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RETIREMENT HOUSING OPPORTUNITY+STICK+CARROT. Matthew Fox 9th July, 2015. THE OLD WORLD. Over 33% of HA tenants over 65 In next decade, 35-55’s actually decline Within 10 years, 25% of total population 1% of over 60’s in Retirement Living vs 17% in US
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RETIREMENT HOUSING OPPORTUNITY+STICK+CARROT Matthew Fox 9th July, 2015
THE OLD WORLD • Over 33% of HA tenants over 65 • In next decade, 35-55’s actually decline • Within 10 years, 25% of total population • 1% of over 60’s in Retirement Living vs 17% in US • 25% say that will go to Retirement Living • Over 50% under-occupy • 7,000 homes pa vs 30,000 in 1980’s.
DEVELOPER RESPONSE • Retirement Housing is specialist • Larger flats so fewer units • Management grief • Tricky for sale market • Happy, Smiling Young Families • Not a private rental market • Older residents are good tenants.
STICK • Fresh air of Transparency • % of Homes Under-occupied • Lost Value of Under-occupied Homes • % Churn • Hidden Property Value.
CARROT • Won’t move if rent will double • Have to offer a Social Rent • Cannot because no Grant • So, nothing is developed • Use the Historic Unit • Rent Historic at Affordable or Market and …. • Cross-Subsidise.
CARROT (diced) • Impact on Benefit Bill • House only those not on Benefits • Incentives for more downsizing • Essential element of large, multiuse sites • Length of Social Commitment • Revenue Funding / Service Charges • Value for Money / Counter-factual.
ASSISTIVE TECH • Smart Homes • Sensors for Energy • Sensors for Activity • Reminders • Staff Savings.
DATA • Age of Old People • Under-Occupancy • Stair Problems • Garden Problems • Now / in 5 / in 10 / in 15 • Planned Development.
STRATEGY • Well-being not just Homes • Multi-Stakeholder • Homes • Advice • Assistive Tech • Delivery Plan.
SO WHAT IS RETIREMENT HOUSING? IT’S THE BIGGEST…….