adj: 47% • Precision: 6.99 • No significant differences among Stands or Oil types • Lab discrimination: Lab A & Lab F; Lab A & Lab G

  39. Outlier screened TGF (scrnd TGF):32 tests No Oil Discrimination

  40. Outlier screened TLHC (scrnd TLHC):24 tests Similar results are obtained for the analysis before screening for outliers • No transformation used • Final Model: Lab, Technology, Base Oil and interaction of Technology & Base Oil • Rsquare adj: 80% • Precision: 3.05 • No significant differences among Stands • Statistical evidence that Lab B is severe

  41. Outlier screened TLHC (scrnd TLHC):24 tests • Impact of Base Oil on scrnd TLHC depends upon Technology • Technology B/Base oil 3 seems significantly higher than the other Technology/ Base Oil combinations Levels not connected by same letter are significantly different

  42. No transformation used Final Model: Lab, Oil Type; Rsquare adj: 69% Precision: 3.45 No significant differences among Stands Statistical evidence that Lab B is severe Outlier screened TLHC (scrnd TLHC):32 tests

  43. scrnd TLHC:32 testsOil discrimination:

  44. Correlations

  45. Pairwise Correlations

  46. Precision • Desirable values for E p are greater than 1 • E p is greater than 1 for TLC and TLHC MAD survey indicates the maximum acceptable difference between two test results on the same formulation

  47. Plots of the performance measures by Oil

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