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Solution-Focused Risk Assessment and its Challenges

Solution-Focused Risk Assessment and its Challenges. Bruce K. Hope “21 st Century Environmental Risk Assessment “ SETAC ~ 33 rd Annual Meeting ~ Long Beach, CA ~ November 13, 2012. Overview. Do we have a problem or not? Finkel’s “signal of harm”

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Solution-Focused Risk Assessment and its Challenges

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  1. Solution-Focused Risk Assessment and its Challenges Bruce K. Hope “21st Century Environmental Risk Assessment “ SETAC ~ 33rd Annual Meeting ~ Long Beach, CA ~ November 13, 2012

  2. Overview • Do we have a problem or not? • Finkel’s“signal of harm” • If so, what alternatives are there for a solution? • Preferably several alternatives • Each offering a different mix of beneficial and adverse outcomes • What are the chances of these outcomes? • To choose a solution, a decision-maker needs to • Be given an impartial, unbiased assessment of each alternative • Balance chance of a beneficial versus that of an adverse outcome • Maximize “net social benefit” (including “net environmental benefit”) • Which is largely a policy choice…

  3. Two Approaches & Three Challenges TRADITIONAL SOLUTION-FOCUSED  IS IT A PROBLEM? IT’S A PROBLEM! Causal assessment Predictive assessment Adverse outcome only Threshold (hazard) methods Alternative solutions are identified {A, B, C … x}  Probability of beneficial & adverse outcomes for each alternative Is there / will there be an adverse outcome?  Signal of Harm? If so, solution focuses on that adverse outcome alone Decision selects alternative with greatest “net social benefit” based on more information

  4.  The Problem • How do we know that a “signal of harm” indicates a problem? • Discussion before calculation • First, agree existence (or not) of a problem, at least in principle • Negotiation, mediation, expert elicitation, workshops, etc. • Scope the source (cause) and future of agreed problem • Identify solutions and opportunities with respect to agreed problem • Save calculating for the solutions, not the problem • An affirmative role for Problem Formulation • Can be much more than just a precursor to a risk assessment

  5.  The Cause • Understanding the cause of a problem isn’t mandatory • We can just treat the symptoms, not the disease • But knowing the cause may lead to a better solution • But “cause” can too easily morph into “liability” • Implication is that “cause” will bear cost of solution • Making attribution a tall hurdle on the path to a solution • No easy answers but … • Consider cause only in context of identifying a better solution • Leave any blame / liability discussion for later • “Cause” may not be as big an issue given a good solution?

  6.  The Assessment • Worst-case, point estimate assessments will no longer be useful • Each assessment of each alternative needs to be • Complete • Full distributions of probabilities for both beneficial and adverse outcomes (i.e., “speculative” risk assessments) • Unbiased • All credible values, not just the upper-bound, high-end, no observed, etc. • Policy neutral • Exclude policy-based values; don’t set policy inside the assessment; leave that for the decision-makers • Perception + facts drive decisions, so risk communication matters

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